Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the weekend’s big race action and previewing Saturday's November Handicap.
Firstly, though, who at the BHA thought it was wise to schedule Redcar, Sedgefield, and Newcastle all on the same midweek Tuesday? There’s just 51 miles between the three courses. Who’s going to attend, given their proximity? It’s a scheduling choice that seems guaranteed to dilute both attendance and local interest.
Warp Speed Just Denied in Thrilling Melbourne Cup Finish
I’m writing this at 7am Tuesday, fresh from watching Warp Speed’s narrow defeat to Knight’s Choice in the Melbourne Cup—a heart-wrenching finish for anyone who followed my tip! As mentioned in Monday’s preview, quick ground gave Warp Speed the setup to perform, and he delivered a fantastic race. Thankfully I was on each way at 25/1, but I was agonizingly close to another big race winner
Zardozi another selectionalso ran admirably, finishing 4th. She looked poised to win when she surged to the front. She had travelled powerfully but maybe hit the front too early and her stamina just faded in the final 100 yards.
For the British and Irish challengers, the night was a tough one, though Absurde did improve on last year’s effort to finish 5th, as I’d anticipated. It’s a race Hollie Doyle on Sea King will want to forget. Stall 1 always looked tricky, and she faced a tough choice: go forward or drop in. She leaned a bit too much toward the latter, and he was shuffled back to last, leaving him no chance from that position.
Congratulations are in order for Irish-born jockey Robbie Dolan, now a Melbourne Cup-winning jockey. For those outside the racing world, Robbie might be more famous for his appearance on The Voice Australia in 2022 than for his riding achievements, despite being a Grade 1-winning jockey. He rode three winners in Ireland while apprenticed to Adrian Keatley, but limited opportunities prompted his move to Australia eight years ago. His perseverance has certainly paid off, making him a notable talent both on the track and on stage.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
The weekend’s big race action kicks off on Friday at Exeter with the “West Country Weekend,” culminating Saturday at Wincanton. Exeter’s highlight is the Bet MGM Haldon Gold Cup (2:25), with four races live on ITV. Wincanton takes centre stage Saturday, featuring the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3:30) alongside two Grade 2 events—the Rising Stars Novices' Chase (2:23) and the Elite Hurdle (2:55).
Aintree also brings top jumps action, with runners taking on the Grand National fences in the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:40). Meanwhile, Doncaster hosts the final major flat race event of the British season, the Virgin Bet November Handicap (3:45). Once a significant ante-post race, the November Handicap has lost most of its appeal since Champions Day’s inception. However, given the dry week, it’s likely to have the weekend’s largest field and Saturday’s most competitive race.
ITV Racing offers an extensive lineup with 11 live races on Saturday, including five from Wincanton, three from Aintree, and three from Doncaster.
Virgin Bet November Handicap – Doncaster
I’ll be focusing on the November Handicap this week. Run over 1m 4f, the race is open to three-year-olds and older horses, typically drawing a large field. The soft ground often levels the playing field, rewarding punters who can identify horses that thrive in these conditions. This race typically favours consistent stayers and those proven on soft or even heavy ground, though this year’s going probably won’t reach the latter.
November Handicap Trends
For those who enjoy race trends, the November Handicap is a good race. Looking at the past 15 years (including last year’s running on the all-weather at Newcastle), a few standout trends emerge:
- Stalls 1 to 8: No winners from 114 runners, with only 14 places – Exp/Wins 5.93.
- Starting Price (SP) of 22/1 or bigger: No winners from 142 runners, with 16 places – Exp/Wins 3.66
- SP Last Race (not between 4/1 & 14/1): No winners from 126 runners, with 16 places – Exp/Wins 6.25.
- Best in Last Three Runs (not 1st or 2nd): No winners from 92 runners, with 16 places – Exp/Wins 3.99.
That’s 100% of winners coming from just 25% of total runners, making the November Handicap a strong trends race.
Additionally, horses whose last race was between 3 days & 20 days have provided 2 winners from 113 runners, 16 placed – Exp/Wins 6.02.
Why Inside Stalls Struggle in Doncaster’s November Handicap
I have to say I had forgotten about the draw trend. Not one winner in the last 15 years has been drawn in stalls 1 to 8. There are several reasons why this trend has maintained.
November at Doncaster often brings soft or heavy ground, especially on the inside rails, which can be churned up after previous races. The outer track often holds up better in wet conditions, favouring horses drawn wide.
Inside-drawn horses frequently face more traffic in the early part of the race, while runners in higher stalls have greater flexibility to position themselves, particularly if aiming for an outside trip to find better ground.
Trends, of course, are made to be broken. If you fancy a horse in stalls 1 to 8, it might still be worth backing with the right odds as compensation.
Contenders:
I haven’t analysed the 32 November Handicap entries in detail yet, but here are a few early standouts from Monday’s final confirmation stage:
David Menuisier has ante-post favourite Master Builder, with William Buick already booked, along with Waxing Gibbous.
Ralph Beckett could send out Lord Melbourne and Valvano.
Alan King, who won the race in 2020, has three entries: Insanity (Rossa Ryan booked), Paradias (James Doyle booked), and Loughville.
Other potential players include Azahara Palace, La Yakel, Stressfree, and Simply Sondheim. My final selections will likely come from the above, though I’ll look at trends to confirm.
If you want my November Handicap selections and for the rest of the month you can get them here.
Wednesday Racing
It’s a quiet Wednesday in terms of excitement. I was hoping Kempton’s Try Unibet's Improved Bet Builder Handicap (5:30) would field a large lineup, but only six were declared for the 2m London Stayers' Series Qualifier.
Cool Party got to dictate the pace when winning over this course and distance 14 days ago. A 3lb rise adds some pressure, but if he can control the pace again, he could hold off his rivals.
Scottish Anthem was 5 ¾ lengths behind Cool Party in that race, though it was his first start in five months, and he may be sharper this time.
Simiyann looked ahead of his mark when winning comfortably at Wolverhampton 18 days ago. He’s now up 9lb, and while he’s shown a preference for tapeta over polytrack, his current form makes him hard to rule out.
A bigger threat to Cool Party could be Tritonic, who ran a solid third in a big field at York's Ebor Festival over 2m. Although he hasn’t won since October 2022, a repeat of his York form would see the top weight go close.
Should be interesting to see if Cool Party can back up his recent win, or if Tritonic will break his winless streak.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John