Hi all,
In today’s piece, I’ll reveal which French-trained filly is still on track for Classic glory in 2025. Plus, I preview the Listed Beckford Stakes at Bath.
Classic Glory Beckons For Zarigana
Before the Prix Marcel Boussac, I called Zarigana a “superstar in the making.” Despite her nose defeat on Sunday, I stand by that. It was just one of those things—she led a stride before and a stride after the line.
I hope she targets the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, though more likely she stays in France for their version. Whichever route connections go, I expect her to win and believe she’ll do a fillies’ classic double in 2025. Classic glory beckons for Zarigana.
Henderson Bags Most Expensive Jumps Recruit
Nicky Henderson secured the most expensive jumps recruit ever, spending €1.4 million (£1.2m) on Palladium at the Arqana Sales. The German Derby winner is also poised to be the classiest flat horse to switch to hurdling this season.
While the German Derby form doesn't seem the strongest, Henderson’s belief in Palladium—purchased on behalf of Lady Bamford—suggests he sees significant potential. The horse looked a good jumping prospect in the ring, and if he takes to hurdling, he’ll be a major contender in next year's Triumph Hurdle.
With seven Triumph Hurdle wins under his belt, Henderson knows what it takes to win the race. Palladium is now 14/1 for Cheltenham, and although those odds don't appeal, a successful hurdle debut would see him shorten quickly.
For now, the seller seems to have gotten the better deal, but time will tell what this exciting recruit can achieve over hurdles.
Betting Smarter: The Power of Patience
For both new and experienced punters, the ability to exercise patience and discipline is crucial. The hardest part of betting, especially in horse racing, is waiting for the right opportunity. Often, after spending time analysing races, the urge to place a bet becomes strong, even when nothing stands out. That’s where the trouble begins.
Many bettors find it hard to accept the idea of not betting. Instead of stepping back and waiting for the next day, we start justifying weaker choices. That’s a key difference between winning and losing punters.
To reach a point where you confidently decide between betting or not, you need strong, clear rules. Understanding why you place or avoid a bet is crucial, and tracking both winning and losing bets helps you learn from them.
Having a solid foundation of rules makes all the difference. Start simple. For example, only bet on horses that have run well at the track before. That one rule can eliminate many risky bets.
Personally, I concentrate on the higher class of racing, mostly Class 2 or better. I’m not suggesting others follow this example. However, I do suggest you specialise even its Class 4 or 5 handicaps on the all-weather.
Assessing ground conditions can be trickier. You can’t always predict how the ground will be until race day or even until a few races have been run. That’s why waiting for confirmation is key. If the ground isn’t ideal, and your horse runs early, it should be an automatic no-bet.
By sticking to these rules, you avoid unnecessary risks and make smarter, more informed decisions.
Thursday Racing
Continuing the theme above, I rarely bet Monday to Thursday unless there’s a big race or meeting. That’s why you’ve seen fewer daily selections from me. Yes, I’m laying horses, but backing? No, I just have no interest in moderate racing.
Some pundits, like Hugh Taylor, specialize in all-weather racing and do it successfully. Fair play to them. But it doesn’t interest me anymore, so I don’t bet on it.
There are no horses on course for Classic glory running today. Thursday’s most valuable race is the Listed British Stallion Studs EBF Beckford Stakes (3:10) at Bath. There’s £36,862 up for grabs for the winner, and 11 fillies and mares are declared to run.
You can tell winter's approaching when jump racing returns to Exeter. Well, it’s back this afternoon.
Bath
I haven’t had a bet at Bath in ages and never really look at races run there. However, the Beckford Stakes is worthy of investigation.
3:10 – Beckford Stakes (Listed) – 1m 6f
Nicky Henderson, who I mentioned earlier, sends out Grade 1-winning hurdler Marie’s Rock. She wasn’t disgraced when finishing a 4-length 5th of 10 in a Group 3 at York in May on her flat debut. While she may need the run, she can't be easily discounted if she settles in this company.
Fairy Glen and Lmay were vying for early bird favouritism. Fairy Glen was just beaten by a short head in a Listed race at Longchamp last month and should be competitive, especially on soft ground. Lmay finished a close 4th in a German Group 2 (1m 4f) last time and is back up in trip for last year’s winning yard.
Forest Fairy and Meribella represent Arc-winning trainer Ralph Beckett. Judging by jockey bookings, Forest Fairy appears to be the stable's first choice. After winning the Listed Cheshire Oaks in May, she’s been well beaten in tougher races but has a good chance back down in class. Meribella has more to prove on Official Ratings and soft ground but comes into this in good form after winning a Doncaster handicap last month.
Loughville enters the race following an improved performance, winning a soft ground Newbury handicap 20 days ago. The 4-year-old should handle the ground and could make the frame.
Sinology was a well-beaten 4th in a Group 3 at Newmarket recently but might improve on softer ground and with a stamina test. I think she remains capable of better than she’s shown so far and is an each-way option.
If you want my previews and selections for Newmarket Future Champions Weekend, you can get them here.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John