Hi all,
It’s Champions Day on Saturday, so guess what I’m I going to look at the winter jumping game today.
Chepstow’s Persian War meeting took place on Friday and Saturday. I didn’t watch it live but spent Monday reviewing the races, looking for future jumping winners.
What Did We Learn at Chepstow?
Early in the winter jumps campaign, be careful with the “shorties” unless you have solid info. Paul Nicholls’ yard seems slow out of the blocks. He had twelve runners, and none won. Nine of those runners went off at 9/2 or shorter. His horses look like they’re a couple of weeks off their best.
The winners were spread across the board. Fourteen trainers won the 15 races at Chepstow. David Pipe stood out with two wins. He needs a good season.
Sadly, we lost Cuthbert Dibble in Saturday’s Listed Novice Chase. The 6-year-old, a talented hurdler, was leading but broke down and was fatally injured. Heartbreaking for his connections as he had a big future over fences.
October Trainers
A few trainers’ runners look well forward. Kim Bailey and Sam Thomas both had winners at Chepstow. Thomas also had the first two home in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on Sunday.
I checked Horseracebase for trainers who have done well in October in the past two years.
Both Bailey and Thomas have strong records this month. Nigel Twiston-Davies is always in form during October, so no surprise there. Nicky Richards and Alan King also have profitable October records. Incidentally Nicky Richards is 11-30 37% +26 with his handicappers in October.
Future Jumping Winners
I’m cleaning out my tracker getting rid of any remaining flat horses apart from juveniles with next season in mind. Now my focus is firmly on the NH sphere and future jumping winners.
Here’s a brief look back at the action at Chepstow on Friday and Saturday and Ffos Las on Sunday.
Chepstow – Friday
Chepstow was more of a watching brief for me. I backed Good Boy Bobby in the veterans’ chase, but he only finished third. However, concentrating on the flat meant I missed Destroytheevidence on Friday.
Kim Bailey had trained Chianti Classico to win Friday’s Novices Limited Handicap Chase last year and followed up this year with Destroytheevidence. He was clearly well prepared for Friday’s race but jumped soundly and he can win more races in the sphere. He could well be campaigned similarly to his stablemate.
Runner-up Haiti Couleurs who had ended last season with two hurdle successes might have gone close to winning but for a bad mistake at the last. He can win races in the sphere. Beachcomber, who finished third, wasn’t put in the race but shaped with plenty of promise. He’ll improve with more experience.
Chepstow – Saturday
The Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle will likely produce future winners. Josh The Boss won, but Doyen Quest, the runner-up, shaped well and I would like to see him sent over fences sooner rather than later.
Three others to note: Lowry’s Bar, who would prefer softer ground; stablemate Into The Park, who likely needed the run; and Tune In The Box, who also probably needed the race.
Ffos Las – Sunday
Lump Sum was too quick for stablemate Steel Ally in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Lump Sum a Grade 2 winning novice last year could have a good season in open company. Steel Ally also looks set for a good season, probably over fences.
Of all the horses I saw, Beachcomber was the standout eyecatcher. He was weak in the betting, so the market didn’t expect him to challenge. He jumped well on chase debut, hardly touched a twig, and looks like he has a good future over fences.
Tuesday Racing
I expected Reel Her In to be odds-on at Musselburgh on Monday, so I was pleasantly surprised when she was available at 6/4. I mentioned she was worth a play at evens or above. Hopefully, some of you took advantage of that price.
I’m skipping Tuesday’s racing.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John