Hi all,
On the eve of Super Saturday, it’s Day 2 of the July Festival — and ITV Racing will be showing four races live from Newmarket, plus two more from York.
The Newmarket highlight is the Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (3:35), where January, third in the Coronation Stakes, takes on Crimson Advocate and Cinderella’s Dream, who finished first and second in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Earlier on the card, Venetian Sun is expected to go off a warm favourite in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (2:25) following her impressive Albany Stakes win.
Up at York, the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2:45) tops a competitive seven-race card. Celandine, winner of the Lowther Stakes over C&D last August, makes her seasonal return.
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of the Newmarket action.
Newmarket
1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) – 1m 2f
King’s Charter won at Doncaster and now makes his handicap debut off a fair-looking mark. The yard won this race with a similar type in 2022.
Kurakka impressed on handicap debut at Haydock (1m 4f). He drops back in trip but remains open to progress. Strong claims.
Urban Glimpse has finished second on both handicap starts this season. Another consistent contender for a stable in form.
The Johnston yard has a strong record in this race and saddle two: Cayman Dancer, cheekpieces on for the first time and Marhaba Ghaiyyath, the latter preferred after a good Redcar win over a mile last time.
2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Venetian Sun is the clear form pick after winning the Albany Stakes, but at 8/15 she’s worth taking on if there’s value elsewhere.
Spicy Marg shaped better than her finishing position (10th in the Queen Mary) suggests. She’s capable of taking another step forward here.
Argentine Tango, a Listed winner over C&D last time, is consistent and tough to rule out completely given she keeps winning.
Royal Fixation won a Thirsk novice on debut but takes a big step up in class. Scopey filly and worth keeping on side longer term.
3:00 – bet365 Trophy Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Endless Victory was back to form when seventh in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Proved his stamina for the distance last time and the yard won this in 2018.
Dancing In Paris continues to progress and was narrowly denied in the Northumberland Plate last time. Should go well again if his Newmarlet effort hasn’t left a mark.
Oneforthegutter is on a losing run of 10 but placed in top handicaps last year finishing third in the Ebor Handicap and runner-up in this race. Runner-up at Ayr last time and likely primed for this.
Real Dream ran a cracker when a ¾ length third to Coltrane in a Listed race (2m) at Sandown 7 days ago. Potentially well treated if the quick turnaround doesn’t inconvenience.
3:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Crimson Advocate has flourished since stepping up to a mile this season and looked to have plenty in hand when winning the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Cinderella’s Dream was 1¾ lengths second to Crimson Advocate at Royal Ascot giving away 3lb weight. Still has work to do to reverse that form.
January a personal best when a 1½ lengths 3rd of 11 to Cercene in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Capable of taking another step forward for Aidan O’Brien.
Elwateen didn’t stay 1m 4f in the Oaks but wasn’t far away when fourth in the 1,000 Guineas on just her second career start. Drops back in trip and she remains a filly with potential.
Lady Ilze, the German 1,000 Guineas winner, is no forlorn hope if she handles quicker ground. Her Guineas form has some substance with runner-up finishing 5th in the French Oaks.
Friday Selection
January is an improving 3-year-old and holds strong claims in the Falmouth Stakes — but her current price looks about right. The 1,000 Guineas form has taken a couple of knocks since, which tempers enthusiasm, but Elwateen looks a shade overpriced at 12/1. She's unexposed, drops back to her ideal trip, and the price underestimates her upside.
But the standout bet could be Crimson Advocate. I’ve got her 7/4 on my tissue, and she’s available at 7/2. Yes, she needs to prove herself over a straight mile — but I think she will be fine. She’s the value bet on Friday.
If you want my ‘Super Saturday’ selections and Goodwood and Galway previews you can get them here.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John