Tale of Two Favourites

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I am looking back at the weekend’s action.

Racing’s Futile Strike: A Grade 1 Blunder

There will be no racing in Britain on Wednesday 10th September. The BHA has announced a strike to protest the so-called “Racing Tax.”

Instead of running races, the industry will stage a Westminster campaign event, with senior leaders joined by owners, trainers, and jockeys to highlight the threat of the Treasury’s proposal. The government wants to tax an industry worth £4.1 billion—so naturally, they should be impressed, right?

The sight of owners in blazers, trainers in tweed, jockeys in silks—all waving banners about a tax threat that, let’s face it, the wider public couldn’t care less about.  History has probably never seen a pointless strike than this. How exactly will it sway a government desperate for revenue? Flutter and Entain will pay more in tax, and the public will say good idea.

Whoever dreamed this up at the BHA deserves a Grade 1 fool badge. The idea is well-intentioned—but utterly naïve and ultimately futile.

Weekend Recap

Plenty of racing took place on the weekend before York’s Ebor Festival, which gets underway on Wednesday.

Saturday was poor for me betting-wise, but stakes were small, so no real damage done. I would have preferred to have gone into York in winning form but when I don’t I usually end up making a profit.

Tale of Two Favourites

It was a day of contrasts for two well fancied favourites.

More Thunder – Bunbury Cup winner turned Group horse – had no issues stepping up in grade when landing the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. It wasn’t the deepest renewal, but he showed he belongs in Group 1 company. The new Group 1 City of York Stakes this Saturday may come too soon. Dropping back to 6f for the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock is an option, though I’d worry if the ground was quick back in trip. The Prix Forêt at Longchamp over 7f looks the ideal fit.

Los Angeles – Back from a break, Aidan O’Brien’s colt couldn’t match Zahrann’s pace in the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes at the Curragh. He was better than his Prince of Wales’s run at Ascot, but still short of his best. As I said then, he needs further than 1m2f. He’s been trained with the Arc in mind, but right now he’s running well below that standard. That said, it’s O’Brien, so don’t be surprised if he improves sharply in the autumn.

Zahrann, runner-up to Amiloc in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f) on his previous start, is clearly a colt on the up. The drop back to 1m2f was no issue, and post-race trainer Johnny Murtagh suggested he’ll stick to the trip with the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes the likely next target. Whether he’s up to that level remains to be seen, but I’d say there’s every chance he will be.

Elsewhere on Saturday

At Newbury, the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes went to Furthur, who had finished runner-up to Carmers in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot two starts back. He bounced back from a below-par effort behind Scandinavia in the Bahrain Trophy and won this comfortably. He’s now a best priced 20/1 with William Hill for the St Leger. He’ll line up at Doncaster, but for me he looks no more than an each-way contender for the final Classic.

Ripon’s feature, the Great St Wilfrid Handicap, fell to Intervention (16/1). The 8-year-old made all down the far side from stall 1 to record his first turf win in three years.

It looked a weak renewal on paper, and the result seemed to confirm that view.  I had discounted those drawn in the first quarter stalls, based on trends, but racing has a way of busting those patterns we weave. I hadn’t fancied the winner at all, but I had liked his stablemate Annaf, who wasn’t declared—perhaps that was the angle I should followed.

Diego Velazquez Strikes in the Jacques le Marois

For the second weekend running the biggest race wasn’t on these shores but at Deauville. The Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois, with £472,231 to the winner, dwarfed anything on offer in Britain or Ireland.

The going was officially “soft,” but French descriptions are rarely reliable, and Deauville has ridden quicker all summer. This looked no different — closer to good, maybe the quicker side of it.

With Rosallion ruled out by a bruised foot, UK bookmakers sent The Lion In Winter off favourite after his return to form last time. Next in was the Japanese filly Ascoli Piceno, a Grade 1 mile winner in Tokyo on her latest start.

The Lion In Winter set the pace but once Dancing Gemini swept past two furlongs out, he quickly folded, trailing in last of the ten.  He probably needs softer ground, but he looks finished to me.

Ascoli Piceno sat midfield but never landed a blow and proved disappointing.

I was with Dancing Gemini. He bounced back to form and looked the winner until Diego Velazquez and Notable Speech cut him down late. The Roger Teal-trained 4-year-old would have preferred the ground a shade slower, but this was a solid effort all the same.

Notable Speech unlucky as Soumillon times it perfectly

Diego Velazquez, running in the Sangster silks for the first time, got a perfect Christophe Soumillon ride. Always well positioned, he swept to the front inside the final half furlong and held off the late charge of Notable Speech. Bound for stud at the end of the year, he’ll likely take in the Prix du Moulin and the QEII before then, with a possible tilt at the Breeders’ Cup Mile — though a turning US track may not suit him like a straight course.

Notable Speech was luckless. Denied a run two out, he flashed home once in the clear, only a head down at the line and in front strides after it. His style means he’ll always need the gaps to open, but at least he’s back to form and another Group 1 looks well within reach.

York Ebor Festival Countdown

York’s Ebor Festival is my standout summer flat meeting. For me it’s better than Royal Ascot and certainly miles ahead of Glorious Goodwood in terms of quality. As I mentioned on Friday, I’ll be there on Wednesday, and I’ve now also got an invite for Nunthorpe Day on Friday. No way I could turn that down.

My form study for Day 1 has already begun. If you want my previews and final selections, you can get them here.

I’ll be doing columns on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. That’s probably it, though there might be one for Saturday’s Ebor Handicap depending how late I get back from York on Friday. Truth be told, I wouldn’t go to Ebor Day if you paid me. It’s been a few years since I last went, but it always seemed to draw plenty of football lads, and I can do without endless “We All Hate Leeds Sc**” chants after a long day’s racing.

Monday Racing

You can tell Monday’s flat racing is poor when the most valuable race is a handicap chase (3:57) at Stratford.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John