Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup.
The big-race caravan heads north this week for Ayr’s Western Meeting. Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup is the showpiece of the three-day fixture, which kicks off on Thursday.
First staged in 1908, the Ayr Gold Cup is one of the most historic and prestigious sprint handicaps in the Flat calendar. In 1936 Marmaduke Jinks carried just 6st 13lb to victory before going on to add the Lincoln Handicap the following year. If you’ve ever played the board game Totopoly, you’ll remember his name among the horses.
For all its fame, Scottish-trained winners have been rarer than hen’s teeth. You need to go back to 1975, when Roman Warrior carried 10st to glory. Since 1997, local runners are 0 winners from 50 bets, with only three hitting the frame.
Ayr Gold Cup
Looking at the trends since 2008 (excluding the 2017 renewal run at Haydock), there have been 17 winners (dead heat in 2018) from 402 runners. All 17 matched three key trends:
Stalls: not drawn 1–7
Odds: 28/1 or shorter
Wins at the track: none.
Breaking those down further:
Stalls 1–7: 0 wins from 110 runners, 11 places (Exp/Wins 6.62)
33/1+ SP: 0 wins from 116, 6 places (Exp/Wins 2.53)
Previous Ayr winners: 0 wins from 71, 8 places (Exp/Wins 4.18)
So, while course winners have struggled, course experience is a plus. Horses with at least one prior run at Ayr have produced 8 winners from 70 runners (+45.5 to SP), 20 places.
The sweet spot in ratings terms is 100–105.
This year only eight entries are rated 100+, including Jordan Electrics and Alfa Kellenic – both previous C&D winners.
Trends Verdict:
The Ayr Gold Cup has been a strong trends race. Of course, trends can be smashed in an instant, but I’ll be sticking with the three key rules to draw up my final shortlist.
Ayr Gold Cup Contenders
Until the draw is made, I wouldn’t want an ante-post bet. Still, a few stand out as early players.
Rather predictably, favourite Northern Ticker heads the list. He carries a 5lb penalty for his Constantine Handicap win at York, but that won’t stop the progressive 3yo. Easier ground should bring even more improvement. With the right draw, he’s the likeliest winner.
Strike Red is knocking on the door in big field handicaps. He’ll enjoy easier ground after finishing tenth last year on good to firm.
Two Tribes, winner of the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood, was only three-quarters of a length behind Northern Ticker at York and is 5lb better off now. He should run well again, though softer conditions may not suit.
Korker finished third to Lethal Levi in last year’s renewal and is 6lb lower this time. He hasn’t won this season but retains ability and handles any ground. Yet to score over 6f, but that win should come when everything drops right.
Fahrenheit Seven, last seen winning at Hamilton 107 days ago, could sneak in at the foot of the weights. Now with Robert Cowell, he’s up 7lb but remains progressive and capable of better than he’s shown.
Alfa Kellenic landed last year’s Silver Cup with ease. Absent so far this season, there’s a suspicion of a setback. Still, she won first time up last year and might have been trained with this in mind. We’ll find out on Saturday whether it’s been a training masterstroke.
Annaf tops the weights. Well beaten in the Group 1 Sprint Cup, he was also unlucky in the Stewards’ Cup, where he would have finished much close than 12th with a clear run. He’s just 1lb higher than when taking the Portland in 2023 and has the class to get involved.
Thursday Racing
We’ve got two Listed races on Wednesday, the Fortune Stakes (3.35) at Sandown and the John Musker Fillies' Stakes (4.00) at Yarmouth. I wasn’t going to have a bet today but having looked at a handful of races, I think I will be.
Yarmouth
Running Lion is the class act in the John Musker, though she isn’t the most reliable. Connections reach for first-time blinkers, and at 5/2 she looks fairly priced to make all. Drawn out wide in stall 11 isn’t helpful though. He stablemates Rainbow’s Edge and Life Is Beautiful also line up. The latter went close in a Group 3 at Deauville and won’t mind soft ground.
The Class 3 handicap (4.35) looks competitive. Sea Force and Whip Cracker are vying for favouritism and have obvious claims. Sea Force shaped well at York last time and today’s extra furlong should suit. Whip Cracker, a narrow runner-up at Goodwood, remains competitively weighted despite a 3lb rise. Valvano likes soft ground but returns from a lay-off and surely further. I like the claims of the least exposed runner in the line-up Love Beach. A winner of a Haydock maiden two starts back. He was well fancied to make a winning handicap debut at Chester but finished a well beaten fifth. Maybe the track didn’t suit the last day, and the ground was also likely too quick. Back from a short break and on easier going I can see him going well.
Sandown
Just six runners line up for the Fortune Stakes (1m), but it’s an intriguing renewal. First a quick looks at the trends. Three-year-old’s have won eight of the last running’s of the race.
That age stat isn’t helpful this year as three of the four leading fancies are 3yo’s.
Sallaal bids to follow up two wins at Hamilton and looked a Group horse in a handicap last time. He won on soft ground on debut last October so should be fine on the going.
Chantilly Lace, highly tried this year, running well in Group 1 company and wasn’t disgraced when a close-up third in the Group 3 Valiant Fillies' Stakes at Ascot last time. She won heavy on debut last autumn so underfoot conditions shouldn’t faze her. Looks a major player if on song.
Pina Sonata looked a big improver when landing a Leicester novice (good to soft) on her penultimate start. The step up to Group 1 company came too soon when she finished 11th of 13 in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville on just her fourth run. With her sights lowered, she remains capable of better.
The 5yo Cicero’s Gift, a proven miler goes well on soft ground cut, comes here off two solid runs finishing a ¾-length 2nd of 11 in a Group 3 at Deauville last time.
The staking challenge returns from a two-day absence. Today’s selection is from Yarmouth.
I’ll be back on Thursday to look at the best of the action from Ayr’s Western Meeting.
Yarmouth
4:35 – Love Beach – 8/1
Running Total – £79.20
All the best with your Thursday bets.
John