Hi all,
For the third weekend in November, the racing action couldn’t get much better. In Britain, Haydock hosted its first Grade 1 of the season, the Betfair Chase, while over in Ireland, Punchestown showcased the Morgiana Hurdle on Saturday and a stellar line-up for Sunday’s Grade 1 John Durkan Chase.
Inside today’s main piece, I’ll reflect on Haydock and Ascot, with a look at the Punchestown action in Tuesday’s column.
The long-awaited rain finally arrived in force on Saturday, transforming the Haydock ground into a mud-slick battleground. When the going turns testing in November, who better to back than Venetia Williams? She delivered in style, landing a Haydock double with Royale Pagaille and Fontaine Collonges, and capping a golden day with Martator’s victory in Ascot’s big handicap chase.
Haydock:
Soggy, gloomy conditions set the stage for Betfair Chase Day. The forecast rain came as promised, creating a day where stamina and versatility proved crucial.
Betfair Chase: Royale Pagaille’s a muddy marvel
Late withdrawals from Hewick and The Real Whacker, owing to the ground, left seven runners for this year’s Betfair Chase.
Last year’s winner, Royale Pagaille, took the lead at the first and enjoyed an uncontested front-running role, jumping economically throughout. In contrast, market rival Grey Dawning was keen early, his exuberant jumping proving potentially costly in the closing stages.
Two out, Royale Pagaille was still in front but faced a strong challenge from Grey Dawning. The younger horse briefly edged ahead at the last but made a tired mistake, allowing Royale Pagaille to rally and outstay him on the run-in.
For Royale Pagaille, this is likely the only Grade 1 he’ll win this season, but connections won’t mind. Haydock’s Betfair Chase often produces specialist winners—think Bristol De Mai and now Royale Pagaille—horses who excel here but struggle to replicate their form elsewhere. If you havn't seen the race you can watch it here.
What Now for Grey Dawning?
Grey Dawning entered as the leading British contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but this performance raises questions about his stamina. His early exuberance didn’t help, and while he’ll come on for the run, he was ultimately outstayed by a horse exposed at this level.
This gruelling race likely rules him out of the King George at Kempton. Connections may still aim for the Gold Cup, as they did with stablemate Protektorat, but he strikes me more as a 2m 4f-3m horse. If he’s to land a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, the Ryanair Chase could be his best chance.
Trelawne Triumphs Over Iroko
Earlier on the Haydock card, Trelawne gamely held off Iroko to win the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase. A faller when well-fancied for the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, Trelawne had to dig deep to prevail. Despite a slight mistake at the last, there was plenty to like about his attitude as he battled to victory. The 8-year-old looks set for a productive season, with a decent pot likely within reach. He could well end up in the Ultima Handicap again this season and could be a Grand National contender.
Iroko, who is being aimed at the Grand National, wasn’t as well-positioned as the winner. Held up in a steadily run race on heavy ground, he faced a tough task on a track like Haydock, which favours prominent runners. If you backed the 11/8 favourite, you could feel aggrieved by the ride he received.
Shoot First Claims Stayers Handicap Hurdle
The valuable Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle is heading back to Ireland for the second year in a row, thanks to Charles Byrnes' Shoot First. Making his way through the field, he took the lead three out and thwarted a gamble on 11/4 favourite One Big Bang. In an attritional contest, only five of the 15 runners completed.
Shoot First had been an ante-post favourite for the 2023 Pertemps Final at Cheltenham but missed the race due to injury. After two years off, he returned to action at Galway last month, prompting an interesting inquiry into his running and riding. Despite being just 7/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast, he was sent off at 22/1, perhaps due to concerns about the softening ground.
In Thursday’s preview, I highlighted trends that had found all the last 16 winners of the race.
On Saturday morning, Doyen Quest (a non-runner), Push The Button, and Shoot First were the only three trends qualifiers. While Shoot First failed the SP trend, the rest of the trends held firm, and I’ll certainly use them again for next year’s race.
It was also a good day for other trends previews, with Royale Pagaille standing as the sole qualifier for the Betfair Chase trends shared on Wednesday, further bolstering the method's reliability.
Ascot: Good Winners, Sparse Crowd
Compared to Haydock, Ascot looked deserted, and the quality of the racing wasn’t quite at the same level as the Lancashire track. That said, there were two Grade 2 contests and a valuable 2m 1f handicap chase with £52,030 on offer to the winner. We also saw two impressive handicap winners.
Martator stormed to an emphatic 11-length victory in the Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase, completing a five-timer in the process. A significant hike in the weights awaits, but this progressive chaser may not have reached his class ceiling yet.
Earlier, Beauport produced a brilliant jumping display to land the Berkshire National Handicap Chase (3m 5½f). Benefiting from the mistakes of rivals, last season’s Midlands Grand National winner looks destined for a crack at Aintree’s big race in April.
Grade 2 Highlights: Pic D’Orhy Shines
Pic D’Orhy dominated from the front to claim the Grade 2 Copybet 1965 Chase for the second consecutive year. It was a polished display from the 9-year-old, who thrives at Ascot. Trainer Paul Nicholls hinted that Pic D’Orhy might be supplemented for the King George. While that would be an ambitious move, the idea has merit. However, he would likely need a weaker-than-usual field to triumph at Kempton.
Lucky Place impressed in the Grade 2 Howden Ascot Hurdle. The 5-year-old, fourth in the Coral Cup at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, made a strong return to action here. Next up is the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day—a race Nicky Henderson has won four times since 2008. A victory there could pave the way for a tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle, as Lucky Place looks capable of staying three miles.
Golden Ace, the 2/1 favourite, put in a respectable effort to finish a two-length fourth on her seasonal return. Traveling powerfully, she appeared poised for a winning run two out but seemed to blow up approaching the last. Considering her long absence and the stable's current form, it was an encouraging performance from the mare.
Tomorrow I'll look back on a steller weekend of action at Punchestown.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John