Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I begin my look ahead to the weekend’s action. Plus, you’ll find my preview of today’s most valuable handicap at Kempton.
I woke up to a winter wonderland scene on Tuesday morning. It’s a long time since we’ve seen snow as early as this. Let’s hope it’s not the sign of a freezing winter. The weather is great for the kids but not so good if you’re planning on going racing for meagre fare. On the plus side, the jumps racecourses have needed precipitation, and once the snow melts, it should seep into the ground.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Haydock’s Grade 1 Betfair Chase (3.05) is Saturday’s feature race, with Grey Dawning hopefully making his seasonal debut in this contest. Other possible runners include Ahoy Senor, last year’s winner Royale Pagaille, and recent Charlie Hall winner and runner-up The Real Whacker and Bravemansgame.
There could also be a couple of Irish challengers in the shape of Hewick and Capodanno. The latter was supplemented by Willie Mullins at Monday’s final confirmation stage. There’s also the intriguing possibility of a French-based runner in Gold Tweet.
In addition to the Betfair Chase, the Haydock undercard also includes the Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2:30), which has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Down at Ascot, Boothill will bid for a hat trick of wins in the valuable Hurst Park Handicap Chase (3.20). The Ascot card also includes a couple of Grade 2 contests and the Berkshire National (2:05), which at 3m 5f is the only chase race at Ascot beyond three miles.
There’s more Grade 1 action across the Irish Sea on Saturday. The Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (2.10) has been won for the last two years by State Man.
ITV Racing are covering nine races live on Saturday: five from Haydock, three from Ascot, plus the Morgiana Hurdle from Punchestown. Sadly, the addition of the latter race means we’re not likely to see Ascot’s Berkshire National live, which isn’t good from a betting perspective, albeit it adds quality to the afternoon’s action.
The big race action doesn’t end on Saturday. Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow could be set to clash in Sunday’s Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Chase (1.50) at Punchestown.
Haydock
It’s set to be dry at Haydock until Saturday. However, looking at the weather forecast, things could get interesting on Betfair Chase Day with between 15mm and 20mm of precipitation possible. That’s not good news for connections who were hoping for good ground, but it might not be enough rain for those who want softer underfoot conditions. If you’re thinking of an ante-post bet in this contest, it’s worth bearing in mind a tricky-to-predict weather forecast.
Betfair Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1½f
Let’s begin with something a bit different and look at trial races for the Betfair Chase. You’d be surprised how many big races are won by horses who came via big trends in this contest last time out.
Going through horseracebase here are the key trial races:
I’m going to take a quick dive into the 10-year trends for the Betfair Chase. I say quick because the last 10 renewals of the race have seen just 56 go to post, so the sample size is small. Bearing that in mind, here are two trends takeaways:
- All the last ten winners of the Betfair Chase were in the first three in the betting and had an Official Rating (OR) of 160+.
Using the above trends:
- 7-year-old qualifiers are: 4 winners from 6 runners (+14.35), 5 placed.
- Those that had never won over the distance are: 7 winners from 16 runners (+15.33), 12 places.
There were just three seven-year-olds entered at Monday’s final confirmation stage – Grey Dawning, Limerick Lace, and Gold Tweet – and all three fail the 160+ OR trend.
In Grey Dawning’s case, it’s by just 3lb, and if you look at the seven-year-olds in the first three in the betting, you have: 4 winners from 7 runners (+13.35), 5 placed.
If you fancy ante-post favourite Grey Dawning, I wouldn’t be too concerned about the OR trend, as I don’t think this year’s race is the strongest.
However, if you stick with the two key trends, and looking at the ante-post betting at the time of writing, you have two qualifiers: Ahoy Senor and Royale Pagaille. The first name isn’t the most reliable, and his jumping often lets him down, albeit Haydock should suit. Meanwhile, last year’s winner Royale Pagaille is, on RPRs, an 8lb better horse at Haydock than at any other course. However, he needs genuinely soft ground to be at his very best.
Other Contenders
Capodanno could capitalize on a weak renewal, especially given Willie Mullins’ decision to supplement him on Monday. It’s worth respecting that move. Will Paul Nicholls opt for headgear on last year’s runner-up, Bravemansgame? He doesn’t seem capable of winning a race like this now, but headgear might spark him back to something like his previous best.
If the ground stays good, The Real Whacker comes into the mix. He beat Bravemansgame in the Wetherby Charlie Hall Chase earlier this month and likes a sound surface. Hewick also caught the eye when finishing a close second to Envoi Allen in the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Down Royal three weeks ago. Like The Real Whacker, he needs the ground to remain good to show his best.
French challenger Gold Tweet has attracted some support at big odds, but his French chase form doesn’t appear strong enough for this level.
Betfair Chase Verdict
If the rain arrives, I can draw a line through half of the field. That’s why it’s risky to bet ante post in the race without knowing the underfoot conditions. Grey Dawning looks like a horse on the up and would be my pick if the rain arrives. If he’s a true Gold Cup prospect, he should win.
On soft ground, Royale Pagaille—last year’s winner—would be the biggest danger. He thrives at Haydock, especially when the going gets tough. If conditions stay good, consider The Real Whacker, Hewick, Capodanno, and perhaps Bravemansgame if Nicholls applies first-time headgear.
As ever if you want my final weekend previews and selections you can get them here.
Wednesday Racing
Kempton hosts the most competitive action this evening, with a few London Series qualifiers on the card. Here’s a quick look at the standout handicap.
Kempton
5:30 – Try Unibet's New Acca Boosts Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 1m
Roi De France: Disappointed on soft ground when down the field in the Cambridgeshire Handicap (17/2) last time. However, he remains well-treated off a mark of 95 and looks the one to beat back on a better surface.
Harvard Sound: Needed the run after a 3-month break, finishing 3rd of 13 on handicap debut over 7f at Southwell. First run beyond 7f but he stayed on strongly last time, suggesting a mile will suit. A strong contender.
Victorious Street: Won a Southwell maiden on his delayed seasonal return in August but ran poorly on soft ground at Doncaster next time. Returning to the all-weather and back off a break, he looks capable of better. The stable also won this race last year.
Among the more exposed runners:
Tempus: Winless in 18 starts and not the most consistent these days but boasts solid C&D form. He could sneak into the frame with a repeat of his best efforts.
Hafeet Alain: A consistent performer, he’s been running well on turf since a September return. Now back on his last winning turf mark, he’s a serious contender, especially with Joe Leavy taking off a handy 3lb.
Verdict
Roi De France looks the one to beat but Harvard Sound is improving and could take another step forward for the step up to a mile. Victorious Street is another to consider. This looks a race to focus on the 3-year-old’s but Tempus and in particular Hafeet Alain appeal as each way options from the older horses.
In tomorrow’s column I’ll continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big races.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets!
John