Western Meeting Kicks Off with Competitive Kilkerran Handicap

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on day one of Ayr’s Western Meeting.

Conditions seem likely to be testing for today’s racing at Ayr. As of Wednesday morning, the BHA site had the going at soft, good to soft in places with a stick reading of 6.2. That looks accurate, but any further rain will imo see it soft all over.

It’s a big shift from last year. Twelve months ago, this card opened on officially good ground (8.1 on the stick), quickening to 8.3 by Gold Cup Day. This time the forecast is very different. With rain due Friday night and little sun around, there’s no chance of Saturday’s big race being run on good to firm as it was in 2024.

Anyway, onto today’s action.

Ayr

Ayr’s Western Meeting gets underway this afternoon with an eight-race card. Day one is always the weakest of the three in terms of quality, and this year is no different. It’s tricky looking card. Plenty of horses look well treated, while others could bounce back, returned to easier ground.

The feature is the Ladbrokes Kilkerran Handicap (2:45), a Class 2 over 1m2f with £30,000 in prize money. I was hoping conditions might be better than soft, but it seems that won’t be the case for the big handicap.

2:45 – Ladbrokes “Free Bet At Ayr” Kilkerran Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f

Crowd Quake comes here in fine form. He made it six wins in 2025 on his penultimate start before running a huge race when beaten just a head at Doncaster (1m4f) last week. He runs off the same mark and is 5lb well in. The drop in trip isn’t an issue, but softer ground is a slight worry albeit he has won on good to soft.

Dain Ma Nut In landed a York handicap (1m2½f) last time thanks to a good front running ride. He’s up 4lb but remains progressive. Soft ground is a question, but if he handles it, is a strong contender. Won the mile handicap on this card 12 months ago.

Liberty Coach is 3lb higher than when winning the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar in May. He proved he can handle soft when scoring at the same track last autumn. He’s best when able to dictate and will face pressure for the lead here. Yard won this in 2020.

Have Secret returns from a break and looks in the handicapper's grip. Only fifth in this race on good ground last year but he’s a effective on rain softened ground. Needs a strong pace but with Warren Fentiman claiming 5lb, can’t be dismissed if he gets it.

Financer returned to the winner’s enclosure in this race last year from 2lb lower. In and out this season and soft ground is an unknown (0-3). Cheekpieces go on for the first time though which makes him of interest.

Dark Moon Rising is an inconsistent handicapper who ideally needs further but has run to form on his last two starts. He finished a ½-length third in last years race and can race off 3lb lower this time around. Nicely treated but drying ground would be preferable.

Verdict:

Crowd Quake and Dain Ma Nut In are the inform horses, but the ground will be different to last time for both. Dain Ma Nut In has a handy draw in stall for front runner and there remains some juice in his price. If getting a strong pace Have Secret has each-way claims.

Rest of the card

2:15 – Handicap (Class 5) – 5f

Vince L'Amour ran well when third of 14 at Haydock 13 days ago. He thrives on testing ground – 3 wins and 4 places from 7 runs on soft/heavy – compared with 0 from 20 on better going. He’s now 7lb lower than his last winning mark. A big chance if stall 1 doesn't prove a hinderance. Never Dark has been out of form this season but has tumbled down the handicap. Blinkers are applied for the first time and that combined with booking of Tom Marquand make him of interest at big odds.

5:20 – Handicap (Class 3) – 1m5f

Not much pace on paper. That could play into Surrey Belle’s hands as she’s the only guaranteed front-runner in the line-up. She was a close second in the Chester Plate back in May and handles soft. Fresh from a break, she represents a yard that won this race last year.

Thursday Staking Challenge Selection

Ayr

2:15 – Vince L'Amour – £1.60 win

Running Total – £77.60

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John