Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s big betting race the Cesarewitch at Newmarket.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1
Newmarket’s two-day Cesarewitch meeting kicks off on Friday. The highlight is the Group 1 Fillies Mile (2:57). A good undercard also features three other Group races plus the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (3:30).
Friday is a big day for National Hunt followers.The 2025-26 NH season might have officially begun in May but for jumps fans the real start of the winter NH season is Chepstow’s now three-day Welsh Racing Festival. The highlight of the Chepstow card is the Grade 2 Dragonbet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (3.43).
ITV Racing are ten races live on Friday afternoon, five races from Newmarket, three from York and two from Chepstow.
Cesarewitch Handicap
The Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the oldest and toughest staying handicaps in British racing. Run over 2 miles and 2 furlongs at Newmarket in mid-October, it forms the second leg of the traditional “Autumn Double” alongside the Cambridgeshire. First staged in 1839, it attracts a mix of Flat stayers and smart dual-purpose types — a rare blend that adds to its charm.
The long-distance nature of the race means stamina and patience are key. Horses who travel smoothly and conserve energy early often come to the fore late on the Rowley Mile’s testing finish. NH trainers like Willie Mullins have made the contest their own in recent years, using hurdlers to devastating effect
For punters, the Cesarewitch is a puzzle with plenty of pieces – form, draw, pace, and ground all matter. But that’s what makes it special. It’s a true test of endurance, tactics, and timing.
In short: the Cesarewitch isn’t just another handicap, it’s racing’s great autumn marathon.
Cesarewitch Ten Year Trends
Delving into horseracebase I’ve found what I consider are the three most interesting trends.
Stalls: 25+ – 0 winners from 85 runners, 6 places. That trend was as useful as chocolate fire guard last year as there were just 24 runners and isn’t likely to be helpful this year either.
Last Race Distance: Between 1m5f & 2m – 0 winners from 148 runners, 14 places.
Last Time Out Track: Newmarket – 0 winners from 41 runners, 2 places.
Cesarewitch 2025 – Big Field, Big Questions
The Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket is never short on intrigue, and this year’s renewal looks typically wide open. It’s a test of stamina and nerve, and several familiar names are back for another crack.
Just 25 were left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage, ahead of declarations. From 1997 to 2021, the Cesarewitch never drew fewer than 30 runners, but the numbers have dipped recently – just 21 lined up in 2022, before a bounce back to 31 last year. With 24 last season and fewer likely this time, it’s a worrying trend for flat staying handicaps.
Vying for Favouritism
Four horses – Bunting, Reverend Hubert, Alphonse Le Grande, and East India Dock — were vying for favouritism on Monday.
Willie Mullins and owner Tony Bloom, who landed this in 2019 with Stratum, have Bunting among the entries. He was doing his best work late on when a two-length 5th of 17 in the Petingo Handicap last time. The step up to this marathon trip could bring further improvement from the five-year-old.
Mullins may also run Hipop De Loire, a 5¾-length third to Sweet William in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup (2m2f). He looked to see out the distance fine that day, and you can’t dismiss him despite top weight.
Stablemate Winter Fog adds depth to the Mullins challenge. A Graded winner over hurdles, the veteran 11-year-old got off the mark on the Flat at the third attempt when taking a Tramore maiden (2m). Rated 148 over hurdles, he looks potentially well treated from a mark of 84 on the level.
Returning from Last Year
Reverend Hubert won the Cesarewitch Trial over the same course and distance and carries a 4lb penalty, which should secure his place in the line-up. Trained by Charles Byrnes, who took this in 2022, he’s sure to be popular. Even so, last year’s eighth-place finish on soft ground and modest stats for Trial winners (1-57, four places) temper enthusiasm.
Last year’s winner Alphonse Le Grande returns for Tony Martin. He’s 6lb higher now but shaped well at York last time and remains a threat. Interesting that Martin had two other entries and relies on just last year’s winner.
Manxman, a nose second in last year’s renewal, warmed up well at Goodwood last time. He should go well again, though may weighted to his best. Apprentice Jack Callan takes off handy 5lb which eases the burden
Dawn Rising, fifth in the Irish Cesarewitch last time, is usually dependable in these staying handicaps. He was a 3¾-length sixth in last year’s renewal and now returns 7lb lower and much better off with Alphonse Le Grande and Manxman, which makes him of interest.
Others to Note
Improving Beylerbeyi continues to progress and runs off a lower mark than when a close third at Newbury last month. Stamina to prove but he’s hold-up style could be risky in a race like this, but he’s on the shortlist with Billy Loughnane already jocked up.
Hughie Morrison’s Caprelo is interestingoff a light weight after a career-best win at Kempton (2m) last time. The step up to 2m 2f could unlock further improvement for a yard that won this in 2016 and has had four others place.
Mordor, trained by Gordon Elliott, ran a fine race when 9½ lengths 2nd of 12 to Kyle of Lochalsh at Goodwood (2m4½f) last time. A return to easier ground and the longer trip clearly suited the 5yo. Lightly raced on the Flat, he looks capable of a big run off his current mark.
Fireblade, a two-mile winner at the Shergar Cup three starts back, bounced back to form when a short-head 3rd of 10 at York (2m½f) last month. The way he finished his race last time suggests 2m 2f should be within his stamina range and he’s lively outsider.
In Thursday's column I'll be looking at Welsh Racing Festival which gets underway at Chepstow on Friday.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John