Hi all.
Following yesterday’s initial look at Champions Day I’m back with more thoughts on the Ascot action in today’s main piece. Plus, there’s a quick look at this evening's feature race at Southwell.
Champions Day: Going And Weather Update!
I can’t deny I’m hoping for genuinely soft ground for Champions Day. Looking at the BHA website, a very useful resource, it looks like we could get it.
Here’s what the BHA were saying on Wednesday morning:
Source: British Horseracing Authority.
If they do move the round track races on Champions Day to the hurdles track. We don’t know now what the going to be. In the past the ground has been better (quicker) on the hurdles course than it is on the overwatered flat course.
Interestingly the amount of rainfall until the start of racing on Saturday has dropped by 5mm in the past 24 hours and could drop further.
On testing ground, I think there are few short-priced favourites who can be taken on.
1:20 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m
Kyprios is odds on with most firms and given the forecast going I can’t see what will beat him. On soft ground I think he will reverse form with last year’s winner Trawlerman indeed the latter could be vulnerable to the upwardly mobile Al Nayyir. I suspect this race won’t be a beating race for me.
1:55 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
There’s no issue with soft ground for market leaders Kinross and Montassib. Last year’s winner Art Power will get soft ground for the first time this season and the race will have been the plan all season. Soft ground will also be ideal of Spycatcher who was third last year and possible French challenger Beauvatier.
2:35 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1 – 1m 4f
The improving Kalpana looks an ideal type for the race, but the ante post favourite is unproven on soft ground. There are no ground issues for the likes Tiffany, German challenger Quantanamera or Danielle.
3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) – 1m
Ante post favourite Charyn is fine on soft ground, but he’s been on the go since March and may be vulnerable. The likes of Tamfana and last year’s runner-up Facteur Cheval are also effective on soft ground. As are French 2,000 Guineas winner Metropolitan and the improving Prague who was supplemented for the race on Monday.
3:55 – Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) -1m 2f
It should be the race of the day if Economics and Calandagan take their places in the line-up.
Economics will aim to make five from five this season and follow up his win the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. If he didn’t have too hard a race last time, he’s going to go close. Calandagan won on testing ground in France in the spring, but his best form has come on quicker ground. I think Calandagan’s overall form is stronger than Economics and he’s the one they all have to beat.
Of the rest: Henry Longfellow has looked in need of a step up to 1m 2f but I’m not sure he really wants testing ground. Stablemate Los Angeles could also take his place in the line-up after his good third in the Arc. Anmaat and French challenger Iresine who stays further and relishes the mud have each way claims at bigger odds.
Champions Day Verdict
Maybe class will tell and the short- priced horses will prevail but on testing ground there’s likely to be a big-priced winner or two, it’s just a case of landing on them.
If you want my Champions Day race previews and final selections, you can get them here.
Thursday Racing
The best of Thursday’s action takes place across the Irish Sea at the Curragh. However, the most valuable race of the day is the Class 2 Download The At The Races App Handicap (7:00) at Southwell, offering £13,608 to the winner.
Southwell
7:00 – Dual course winner Billyjoh returns to the all-weather after a solid summer in valuable handicaps on turf. He was a close second here over 6f in April and needs a strong pace to chase. If he gets it, he’ll be in the mix. Cloud Cover has to be delivered last but she has a potent turn of foot, as shown when winning at Newcastle over this distance in April. She’s interesting, coming back from a short break, with Clifford Lee back on board.
Down at the bottom of the weights is Irish challenger Hightimeyouwon, who bounced back with a solid third at Dundalk 13 days ago. It’s his first run for a new trainer, and the 8-year-old is well handicapped. He can't be ruled out.
Koy Koy showed good form in the spring, but his last three starts suggest he's heading in the wrong direction. After bleeding in last month's run at Sandown, there are some clear red flags. However, he's 1-1 on tapeta and now 3lb below his last winning mark. First-time cheekpieces could make a difference and bring him into contention.
Good luck with your Thursday bets!
John