Hi all,
In yesterday’s column, I looked at Saturday’s Coral Scottish Grand National. Today, I thought I’d share some thoughts on the other four ITV races at Ayr.
Before that, here's a quick micro angle to keep in mind as the new Flat season starts to click into gear. Over the next five weeks, we’ve got a feast of Flat action to enjoy. It kicks off Saturday with the Guineas trials at Newbury’s Greenham Meeting. Next week brings Newmarket’s Craven Meeting and more early Classic pointers. Then it’s Guineas Weekend at HQ, followed by Chester’s May Meeting and York’s Dante Festival.
To get you in the mood, here’s a straightforward and effective micro system I’ve been tracking.
The Micro Angle: Follow-Up Winners
It’s a simple idea – just how the best systems should be. It focuses on race-fit, in-form horses who won last time and are fancied to follow up.
The Rules
Race Type: Flat Handicap
Odds SP: 5/1 & under
Days Since Run: 1 to 21
Last Racing Placing: First
For contest since 2018 – 29% of all flat handicap have been won by qualifiers but if you had backed all of them you would have lost £947.25 to a £1 Level Stake.
As ever, some trainers perform better than others with these qualifiers.
Below are a few trainers who haven’t been profitable.
Here are some of the most profitable.
f you like a system with a strong strike rate and consistent profit (seven seasons and counting), this one’s for you. It’s easy to find qualifiers but if you don’t want to miss them, I’ll be posting them here.
Off to a flyer – First system qualifier scored at 5/1 at Nottingham yesterday.
Now, back to the jumps action…
Ayr ITV Races: Big Names, Big Prizes, Big Clues
The Ayr Coral Scottish Grand National Festival promises top action and a buzzing crowd. Saturday’s card alone boasts a record £500,000 in prize money.
1:10 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (2m)
I flagged Tommy’s Oscar in Tuesday’s column. If he's over last Friday’s unseat, last year’s winner has every chance off 1lb lower.
Malystic, also a past winner, is now 10lb below that success and whilst he’s been mostly below his best this season but was only beaten a head at Kelso on seasonal return,
Willie Mullins could send Tullyhill, second to Majborough on chase debut in December. If he comes, he’ll be fancied.
Traprain Law, second in this last year, is 2lb better off with Tommy’s Oscar. One for the shortlist.
1:43 – CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase (3m)
Mullins has five entries for a race he won last year. Watch the market.
Dan Skelton, twice a winner of this, may run Coco Mademoiselle, who ran well off a break at Sandown last time.
Konfusion jumped well when winning at Uttoxeter and is still progressing—though may not get in.
Ideal Des Bordes could bounce back after a wind op. Henderson won this in 2022.
Irish raider Monbeg Park has top weight, but the trainer won this in 2018. Don’t dismiss.
2:15 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (2m)
Mullins has a strong hand. Ethical Diamond caught the eye when 4th in the County Hurdle and has been well backed since final entries came out on Monday. Stablemate Absurde, third in the County, holds a Newbury John Porter, so may not run.
Kabral Du Mathan skipped Cheltenham and Aintree. Remains unexposed in handicap hurdles.
Valgrand disappointed when well fancied in the County but is better than that and quick ground suits.
Kihavah has won twice at Ayr on the flat and went close in the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen last July. A fresh horse who likes decent ground. At 20/1, he looks a bit of value for a yard whose horses are running well.
2:55 – Mares' Handicap Hurdle (3m½f)
Mullins has Armed And Fabulous and Paggane among the 18 entries
I like Rockola Vogue, who won at Musselburgh last time is capable of more progress in the sphere but needs to jump better.
Lord Maid proved her stamina for three miles at Chepstow last time looks fairly treated. She won on good ground last spring.
Tomorrow, I’ll be focusing on the best of Friday’s action at Ayr and Newbury.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John