Hi all,
Here’s my Thursday preview of the Graded races on Day 3. It’s my favourite of the four days from a punting perspective and my biggest betting day.
Cheltenham Festival Day 2: Thrills, False Starts & Emotion
Two years ago, the late Michael O’Sullivan rode a Festival double on Marine Nationale and Jazzy Matty. It’s fitting, then, that those two horses won again on Wednesday.
Marine Nationale took advantage of a bad mistake by Jonbon to land the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Later, Jazzy Matty was given a confident ride by Danny Gilligan to beat 19 rivals in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase. Both races were marred by false starts, but it didn’t take away from the drama.
I was cheering on Jazzy Matty, so his win was all the sweeter—for me and Victor Value subscribers.
It felt written in the stars, as if someone was looking down on Cheltenham.
The day delivered everything—thrills, spills, and high drama. It all started in the opener, where The New Lion cut down The Yellow Clay on the run-in to win the Turners Novices' Hurdle.
It was a high-class race—the best of the Festival so far—with the front three in the betting fighting out the finish. The winner showed too much pace for The Yellow Clay and Final Demand after the last. He’s a serious horse and will surely be trained for next year’s Champion Hurdle.
Mullins Lands Cheltenham Treble
Willie Mullins won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase—but not with favourite Ballyburn, who was let down by his jumping. Instead, it was Lecky Watson (20/1) who delivered the victory. I laid Ballyburn so was happy.
Mullins then secured a 14th Champion Bumper with Bambino Fever, given a great ride by Jodie Townend, who celebrated her first Cheltenham Festival success. It was also another winner for my subscribers! I really fancied Bambino Fever, and I was confident that she was the best of the Mullins battalion and knew Jodie was more than capable of getting the job done.
Mullins also won the Coral Cup with Jimmy Du Seuil who put in an impressive display to win on his seasonal return.
It should have been The New Lion’s Day, but there’s only one name in the thoughts of punters.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 3 Preview
After two days on the Old Course, the Day 3 action switches to the New Course. The Old Course favours front-runners, while the New Course suits patiently ridden horses. Hard-luck stories are common on the Old Course, but less so on this track.
Thursday features two Grade 1 races—the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (4:00) and the Ryanair Chase (3:20). Traditionally, this is the day bookies fight back, and with an extra handicap—the Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (2:00)—punters face four big-field handicap puzzles.
1:20 – Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
This isn’t a race I normally bet on, but I took an each-way punt on Jubilee Alpha after her Windsor win. Confidence has dipped as race day nears, but I still hope for a good run.
Sixandahalf progressed into a useful flat handicapper last season, winning at Newmarket and finishing third in the Irish Cesarewitch. She made a smooth hurdle debut at Fairyhouse and is open to improvement.
Galileo Dame bypasses the Triumph Hurdle and gets a 10lb weight allowance as the only juvenile in the field. She finished strongly when ¾-length second to Hello Neighbour in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. She’s a big player.
Willie Mullins won the first five runnings of this race but is winless in the last four years. He saddles seven of the 24 runners, with Aurora Vega and Karoline Banbou catching my eye.
Aurora Vega improved to 3-4 over hurdles with a Grade 3 win at Fairyhouse and is the pick of Paul Townend.
Karoline Banbou built on her debut promise with a front-running win at Fairyhouse. She has more to offer and should be in the mix.
3:20 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4½f
I backed Protektorat at double-figure odds and remain happy with the bet. The ground might not be soft enough, but he still has plenty going for him.
Fact Or File, last year’s Brown Advisory winner, heads the market. He’s been beaten by Galopin Des Champs on his last two starts. I think he’s vulnerable.
Il Est Francais, runner-up in the King George, will likely make the running. If he handles the track, he has a big chance.
Jungle Boogie may be 11 years old, but with just seven career starts—five over fences—he’s clearly been hard to keep sound. He ran well for a long way in last season’s Gold Cup, still in contention until three out before his stamina gave way. This season, he outclassed three rivals in a Graduation Chase at Ascot on his sole start. That was a sharp performance, and he’s of interest here.
4:00 – Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
Teahupoo, last year’s winner, is seen as vulnerable due to drying ground. However, he won on similar conditions at Punchestown and goes well fresh.
Home By Lee has won back-to-back races and now travels and jumps better. If he’s in top form, he won’t be far away.
Nemean Lion is tough and classy but untested at 3m. If he stays, he’ll be in the mix.
Lucky Place is a progressive stayer, winning Grade 2s at Ascot and Cheltenham (2m4f). If he improves for the extra trip, he’ll go well.
Rocky’s Diamond seemed to improve for 3m when winning the Galmoy Hurdle. He’s a live outsider.
The Wallpark won a 3m handicap at Cheltenham in October and wasn’t seen to best effect in the Long Walk Hurdle. A stronger pace and drying ground could bring out his best.
In tommorrow's column I'll be looking at Gold Cup.
That’s Thursday’s Day 3 preview—good luck with your bets!
John