Hi all,
Inside today’s piece, I’m sharing thoughts on Race IQ data and the David Power Jockey’s Cup. Plus. I’ve highlighted two future winners for the tracker.
Race IQ Data: Thoughts?
What do you think about Race IQ data? I touched on it earlier this year when Racing TV and ITV Racing introduced it. Back then, I wasn’t impressed—and I’m still not.
For punters, there’s no edge. The data is public, so everyone sees it, and markets quickly adjust.
That said, I do refer to it occasionally. It often confirms what I’ve noticed or, less often, challenges my view on a horse’s jumping. But how relevant are jumping stats for future races? For instance, some horses simply dislike certain tracks. Take Raffle Ticket, who ran at Cheltenham on Friday. He’s 4-4 on flat tracks but just 1-10 on undulating ones. His performance suggests Cheltenham doesn’t suit him.
David Power Jockeys’ Cup: Necessary or Meaningless Sideshow?
The racing media loves the David Power Jockeys’ Cup—Ed Chamberlain mentions it endlessly on ITV Racing. But for most fans, it’s a boring sideshow.
The £1.5 million prize fund explains why jockeys are excited. Yet, according to Great British Racing, the competition is also meant to “make it easier for fans to jump in and follow all of the action, making the sport more accessible and inspiring for all, from long-time followers to newcomers alike.”
Frankly, statements like that show why racing is on the decline. Punters, owners, and horses are the sport’s backbone—not gimmicks that benefit the richest 10% of jockeys and provide free advertising for Flutter (Paddy Power).
Future Winners
Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough made an impressive winning chase debut in the Beginners' Chase that opened Saturday’s Fairyhouse card. His jumping improved as the race progressed, and I liked the way he quickened away after the last to pull away from two older stablemates.
I missed backing him at 10/1, even though I really fancy him for the Arkle, but even a best priced 5/1 with bet365 look good to me.
Here are two names for the tracker from Cheltenham’s December Meeting:
Paint The Dream
Paint The Dream ran better than his eighth-place finish in Friday’s Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Chase Series Handicap suggests. Returning from a 650-day break, he was allowed to lob around behind the pace and wasn’t asked a serious question at any time.
It looks like the 10-year-old is being aimed at a specific future target—possibly the series final. Now back with his former trainer, he was an improver when last seen. The handicapper has dropped him 8lb for having last season off, leaving him 4lb below his last winning mark. After Friday’s effort, he could dip a few more pounds, making him even more appealing.
Transmission
Transmission followed up his November Meeting win with another excellent run. He finished 2 ¾ lengths runner-up to Haiti Couleurs in Saturday’s Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (3m 1f). Up in class, he couldn’t quite get to grips with the well-ridden and progressive winner but showed further improvement.
Targets at the Cheltenham Festival could include the Ultima Handicap or the National Hunt Chase which is now a novices handicap chase. Saturday’s performance suggests the latter race should come under serious consideration as he can improve for staying trips. However, it’s worth remembering the yard did win the Ultima in 2015.
Tuesday Racing: Trainers Hold the Key Wincanton Handicap Chase
There are 23 races across Britain on Tuesday, though only one offers more than £6,000 to the winner. Still, there's some interest, especially at Wincanton, where the TrustATrader Handicap Chase (2:45) stands out.
This Class 4 contest over 2m 4f has attracted nine runners. My approach? Focus on trainers with a strong record at the course.
Yggdrasil returns from a lengthy 556-day layoff and sports a first-time tongue-tie. David Pipe has a solid record with chasers at Wincanton over the past two years: 26% strike rate (5 winners from 19 runners) and +13.75 profit to a £1 stake. When paired with Jack Tudor, the duo boasts an impressive 44% win rate (4 from 9, +20). Yggdrasil thrives on good to soft going (form figures: 21112) and looks primed for a bold bid, provided the ground doesn’t deteriorate.
Another Million shaped nicely when fourth at Warwick two starts ago on debut for Lydia Richards. However, a disappointing effort and poor jumping led to a fall at Chepstow last time. That said, the yard has done well in handicap chases at Wincanton, winning 2 of their 3 runners (+5.75) in the last five years. Again, decent ground will be key for this one’s chances.
Ultimately, the weather could play a decisive role in the outcome of this race. It’s a clash that promises intrigue for those who dig into the details.
In tomorrow’s column I’ll be previewing Saturday’s Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John