Trainer Meeting Patterns

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at a very niche subject – trainer meeting patterns.

With no significant rain forecast, we’re likely to see small fields at Wincanton and Aintree this Saturday, despite efforts to keep the ground good for jump racing.

Wincanton Trainer Meeting Patterns:

Instead of the usual deep dive into big races like the Badger Beer Handicap Chase or Aintree's Grand Sefton Handicap Chase, let’s focus on trainer patterns.

Trainers tend to target certain races and meetings, and Wincanton’s Badger Beer meeting is one of those occasions. Paul Nicholls has dominated here, winning four races at each of the last two meetings. That's eight out of 14 races falling his way. Anthony Honeyball had two winners in 2023 including the Badger Beer Handicap Chase. Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Warren Greatrex, and Fergal O’Brien have had one winner each in the last two years.

Nicholls’ stable hasn't been in top form this autumn, with many of his horses needing their first runs. But there are signs his team is warming up, which could mean he’s primed to continue his winning streak at Wincanton.

This Saturday, laying Nicholls' Wincanton runners could be a risky move!

Aintree Trainer Meeting Patterns:

No single trainer has quite the same control at Aintree as Nicholls does at Wincanton, though some trainers have had their moments. Last year Lucinda Russell had two winners and Nigel Twiston-Davies, Dan Skelton, Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, Venetia Williams and Stuart Edmunds had one each.

In 2022 Ollie Murphy and David Pipe saddled two winners each and Sam Thomas, Jeremy Scott and Richard Bandey saddled one apiece.

Let’s look at one of the races on the Aintree card the Boylesports Lengthen The Odds ‘Junior' National Hunt Flat Race (3:50).

Source: Racing Post

Lucinda Russell took this last year and had four entries on Monday, while Nigel Twiston-Davies, who won in 2020, entered two runners. Both trainers won with debutants, so it’s worth noting their entries if you’re planning a bet.

I’m also intrigued by Fran The Man, who impressed on debut at Huntingdon last month and could go well again, with Jonjo O'Neill Jr already booked to ride.

Sometimes, keeping an eye on trainers with strong meeting pattern’s is a great way to find a winner or two! It’s certainly ideal for punters short on time.

Thursday Racing

It’s Clonmel Oil Chase Day at Clonmel, with two standout races: the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase (2:40) and the Listed Irish EBF Mares Chase (2:05). The Grade 2 chase whose recent winners include Allaho, Blue Lord, and Fakir d’Oudairies has attracted six runners.

Willie Mullins has dominated this race recently, winning seven of the last ten running’s. He’s relying on Saint Sam to continue his winning streak this year. However, Fakir d’Oudairies who won the race in 2021 was installed the early bird favourite, just ahead of inform stablemate Solness.

For the Mares' Chase, Willie Mullins (5) and Gordon Elliott (4) have shared the last nine wins between them. Elliott sends out Shecouldbeanything, while Mullins saddles two—Allegorie De Vassy, last year’s winner, and Pink In The Park.

Meanwhile, jump racing returns to Newbury with an interesting seven race card. Sadly, the forecast good ground means just 44 runners have been declared for Newbury’s seven races.

I’m likely to have a bet maybe two on the Newbury card and if you would like them and for the rest of the month you can get them here.

In Friday’s column I will look at Haldon Gold Cup Day at Exeter.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John