Hi all,
In today’s main piece, I preview Saturday’s big betting race: the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, formerly the Betfair Hurdle.
But first, here are some potential future winners from the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.
Dublin Racing Festival: Future Winners
The Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) served up two cracking days, with plenty of future winners emerging. Here are a few I didn’t have time to include in yesterday’s wrap-up.
Qualimita caught the eye, finishing 3rd of 19 in Sunday’s Paddy and Maureen Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (2m 2f). This was her first run in a handicap, and it suited her. She finished strongly, prefers soft ground, and will enjoy a step up to 2m 4f. A mares’ handicap looks well within her reach.
The first four home in Sunday’s Timeless Sash Windows Handicap Hurdle are worth noting. I reckon this race will prove strong form.
McLaurey, the winner, looked well-treated off a mark of 120 on handicap debut—and he was. He won by just a length, but he wasn’t fully extended when hitting the front. This effort can be marked up, and the County Hurdle could be next for the six-year-old.
Storm Heart, runner-up, was a useful juvenile last season. This was his delayed seasonal return, and he finished his race off strongly. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t land a handicap hurdle soon.
Irish Panther, third home, remains unexposed in handicaps. Backed at big odds, he shaped well and can bag a decent prize before long.
Ol Man Dingle (4th) was chasing a four-timer and ran with credit off a 12lb higher mark. He looked to have slipped the field two out but was caught late on. Perhaps he went for home too early, and his new mark may not prove insurmountable.
Newbury: William Hill Handicap Hurdle
First run in 1963, at Aintree before moving to its present home at Newbury the following year, the race has a storied history. Initially sponsored by Schweppes until 1986, it was known as the Schweppes Gold Trophy. From 1987 to 2011, the Tote sponsored it, followed by Betfair from 2012 until this year. Now William Hill take over as sponsor.
The race, run over 2m ½f, typically features a competitive field of up to 24 runners. With £87,219 for the winner, it is Europe's richest handicap hurdle.
Notable past winners include Persian War and Make a Stand, who both went on to win the Champion Hurdle. More recently, My Tent Or Yours won the race in 2013 before finishing a close second in that year’s Supreme and narrowly losing in the Champion Hurdle the following year.
William Hill Handicap Hurdle Key Trends
Looking at the past 10 renewals (197 runners, 38 places), some clear patterns emerge:
Key Trends:
Age: All 10 winners were aged 5 to 7.
Weight: Carried no more than 11-08 (10/10).
Official Rating: Between 132 and 143 (9/10).
OR v Race Avg: 8lb higher to 6lb lower than the race average (9/10).
Form: Finished in the top three last time out (8/10).
Hurdles Experience: Between 1 and 6 runs over hurdles (8/10).
Other Notable Stats:
Hurdlers with fewer than six starts: 8 winners from 109 runners (-14.5), 26 places.
Ran in a non-handicap last time: 7 winners from 67 runners (+24.5), 17 places.
Ran in a handicap last time: 3 winners from 129 runners (-85), 21 places (A/E=0.38). Iberico Lord (2024) was one of those three winners.
Trends Verdict
To use the trends to shortlist contenders, focus on unexposed, younger hurdlers. Look for those with no more than six starts over hurdles, with a recent top three finish.
Leading Contenders
Twenty-four were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage which hopefully means we’ll see a decent sized field for Saturday’s race.
Here are some leading contenders with the sponsors' prices in brackets at the time of writing.
Secret Squirrel (11/2):
Fits key trends as a 6-year-old with strong recent form. Won well at Windsor and carries a 5lb penalty but remains well-weighted. Newbury is a different test to Windsor, yet another big run is expected. Strong claims and a worthy ante-post favourite.
Joyeuse (6/1):
A 5-year-old mare from Nicky Henderson’s yard, ticking the age box. Made an impressive hurdle debut at Taunton last season, showing more promise on two starts this term. Open to further progress and challenging for favouritism.
Navajo Indy (8/1):
Aged 6, fits the age trend. Won the Gerry Feilden here in November taking C&D form figures to 121. A 3 length fourth to Secret Squirrel at Windsor last time, now 5lb better off. Windsor didn’t suit him as much as well Secret Squirrel and he holds solid claims.
Favour And Fortune (10/1):
Another 6-year-old, matching the age trends. Scottish Champion Hurdle winner last season. Sixth on seasonal return at Ascot, shaping like he needed the run. Likely to improve, especially on drying ground.
Tellherthename (12/1):
A 6-year-old, with just six hurdle starts, fits the unexposed profile. Fourth to Sir Gino in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth on stable/seasonal debut. Better ground suits, and a mark of 137 looks workable. Missed last year’s race due to heavy ground.
Hansard (16/1):
One from one over C&D. Disappointed last time, after an encouraging seasonal return, but could bounce back. This race has likely been the target for a yard who’s won this race three times since 2007. Only 8/1 with Paddy Power.
Washington (16/1):
Has returned from an 11-month absence winning at Chepstow and Fairyhouse. The latter success was a much improved effort but he does fail the age trend given he’s a 9-year-old.
William Hill Handicap Hurdle Verdict:
Secret Squirrel has got solid claims at 5/1 & bigger. Navajo Indy will appreciate the return to Newbury and should get closer to Secret Squirrel. Joyeuse ticks plenty of boxes for last year’s winning yard as does Tellherthename.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John