Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Classic Chase at Warwick.
I spent yesterday morning digging the car out. The main roads are thankfully clear of snow now, but the side roads remain tricky. It’s been 12 years since I last had to use the snow shovel, which says a lot about how severe the weather has been. Sadly, it doesn't look like the freeze is abating anytime soon.
If the weather has improved, there’s some quality jumps action across Britain and Ireland to look forward to.
At Kempton, we have the Grade 2 Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (2:42), which was won last year by recent King George VI Chase winner Banbridge. The undercard also features the competitive Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (3:18).
Elsewhere in Britain, there’s Grade 2 action at Warwick and Wetherby. At Warwick, the Trustatrader Hampton Novices' Chase (2:25) is a key race, won last year by Grey Dawning before his Cheltenham Festival success. Warwick’s big betting race is the Classic Chase (Premier Handicap) (3:00). Meanwhile, at Wetherby, the highlight of their card is the Grade 2 William Hill Towton Novices' Chase (2:02).
Over in Ireland, Fairyhouse hosts the Grade 3 SBK Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (1:42), which headlines a typically competitive card.
It promises to be an exciting day of action for racing fans—weather permitting!
Warwick’s Classic Chase
The Classic Handicap Chase is one of the highlights of Warwick’s racing calendar. The race provides a good test of stamina and jumping ability, taking place over approximately 3 miles and 5 furlongs.
Key Characteristics:
Testing Stamina:
While Warwick is an essentially speed favouring course, the long distance combined with testing ground makes this stamina contest.
Jumping Precision:
The course requires sharp jumping, as the fences at Warwick are famously challenging due to their proximity in the back straight.
Grand National Clues:
Many runners use this race as a stepping stone to the Grand National at Aintree. One For Arthur (2017): Won this race before claiming victory in that year’s Grand National.
Classic Chase Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 2024
The Classic Chase Handicap Chase at Warwick faces a race against time, with the track currently waterlogged and freezing temperatures forecast. Without frost sheets in place, it’s odds against the meeting taking place as scheduled.
At Monday’s final confirmation stage, just 16 runners remained in contention. Last year’s renewal had 14 starters, and the lowest turnout was 12 in 2019. This year, we could be looking at the smallest field since the race’s inception.
In addition to the likely small field, the quality appears to be lacking. Unless the Irish challenger Duffle Coast makes the trip, Chambard, with an official rating of 142, is set to carry top weight—a reflection of the lack of strength in depth this year.
It’s a race I normally look forward too but this one I’m not so sure.
Trends:
Looking at the race trends which contain 14 winners from 197 runners, 43 places.
Odds SP: – 0 winners from 47 runners, 4 places.
Best in Three Races: Not in First Three – 0 winners from 35 runners, 5 places.
Runs at the Track: 2+ – 0 winners from 39 runners, 6 places.
Runs (Season): 4+ – 0 winners from 33 runners. 7 places.
All 14 winners met the following trends:
The only horse aged 11yr old & older to win the race since 2011 was Milansbar (2018).
Contenders
It seems we’re in for a substandard renewal of this usually competitive race. I’m holding off on any deep analysis until there’s confirmation that Warwick’s meeting can go ahead. After sinking six hours into last Saturday’s racing, I’ve learned to avoid premature efforts.
Here’s a quick look at some of the leading contenders:
Mr Vango (3/1)
The London Grand National winner leads the ante-post betting. He’s more effective going right-handed but has won this way around and thrives on testing ground. The big question is whether Warwick’s unique track will suit him. At the current price, he looks a bit short but he could drift.
Lady Balko (6/1)
This mare has been impressive, winning three of her four starts over fences, completing the hat trick last time. She’s 8lb higher in the weights and facing tougher competition, but she’s improving rapidly and may not have reached her ceiling yet.
Snipe (6/1)
Runner-up to Welsh Grand National hero Val Dancer at Carlisle, Snipe is relatively unexposed at marathon trips. If he handles a stamina test and looks a solid contender.
Apple Away (8/1)
A Listed chase winner at Perth in the spring, this mare has shown glimpses of form this season. She was a well beaten second in a Mares’ Listed Chase (3m) at Market Rasen but could be well suited to a prominent ride on testing ground. If she stays, she’s weighted to contend.
My Silver Lining (10/1)
Last year’s winner returns, now 4lb higher in the handicap. She pulled up on her first two starts this season but showed signs of a revival with a third-place finish behind Lady Balko at Hereford. She’s proven in this race, and conditions could suit her again.
Major Dundee (12/1)
The 2023 Midlands Grand National winner returned at Bangor over an inadequate trip and needed the run. He’s now just 1lb above his winning mark and has the stamina for this race, though he pulled up in last year’s renewal.
Minella Blueway (20/1)
Minella Blueway has posted career-best performances on his last three starts over fences. He finished a close second over three miles at Windsor last time and looks ready to step up to a marathon trip. He was set to run in Sunday’s abandoned Southern National.
Verdict:
While the field lacks depth, there are still intriguing storylines. Mr Vango looks the class act but might drift to a more appealing price. Lady Balko is on an upward trajectory, while My Silver Lining and Major Dundee are both proven stayers. If the race goes ahead, it could still deliver a battle worth watching despite its weaker profile.
In Thursday’s column I’ll be looking at Kempton’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John