Shadow Of Light: Miler or Sprinter?

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at a controversial Saturday at Newmarket.

There was a controversial conclusion to Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket. Personally, I found the two days underwhelming, reflecting this flat season as a whole. I had high hopes for a vintage year, but it never really took off, and now we’re heading into winter with little to be excited about.

Godolphin Strike Back

Godolphin bounced back with a win in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile on Friday and followed up in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on Saturday. It’s been a subdued season for Godolphin, although they did win the 2,000 Guineas in the spring. However, they seem to have a promising group of juveniles coming through.

Desert Flower Blooms in the Fillies' Mile

Desert Flower put in a strong performance to win the Fillies' Mile by 4 lengths. Now unbeaten in four starts, she beat a decent field and is a best-priced 4/1 for next year’s 1,000 Guineas, just one point behind Lake Victoria. Although bred for a mile, she was strongest at the end of Friday’s race, and I believe she’ll stay 1m 2f as a 3-year-old, though the Oaks distance (1m 4f) might be a stretch.

Trainer Charlie Appleby will be excited about Desert Flower’s prospects for next season, with classic glory on the horizon. We could have a strong group of 3-year-old fillies next year, including Lake Victoria, Desert Flower, and Lake Victoria’s stablemate Fairy Godmother, who impressed at Royal Ascot but hasn’t been seen since. Don’t forget Zarigana, who I think might prove the best of the bunch next season.

Godolphin also introduced another potentially nice prospect on Friday, as Verse Of Love won the opening fillies' maiden (7f) at Newmarket. The daughter of Siyouni showed greenness but still beat 14 rivals easily by five lengths. She’s one to watch for next year.

Shadow Of Light Strikes in the Dewhurst

Many of us were looking forward to seeing The Lion In Winter take on Shadow Of Light in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, but we learned Saturday morning that the favourite was a non-runner due to a bruised foot. The Lion In Winter’s absence dampened the race’s excitement, but we still got a fascinating contest and a worthy winner in Shadow Of Light.

Ryan Moore almost stole the race from the front with Expanded on the near side. Expanded,The Lion In Winter’s stablemate, put in a great run considering it was only his second career start. He could be one to watch for next year’s 2,000 Guineas given he handled the track so well.

Shadow Of Light’s stablemate, Ancient Truth, ran well but was a bit keen after a three-month break. Despite this, he was only beaten by half a length, and it was a good effort.

As for Shadow Of Light, he won from a tricky position on the wrong side of the track, showing stamina to back up his speedy Middle Park Stakes success. He should stay a mile, and his connections will likely aim him at the 2,000 Guineas. The question remains how he’ll handle much quicker ground as he’s very effective with some ease.

The best horse on the day won, though it was a messy race. I suspect time will show this was a strong renewal of the Dewhurst. While Godolphin celebrated, Aidan O’Brien will be pleased with Expanded’s performance. And I still believe The Lion In Winter is the best colt we’ve seen this season.

Cesarewitch Whip Controversy Mars Thrilling Finish

Alphonse Le Grande won a thrilling but controversial Cesarewitch Handicap, edging out Manxman by a nose. However, the race is now overshadowed by a whip controversy. Jockey Jamie Powell used his whip ten times—four more than the allowed limit—and as a result, Alphonse Le Grande could be disqualified when the whip review committee meets on Tuesday.

The field split into two groups in the straight, with Alphonse Le Grande leading the near side and Manxman heading the far side. The pair fought out a cracking finish, but instead of celebrating, we’re left with controversy.

I was rooting for Alphonse Le Grande in the closing stages, not because I backed him but because I had layed Manxman. When they crossed the line, I thought Manxman had held on, but the photo showed otherwise. Then came the whip drama.

While I wasn’t offended by Powell’s ride in real-time, the rules are the rules. If he hit the horse ten times, disqualification is inevitable. I’m not a fan of the number of strikes rule as they still allow connections the opportunity to keep a race even if a jockey is three over the limit. If you’re going to have them why not have seven strikes at that’s all your allowed. Anymore and your automatically disqualified.

However, as Kevin Blake mentioned on Twitter/X, Powell’s tenth strike might not have connected with the horse. If that’s the case, Alphonse Le Grande could keep the race. The outcome isn’t as clear-cut as it seemed on Saturday night. Unless whip review committee have better images to work with then it won’t be easy to prove that all the jockey’s strikes touched the horse.

Unfortunately, if Alphonse Le Grande loses the race, it will be cold comfort for Manxman’s backers, who won’t receive any winnings.

Monday Racing

There’s no Shadow Of Light running today, but plenty of low-grade action if that’s your thing. I don’t criticize those who enjoy it, but aside from laying, I tend to leave it alone these days.

Musselburgh

3:20 – Reel Her In got off the mark on her fifth attempt when winning a handicap here (1m 6f) 12 days ago. She looked like she needed every bit of that trip, so the step back up to 2m should suit. She's only 1lb higher in the weights and still open to improvement at this modest level. She’ll be a short price, but anything above evens looks worth a play.

3:55 – This fillies' handicap (7f) is the most valuable race of the day. Rockymountainway (3/1 William Hill) has been steadily progressive as a 3-year-old and posted a career-best when winning at Carlisle (soft) 46 days ago. The handicapper has raised her 11lb for that effort, but she could be capable of defying the rise.  Nibras Angel, the top weight, returned from a 4-month absence with a solid run, finishing 3rd of 10 at Newmarket (7f) just 9 days ago. Musselburgh’s sharp 7f may not suit her running style, but she's down to a competitive mark and has a better chance than her odds of 10/1(bet365) suggest.

For those interested in how my lay qualifiers have been faring we’ve had 18 successful lays in the 7 days. It’s a service for those looking for long term steady profits. At then end of the flat season I’ll be switching focus to the jumps and have a laying angle which is just as profitable as its flat counterpart. If you want consistent profits from your betting, you can get my lay selections here.

In Tuesday's column I'll be switching my focus to the jumps by looking back at Chepstow's Persian War Meeting.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John