Taking The High Road to Ayr

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the five ITV races from Ayr.

Sprint handicaps don’t get more competitive than the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup. Goodwood Stewards Cup winner Two Tribes heads the weights as he bids for back-to-back victories. The market, though, is led by Northern Ticker, a progressive three-year-old who won well at York on his latest start.

The Ayr Gold Cup has a habit of producing big-priced winners. Since 2008, eight have returned between 14/1 and 28/1. However, those going off 33/1 or bigger are 0 from 116, with only six placing.

The undercard at Ayr features the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes (3:00) and the Ladbrokes Silver Cup (2:25), the consolation race for those who missed the cut for the big race. ITV Racing will be live with the first five races from Ayr, along with four from Newbury. The Berkshire card is headed by the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes (3:15) and the Group 3 World Trophy (1:30).

The Mill Reef doesn’t carry the prestige it once did. Recent winners haven’t gone on to be top-class three-year-olds, though Harry Angel (2016) and Ribchester (2015) did come through the race. A future star could still emerge.

Ayr

The going was genuinely soft on Thursday. Not much rain was forecast, but the ground surely won’t have quickened up. If the sun comes out it could get closer to good to soft but otherwise, I think it will be soft. It certainly won’t be as quick as it was 12 months ago.

1:15 – Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Khafiz was outclassed in a Group 3 at Deauville last time but had won his previous two starts. A stiff mark on handicap debut, but he should go well. His yard won this in 2016.

Mr King had no run 3f out when eighth at Haydock last time. He isn’t the most reliable but was third in last year’s race from 9lb higher. Handicapped to go close.

Apiarist was too keen when tenth of 17 in the Clipper Handicap at York. Better on AW but has turf wins on soft ground. On a going day he’s dangerous.

1:50 – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) – 1m2f

Almeric looked smart when landing the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket in April. He returns from a break but goes well fresh and relishes ease. With conditions in his favour, he’s the one to beat. He’ll be the key leg in many punters multiples on Saturday.

2:25 – Ayr Silver Cup (Class 2) – 6f

Fivethousandtoone shaped well when staying on for sixth in the Portland at Doncaster last time. He’s 10lb lower on turf than AW and looks ready to strike. The yard has won this twice since 2019. Wide draw in 25 could be a help or a hindrance.

Nariko has won both starts this season, the latest in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton. Back from another short break but she goes well fresh and has soft/heavy ground form figures of 1211. Now 4lb higher but will remain competitive.

3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

Catching The Moon impressed at Beverley, and that form has subsequently worked out nicely. She should stay 6f and has scope to improve. Her yard has won this twice. Unknown on soft.

Coming Attraction has won her last two and holds a Cheveley Park entry. She’s open to progress and her pedigree suggests she’ll handle cut. A solid favourite.

3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

I previewed the race in Wednesday column.  You needed to race far side in Friday’s Bronze Cup. But than can often be the case in the consolation races before things move more towards those drawn middle in the big race.  Most of those on my own shortlist are drawn high.

Staking Challenge Selection

Saturday’s staking challenge selection is from Newbury.

Newbury

2:05 – Castle Cove – 13/2

Running Total: £74.40

I’m taking a short break to the Isle of Man next week. I might be able to put together a recap of Saturday’s action for Monday’s column. If not, my next column will be on Friday.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John