Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m reviewing Saturday’s big betting race: the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot. Plus, I take a deep dive into the best of Wednesday’s racing.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
The festive period is here, and so is one of the busiest periods in the jumps calendar. The action starts on Friday with Ascot’s Howden Christmas Racing Weekend.
Friday’s Highlight: The Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices' Chase (3:05), won last year by recent Peterborough Chase scorer Djelo.
Saturday’s Feature: The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2:25). Reigning champion Crambo is back, bidding for back to back wins. His rivals could include recent Newbury winner Strong Leader and the rapidly improving The Wallpark, now owned by JP McManus.
The Ascot undercard is strong, too. Victorino could chase consecutive wins in the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3:00). Meanwhile, Be Aware and Dysart Enos, second and third in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, may face off again in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3:35).
ITV Racing will cover four races from Ascot on Saturday, alongside two from Haydock. These include the Listed Mares Novices’ Hurdle (2:40) and the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:05).
Whether it’s the Long Walk Hurdle or the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle, racing fans have plenty to look forward to.
Ascot: Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle – 1m 7½f
Ladbrokes return as sponsors of this prestigious two-mile handicap hurdle, one of the most valuable handicap hurdles in the jumps calendar, with £125,000 in guaranteed prize money.
From 2001 to 2015, Ladbrokes sponsored the event before it became the Betfair Exchange Trophy (2018–2023). Not So Sleepy is the only dual winner, landing the race in 2019 and 2020.
The field for Saturday promises a mix of exciting prospects and proven performers, ensuring the perfect pre-Christmas betting puzzle.
Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Trends
Last week’s trends analysis highlighted Gemirande winner of Cheltenham’s December Gold Cup. Can they do so again this week?
Looking at the tends since 2008, which contain 14 winners from 225 runners, 47 places, there are some promising ones albeit only a couple of strong ones.
Odds SP: 25/1 & under – (0 winners from 44 runners, 2 places 28/1 & bigger)
Runs In Hurdle Races: Between 4 & 12 – (0 winners from 57 runners, 7 places outside that group)
Last Race: Handicap – (1 winner from 38 runners, 10 places ran in a non-handicap last time)
Last Race % Horses Beaten: 65% + – (1 winner from 67 runners, 9 places under 65%).
Not So Sleepy (2020) failed the latter two trends having ran the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle on previous start where he unseated his rider.
Using those four trends to shortlist contenders found 13 of the 14 winners.
Trends Verdict
The standout trends focus on:
Hurdle Runs: Between 4 and 12
% Horses Beaten: 65%+ in their last race.
Contenders
Be Aware (4/1) and Dysart Enos (4/1) head the market with the sponsers.
Be Aware – Strong Greatwood Hurdle form, but two miles may be on the sharp side. A steady pace wouldn’t help if held up again.
Dysart Enos – Looks speedy and is well handicapped but wouldn’t want the ground too soft.
Kabral Du Mathan (5/1) remains unbeaten over hurdles (3-3) after a recent Kempton win. He’s up 8lb in a stronger race but looks highly progressive.
Secret Squirrel (6/1) was supported on Monday and I missed the 12/1 that was avilable. Third over C&D to Our Champ last month, he’s a leading contender for a yard that won this race with Not So Sleepy.
Salver (10/1) shaped well when 4th at Newbury on reapperance. Soft/heavy ground would bring out the best in him, as all four wins have come under testing conditions.
Steel Ally (10/1) improved when stepping up to 2m 3f at Haydock last time. A strong pace would help this front-runner.
Alan King has two possible runners:
Favour And Fortune (10/1) – Improving hurdler who won the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. A concern is his 181+ day absence (0/16 trend since 2008).
Tritonic (40/1) – The 2021 winner, now 6lb lower. He’d need a drying week to win again and fails the hurdle runs trend.
For those looking for contenders at bigger odds, Alnilam (25/1) and Fiercely Proud (20/1) shouldn’t be dismissed.
Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Final Thoughts
This year’s Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle offers depth and competitive angles. The trends point to progressive types with the right hurdle experience and strong recent form. The ground and pace will be key, with several contenders needing conditions to fall in their favour.
If you want my final Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle selections and for the Christmas period you can get them here.
Wednesday Racing: Key Pointers
There’s some competitive racing to get stuck into today. Here’s a look at a few standout contests and notable runners:
Newbury
1:15 – TrustATrader Novice Handicap Chase
A strong race despite just six runners.
Kyntara – Pertemps Hurdle Final runner-up returns to fences.
Mt Fugi Park – Chase debutant who looked best on better ground in the spring.
Wrappedupinmay – Shaped like a stayer last season over hurdles and could improve over fences. Yard won this race last year.
Herakles Westwood – Runner-up at Taunton on chase debut and can win races in the sphere.
2:25 – Handicap Chase (2m)
Javert Allen – Jumped well when making a winning chase debut at Chepstow; up 5lb but remains on the up.
General Medrano – Last time out C&D winner but now 10lb higher. Benefitted from a pace collapse then, which may not materialise today.
3:00 – Handicap Chase (2m 4f)
Densworth – Progressive type who improved when winning at 2m 3½f at Wetherby last month. Up 9lb but handles softer ground and is improving.
Walking On Air – Poor on recent starts but is 9lb lower than his close 2nd here last December. Needs a revival.
Ludlow
Venetia Williams remains in cracking form (6-28, past 14 days), so her runners today demand respect:
12:50 – Christopher Wood
2:00 – Pink Breeze
2:35 – Alcedo – Chase debut. Might prefer softer ground but looks promising.
3:45 – Falco Des Pins – Venetia has won three of the last six runnings of this race.
12:50 – Handicap Chase (3m)
Tightenourbelts – Jumped well when winning at Exeter but won’t want soft ground.
Neon Moon – Has remained in form since winning on return. C&D winner who looks a solid contender.
Found On – Poor recent form but is 1lb below last winning mark. Easing ground a concern.
Balkardy – Back over fences after lesser hurdles run last time. Could bounce back if ground eases.
Kempton
6:40 – Handicap (1m)
Metallo – Shaped well on return from a 15-month absence, sharper now. Potentially well-treated on juvenile form. Rossa Ryan’s booking (4-18, +16.83 when combining with Jack Channon) is notable.
7:10 – Handicap (6f)
Fire Demon – Returns to all-weather sprinting (2-2 over C&D). Good chance if not inconvenienced by stall 9.
Ingra Tor – Solid recent form; 2nd of 12 last time. C&D figures 22, layoff no issue.
Sommelier – Well-treated off 96. Needed the run last time but could go close here. Rossa Ryan again a positive booking.
Final Thoughts:
Competitive action across all three tracks with several well-handicapped contenders. Watch the weather closely for Ludlow and Newbury as conditions could play a key role in results.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets!
John