Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s big betting race the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket.
Newmarket’s two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival kicks off on Friday. The feature race is the Group 1 Bet365 Fillies' Mile (3:35), part of a seven-race card. It includes a strong undercard of Group races and the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap.
ITV4 will televise five races from Newmarket, plus three races from York and two from Chepstow’s Persian War meeting. The highlight from Chepstow is the Grade 2 Unibet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (3:15).
On Saturday, Newmarket hosts day two of the Future Champions Festival. The top juvenile colts take centre stage in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes (3:00). This race has produced great winners like Nijinsky, Mill Reef, The Minstrel, Frankel and City Of Troy. For many punters, the betting highlight is the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (3:40).
Cesarewitch Handicap
The Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the biggest staying handicaps in British flat racing. Held in October, it’s part of the Autumn Double alongside the Cambridgeshire Handicap. The race covers a demanding 2 miles and 2 furlongs, making it one of the longest flat races in Britain.
This race typically attracts a large field with a mix of seasoned stayers and improving young horses. Its unique nature often draws jumps trainers, as it’s a perfect test for future hurdlers.
Predicting the Cesarewitch can be tricky due to its field size and distance, adding to its appeal for punters. The ground conditions also play a crucial role, especially if it’s softer in autumn.
Until 2022, you could expect a 30+ field for the Cesarewitch. That year, only 21 horses ran, but last year saw normal service with 31 competitors. As of Monday’s final confirmation stage, only 28 horses remain, potentially leading to one of the smallest fields in the race’s history. More worrying from the British perspective half of the 28 entries are trained in Ireland. Back in 2002 when there were 36 runners just one runner was trained in Ireland.
Cesarewitch Trends
The Cesarewitch has long been one of my favourite trend races. Here’s why:
Digging deeper into horseracebase.
- Horses drawn in stalls 25+ are 0 winners from 105 runners, with only 7 places.
- Horses with zero wins on the prevailing going are 0 winners from 140 runners, with 15 places.
- Horses whose last race was over a distance between 1m 5½ f and 2m are 0 winners from 163 runners, with 17 places.
These trends have been useful, but the likely number of runners this year means we can discard the stall trend, which is disappointing.
Since 2008, horses whose latest run was at Ayr, Goodwood, Haydock, and York have produced 2 winners from 129 runners, 14 places) with an A/E= 0.32.
Contenders:
The bookies have taken no chances with Willie Mullins trained 6-year-old, Sea Of Sands, who is currently 4/1 with Bet365. You can see why the layers are being so cautious about the ex-German gelding who was an easy winner over hurdles on stable debut at Listowel 17 days ago after 26 month absence.
Sixandahalf, third in the Irish Cesarewitch, may come over from Ireland. The 9/1 available with Bet365 looks fair given her current form.
Last year’s winner, The Shunter, is 10/1 with Bet365. He deserves respect, but the ground is likely to be quicker than it was 12 months ago. Trainer Emmet Mullins could also saddle Jacovec Cavern (7/1), who has snuck into the race at the bottom of the weights. Hayley Turner is booked for the ride. It’s worth noting he also holds an entry in a two mile handicap at Naas on Sunday.
Premiere Ligne (12/1) has finished runner-up in his last four starts since winning at Lingfield in May. He proved his stamina for the distance when second in the Cesarewitch Trial last month, making him an interesting contender if the ground continues to dry out. Yard won the race in 2016.
Manxman (14/1) is a likeable and consistent stayer who has also sneaked into the race at the bottom of the weights.
Arc-winning jockey Rossa Ryan has been booked for 2022 winner Run For Oscar (16/1). He’s 12lb higher than when winning the race in 2022 but the booking of Rossa Ryan has piqued my interest and I think he’ll be shorter than 16/1 on Saturday.
Cesarewitch Handicap Verdict
I must confess I haven't looked in much detail at this year’s contest. The ante-post favourite, Sea Of Sands, was on my shortlist, but at his current odds, I have to take him on. I have my eye on a couple of horses and will wait to see what the going is. At the time of writing this piece it’s good at Newmarket and not much rain is forecast.
Wednesday Racing
If you’re looking to have a bet on Wednesday, here are a couple of pointers. The first comes from one of my NH systems, which revolves around last-time-out winners, running within four days, and in the same class or lower. Since 2008, this system has produced 194 winners from 415 runners (47%) with a +58.02 profit and 292 places (70%).
Ludlow 4:35 – Hard As Nails won a Stratford handicap hurdle (2m 2 ½ f) just two days ago. She carries a 7lb penalty for that win, but she can follow up if running. Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, has a great record with these quick turnaround horses (4 winners from 5 runners, +2.64).
Nottingham 4:50 – Steel Tiger, carrying top weight, possibly didn’t stay the 1m 4f trip or didn’t appreciate the quick ground when last seen at Salisbury 120 days ago. He’s been gelded since and while soft ground is an unknown, his dam won on soft in France, suggesting conditions may suit on handicap debut. Yard is 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +13.83, 4 places with 3-year-old first time geldings on handicap debut.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John