Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm looking ahead to the weekend's action. Plus, there's a Wednesday free tip from Musselburgh.
I hope you all enjoyed summer’s final fling over the last couple of days. We may still get some pleasantly warm weather in the autumn, but the meteorological summer is almost over and by this time next week, it will be firmly behind us. Rain is forecast for the rest of the week, some of it heavy, and temperatures will take on a distinctly autumnal feel. Not that the rain isn’t welcome.
As ever, as summer fades into autumn, punters face new challenges. Cooler mornings and shorter days signal the end of turf evening meetings, while weather shifts bring softer ground. September also sees horses returning from their summer breaks, which complicates form analysis.
With a change of season also comes fresh hope and new opportunities.
Weekend Highlights: Sandown, Chester, Beverley and the Curragh
After the Ebor Festival, the upcoming weekend’s action is low-key. Sandown hosts two Group 3 contests: the Solario Stakes (3.35) and the Atalanta Stakes (2.25), while Chester and Beverley stage Listed races, with Beverley’s biggest of the season, the Beverley Bullet (2.05), taking centre stage.
Arguably the standout action is across the Irish Sea at the Curragh. The big betting race is the Irish Cambridgeshire (4.37), alongside three Group 3s on the card.
ITV Racing will cover four races live from Sandown and two each from Beverley and Chester on Saturday afternoon.
Irish Cambridgeshire: Early Entries Make No Sense
There’s been much talk recently about early closing Group 1s and their effect on field sizes. Early closing used to make sense, particularly for ante-post betting opportunities in big handicaps. The Irish Cambridgeshire is a perfect example. Entries have been out for what feels like weeks, yet as of Monday morning, not a single bookmaker had priced up the race. It highlights the decline of ante-post betting – Cheltenham aside. Back in the day, it used to have a lively ante-post market. If ante-post betting isn’t happening, what’s the point of releasing entries so early? Perhaps waiting until the five-day stage, as with other handicaps, would make more sense.
Taking an early peek at this year's Irish Cambridgeshire. State Actor was caught in the final strides when a head runner-up in last year’s race. Looked unsuited by good to firm ground at Leopardstown last time. He’s 2lb higher than 12 months ago but he’s a dual C&D winner. Provided it’s not too quick and he gets a decent draw he shouldn’t be far away.
Coeur d'Or was a 1 ½ length fourth in last year’s race. His best three RPR’s have come over C&D and he’s back down to the same mark as when winning this in 2023. He ran ok on his first two starts this season and this has likely been the plan.
Beverley and Chester
Looking at the big races this side of the Irish Sea on Saturday. Hamish would have a big class advantage if he was to line-up in the Virgin Bet Chester Stakes, but he’ll need the rain to arrive to run.
Regional is another with a class advantage in the Listed William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes. He’s been running in better company this season and whilst he hasn’t been at his very best this is easier. Provided the ground stays on the quick side he should be tough to beat.
Clive Cox saddled the winner of the Beverley Bullet three times between 2021 & 2023 and has two entries in Kerdos the 2023 winner and the 3-year-old Redorange.
Blue Storm could make a belated seasonal return. He’s got a chance on the best of last season’s form but may need the run after a 308-day layoff and there’s likely other autumn targets on the agenda. Well, that’s my hope anyway.
I’ll have a look at the Sandown action in Thursday’s column.
Wednesday Free Tip:
Woodstock went down by just a head at Ripon yesterday, so hopefully we’re edging closer to a winner. For today’s free Daily Punt tip, I’m heading to Musselburgh.
Musselburgh – 4:00
Stand Strong finally got his head in front at the 14th attempt when scoring over 2m at Newcastle 26 days ago. The step up in trip clearly suited him, and a 4lb rise looks fair given how well he was on top at the finish. There should be more to come now he’s tackling these longer distances, and today’s 2m 2f looks within his stamina range.
Elemental Eye has been admirably consistent at a modest level this summer, winning at Redcar (2m) before finding a slowly run race over this C&D against him last time. At around 8/1 he’s a solid each-way option, but preference is for Stand Strong to back up his breakthrough success.
Stand Strong – £2 win – 9/2
Running Total = £94
Good luck with your Wednesday bets
John