Hi all,
Today, I’m taking a quick look at Saturday’s action at Ascot, including the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase. Plus, a brief glance at Thursday’s card at Sandown.
However, first a few thoughts on the publication of the Grand National weights.
Grand National Weights Revealed: I Am Maximus Tops the Scales Amidst Irish Dominance
The Grand National weights were released on Tuesday, with last year’s winner I Am Maximus heading the list on 11st 12lb—an 8lb rise from his victory. Despite this, he remains a strong contender.
After Venetia Williams’ top weights, Royale Pagaille (11st 9lb) and L’Homme Presse (11st 8lb), the next British-trained horse is Beauport at No.19. This highlights once more Ireland’s dominance, leading some to joke that the Grand National is the new the Irish Grand National.
Opinions on the race are divided. Some see it as a “glorified hurdle race,” while others still consider it the season’s highlight. Personally, backing Neptune Collonges at 66/1 in 2012 remains a fond memory. The late John Hales, owner of Neptune Collonges, said the horse won the last true Grand National and he was right.
However, the Irish stranglehold—combined with the influence of major stables and wealthy owners—seems to have diluted the race’s unique appeal.
Trends & Betting Moves
Since the race modifications, the National has favoured younger horses, with the last ten winners aged 7 to 9. That’s where my focus will be.
The weights release has shaken up the ante-post markets. Inothewayurthinkin (mark of 160) is the 10/1 favourite, though he’s not certain to run. I Am Maximus (12/1) and Iroko (14/1) are next, all three owned by JP McManus. Last year’s Irish Grand National winner, Intense Raffles, and Thyestes winner Nick Rockett are both 16/1.
One of my early race fancies, Beauport (33/1), remains well-priced and looks tailor-made for the race.
Iroko’s Kempton Test
Iroko runs next Saturday in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton, racing off 152. While the modern National fences are less daunting, I still question his jumping speed. That said, if he’s as well-handicapped as I believe, he’ll win the Kempton race comfortably and emerge as the clear Grand National favourite.
It’s amazing how many entries suddenly hit form after the weights are published. I expect Iroko to be one of the first of them to do so.
Ascot: Betfair Ascot Chase
Just seven possible runners line up for this 2m 5f Grade 1, with £99,663 on offer to the winner.
Pic D'Orhy last year’s winner boasts strong C&D form (2111) and should get his own way in front again. He’s a year older, but his jumping rhythm can make him hard to peg back around Ascot. Trainer form remains a concern, though.
L'Homme Presse was beaten fair and square in last year’s race and probably needs 3m and a left handed track.
Corbetts Cross and L'Homme Presse are 2lb higher than Pic D'Orhy on official ratings (OR), but the latter is a course specialist. Corbetts Cross at 15/8 with bet365 looks short—he surely needs 3m 2f to win a Grade 1 chase.
Le Patron looked a real improver when winning under a big weight at Newbury two starts back. He’s 11lb behind L'Homme Presse on official ratings but is only seven and this trip suits. At 10/1 (William Hill), he looks much better value than Corbetts Cross.
Verdict:
Pic D'Orhy is tough to beat at Ascot if he gets into a rhythm. Le Patron appeals more than L'Homme Presse and Corbetts Cross at the prices.
Ascot: Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
A competitive looking three-mile handicap. Here are some contenders.
Victtorino is 3 from 4 over C&D and won well here last time. A 3lb rise isn’t harsh, and his Ascot record makes him a key player.
Hasthing seeks a hat-trick after two Windsor wins. Stepping up to 2m 6f last time suited, and three miles should bring more improvement. An 8lb rise seems fair and he’s got a good chance.
Wiseguy won first time up at Newbury. He did the same last season but failed to build on it. Tops RPRs for the race and remains competitively weighted if backing up his seasonal return.
Threeunderthrufive is 1lb higher than when winning this last year. He ran a solid third to Victtorino over C&D in December and is 5lb better off. Could be vulnerable to improvers, and the stable’s form is a concern.
Thursday’s Racing – Sandown
Thursday’s feature is the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle (2:30). Just 40 runners have been declared across the seven Sandown races, with only the opening Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle featuring more than seven runners.
Only five line-up for the Jane Seymour, but it’s a fascinating contest. All have claims and are open to further improvement. Fergal O’Brien and Jamie Snowden have both won it twice in the last decade. O’Brien saddles recent Ayr scorer That'll Do Moss, while Snowden runs Hollygrove Cha Cha. Early favourite Holloway Queen, unbeaten in two starts over hurdles, represents Nicky Henderson. Willie Mullins adds intrigue with Mummy Derry, a hurdle debutant thrown straight into deep waters. Mullins last won this in 2015.
Hollygrove Cha Cha chased home the useful Jubilee Alpha at Taunton last time and will relish the return to 2m 3f. She’s my pick, but Mummy Derry remains a wildcard.
Later on the card, I give Happy And Fine a solid chance in the handicap chase (4:12). He shaped as if the run was needed at Haydock last time and is only 3lb above his last winning mark. He’ll be sharper here, and the yard is in good form, though drying ground probably isn’t ideal. Classic Anthem returned to form when finishing second at Warwick 24 days ago. He’s only had three chase starts but won over hurdles here last season and remains unexposed over fences. I was leaning towards Happy And Fine, on soft ground, but wouldn’t put anyone off Classic Anthem.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John