Hi all,
In today’s piece, I’m focusing on Champions Day at Ascot.
Well, I got the call yesterday to inform me that I have a date for my upcoming surgery for Tuesday October 29th. I have been waiting for the date but when I heard I still got a nervous feeling in my stomach. I will be in hospital overnight, but fingers crossed I’ll be raring to go on either Thursday or Friday.
Anyway, less of me, let’s get back to the racing action.
Last week, Tom Segal (Pricewise) in the Racing Post mentioned how punters often overcomplicate things. I agree. The more we analyse, the more likely we are to go down a blind alley. I’ve done it myself. Last weekend, I missed Sun God on Friday, thinking the ground wouldn’t be fast enough. I also skipped Lady Bobo. Luckily, I caught Strike Red on Saturday, but I overcomplicated things and missed Bolster.
This is why system betting appeals to some punters—it removes the second-guessing. But it also means you can’t analyse each race individually. Personally, it’s not my style. Yet, it does save you the frustration of looking back and seeing what you missed.
Champions Day
Though the flat season officially runs until November 9th at Doncaster, it effectively wraps up with Champions Day on Saturday. Six top-class races, four of them Group 1 contests, await.
If the forecast rain comes, Ascot will switch the round track races to the inner hurdles track. Either way, it promises a lot for racing fans.
In the Qipco Champion Stakes (3:55), we could see a showdown between Economics and Calandagan. Meanwhile, Charyn aims to finish his season on a high in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3:15). His rivals may include Tamfana and Prague, who was supplemented for £70,000.
In the Long Distance Cup (1:20), Kyprios bids for his ninth Group 1 victory. His main challenges could come from Trawlerman, last seen finishing second to Kyprios in the Ascot Gold Cup, and Sweet William, winner of the Doncaster Cup.
In the British Champions Sprint (1:55), Kinross bids to retain his title. He could face Sprint Cup winner Montassib and last year’s winner Art Power. Kalpana heads 19 runners in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (2:35).
The card closes with the Balmoral Handicap (4:35), which should be ultra-competitive.
Balmoral Handicap Trends
There have been 10 running’s of the Balmoral Handicap. Key trends:
- Horses drawn 12 or higher have a poor record—1 win from 107 runners.
- Winners tend to run 11 to 25 days before the race (0 winners from 94 runners outside that window).
- Horses with two or more wins on the going are 0 winners from 36 runners.
Additionally, seven of the last ten winners ran at either Ascot or Newmarket on their latest start.
From these trends, you want a horse drawn low to middle, with no more than one win on the ground, who last ran within the 11-25 days.
Contenders:
Forty-two remained in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage and on Thursday the field will be down to a maximum of 20. Currently, Qirat heads the betting at 7/1 after his second-place finish to Volterra here (7f) 14 days ago. He can improve for the step up to a mile and likes easy ground.
Thunder Run (8/1), winner of the Clipper Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival, looks promising, but his lack of a recent run is a trends concern. Daysofourlives (14/1) won at Doncaster (1m 2f) last time but might need further than a mile.
Elnajmm (14/1) hasn’t delivered since his C&D win in July and testing ground could be an issue. Trainer William Haggas also has Treasure Time (14/1), who could do better in a strongly run race but is untested on softer ground.
Irish challenger State Actor (14/1) is a big player if he travels over, especially after his close second in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Carrytheone (16/1) has been knocking on the door in big field handicaps but needs a strong pace to perform, but if he gets it, he won’t be far away. Lattam, third in the Lincoln Handicap, goes well fresh and handles testing ground. He’s a lively outsider at 20/1, though trainer Julie Camacho is struggling for winners. Another with good claims is Akkadian Thunder (25/1) who had to wait for a gap between the final two furlong when a 5 ¾ length 8th of 18 to Volterra here 14 days ago. He was just 2 ½ lengths behind Qirat last time but does need six to drop out to get a run.
If you want my Champions Day race previews and final selections, you can get them here. I’ll complete my look ahead to Champions Day in Thursday’s column.
Wednesday Racing
Good luck with your Wednesday bets!
John