Hi all,
Future Winners in a Transition Month
Normally on a Tuesday I’m looking back at last week’s racing to spot future winners. But we’ve now stepped into September, that stage of the flat season where I’m looking for less flat eyecatchers.
The winter jumps campaign is almost here, and from the start of October my focus will switch firmly to the jumpers.
For now, we’re very much in that transition month. Any flat horses flagged up as ‘ones to follow’ will be those with possible big-race targets still to come before the season winds down. This week’s ‘future winners’ reflects exactly that. There’s just the one for the tracker, plus two more I want to keep onside for the closing weeks of the campaign.
When it comes to September eyecatchers, I’m especially interested in those who return from a short break and look to have been freshened up for an autumn campaign. All three I’m highlighting from Sandown on Saturday fit that mould.
Ellaria Sand (Ollie Sangster)
Made a pleasing return from a 97-day layoff when finishing a 2-length 3rd of 11 in the opening 7f handicap at Sandown. The 3yo, who won a Newbury Listed race on heavy ground last October, shaped as though the run would bring her forward. She could be worth another try at a mile, but even staying at 7f she’s one to keep in mind once the mud is flying.
Skellet will have gone into plenty of notebooks after her 3rd of 13 to Lady Of Spain in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes. She hadn’t been seen for 84 days and took a bad stumble early, so it was to her credit that she was still able to finish so close. A race against her own sex looks there for the taking before the season is out.
I flagged up Saddadd’s handicap success in Monday’s column, but it’s worth repeating here. He’s now landed two valuable handicaps and while he handled the soft ground well at Sandown, he doesn’t need it testing — just not quick. Handicaps are out of the question now, and his connections are right to be thinking bigger. He’s in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot, which is obviously a serious step up in class, but he’s going the right way and will be fresher than most. Why not roll the dice?
Tuesday Racing
For my 30-day staking plan I’m working around horses whose average odds are 5/1. At those odds, the maths says something important about losing runs.
Across 100 bets, you should expect 15 or 16 straight losers. Stretch that to 500 bets, and the figure rises to around 22 or 23. In other words, if you’re backing at 5/1 all season, a spell of 20+ consecutive losers is not unusual. It isn’t bad luck, poor form, or bad selections. It’s just probability doing its job.
Now picture joining a tipster for a month and hitting 23 losers in a row. Most punters would give up, convinced the service doesn’t work, and move on to the next. Yet those losing spells are inevitable at the prices being played.
The truth is, very few can stomach runs like that. But they don’t prove a service is poor. They simply show the mathematics of betting in action. That’s where a staking plan comes in. By keeping bets small- say 2% of the bank each time- you protect your balance during the inevitable losing spells and stay in the game long enough for the winners to land.
Goodwood
For today’s staking plan example, I’m heading to Goodwood and the 2m Royal Sussex Regiment Handicap (4:08).
The first thing that strikes me about the race is the lack of a guaranteed front runner among the six runners.
My initial fancy was Novelista, though he’s already shorter than the 5/1 target. At the time of writing, William Hill were the only firm pricing up the race, making him an 11/4 shot. This three-year-old has improved since stepping up to 1m6f and it’s surprising he’s still a maiden after eight starts. He shaped as though he needed more of stamina test in the Melrose at York, finishing seventh, beaten five and a half lengths. Today’s test of 2m on soft ground looks ideal, and his light weight gives him a major chance.
Who’s Glen caught the eye in the Chester Cup, finishing fifth, but he’s gone backwards since. His latest run was disappointing, especially as conditions should have suited. Andrew Balding reaches for first-time headgear in the hope of sparking him back to life. The step back up to 2m is in his favour, but he has plenty to prove now.
Course specialist Aggagio must enter the reckoning. He’s a five-time Goodwood winner, three of them over today’s C&D. He ran a solid third behind the improving Belgravian here nine days ago on ground that was probably quick enough. Easier going today makes him a danger.
Finally, Sixpack almost got the job done here in May, beaten only a nose over 1m6f. He returns from a break, 3lb higher, but conditions should suit, and the step up to 2m could eke out more improvement. Provided he’s not ridden too far off the pace he can go close.
Sixpack – £2 win – 6/1
Running Total – £86
In tomorrow’s column I’ll be looking at Saturday’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John