Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing the four Ascot races live on ITV.
Ascot Profits Banked
Mark Of Gold and Windbeneathmywings delivered a profitable Friday at Ascot for me and Victor Value subscribers.
I was particularly confident about Windbeneathmywings, who impressed with a dominant win in the Listed bumper.
My Saturday ITV preview and selections went out to subscribers on Friday afternoon. If you’d like to receive those and my picks for the busy Christmas & New Year period, you can join here.
Saturday’s ITV handicap chases feature disappointing field sizes. Ascot’s Howden Silver Cup has attracted just 8 runners, while Haydock’s Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase isn’t much better with 9. With Christmas racing around the corner and a limited pool of staying handicap chasers, this isn’t a shock.
The underlying issue remains the same—too much racing. Without significant cuts to the number of fixtures, this trend will persist.
Ascot Saturday Preview
The four ITV races from Ascot promise intrigue, even if the first one lack of depth. Here’s how they shape up:
1:50 – Howden Graduation Chase (2m 5f)
A small field of four line up, with Iroko and Irish raider Fil Dor sharing a rating of 152. Fil Dor concedes 3lb, adding interest to the contest. Willie Mullins' James Du Berlais leads the ratings on 155 and receives weight from Fil Dor, but he’s a tricky customer to back with confidence. It’s an engaging race on paper, but not one I’d bet on.
2:25 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
This race was covered in Thursday’s column, where Strong Leader was highlighted as the one to beat despite some concerns about the right-handed track. Last year’s winner Crambo makes his seasonal return, boasting an unbeaten record in such scenarios (3-3). It’s a good-quality renewal with Strong Leader the form pick.
3:00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3m)
Defending champion Victtorino tops the betting and is just 1lb higher than when winning this last year. The 6-year-old has an excellent chance of doubling up if he didn’t have to hard a race in the Coral Gold Cup last time.
The Changing Man was a good second in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle but remains a maiden over fences (0-7). He’s well handicapped to win a race like this and could pose a challenge. Yard won this in 2020.
Trelawne got the better of Iroko in a Graduation Chase at Haydock last time. A strong galloper who thrives on soft ground, the step back up to 3m should suit him. However, he’s 4-4 fresh compared to 0-5 when returning within 60 days.
Hartur d'Arc impressed in the Leinster National (3m 1f) at Naas in March but struggled over an inadequate trip in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Back up in distance, he’s a contender for a yard that had last year’s runner-up.
Threeunderthrufive, a C&D winner in a similar race in February, from 3lb lower. He’ll relish the ground and trip and can’t be discounted on seasonal reappearance.
3:35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (1m 7 ½ f)
The ITV race previewed on Wednesday stands out as fiercely competitive, with 7 of the 13 runners qualifying using the key trends: Be Aware, Dysart Enos, Favour And Fortune, Secret Squirrel, Steel Ally, Fiercely Proud, and Black Hawk Eagle. Remarkably, six of these made my shortlist, underscoring just how wide open this contest is.
At the prices, I’m prepared to take on Be Aware, though opposing Dan Skelton in a two-mile handicap hurdle is always a gamble. Be Aware’s drift on Friday has made him more appealing, but Dysart Enos and Kabral Du Mathan now share favouritism. Kabral Du Mathan’s form received a significant boost at Ascot on Friday. All three have strong claims, so if you fancy one, I wouldn’t discourage you.
Summary:
1:50: Intriguing clash, but not a betting race for me.
2:25: Strong Leader is the one to beat, with last year’s winner Crambo a serious rival once more.
3:00: Victtorino has a strong chance, with Trelawne a solid alternative if bucking his days since run profile.
3:35: A competitive puzzle, with six of the seven trends qualifiers also making my shortlist.
Enjoy the ITV action!
Good luck with you Saturday bets.
John