Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I take a quick look at Saturday’s Group 1 William Hill Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. I’m also talking about betting banks and why, if you’ve got an edge, compound staking is the way to go.
William Hill Futurity Trophy
Thirteen were left in Saturday’s William Hill Futurity Trophy at Monday’s final confirmation stage, and one even ran at Pontefract on Monday afternoon.
Nine of the 13 come from the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien yard, including early ante-post favourite Benvenuto Cellini. However, the money, though, has been for stablemate Mountain Hawk. He landed the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last time and, as I said after that win, he’ll be tough to beat if he travels over for this race. This week’s market support suggests he will.
Of the non-O’Brien contenders, Item could be the one. The Andrew Balding-trained colt is unbeaten in two after a smooth Ffos Las novice win and looks open to plenty of improvement. If the ground is too testing, he probably won’t line-up.
Oxagon, runner-up to Puerto Rico in the Champagne Stakes, wasn’t disgraced when fifth in the Dewhurst. He actually tops the field on official ratings, and the step up to a mile, plus easier ground, should both help.
This year’s final Group 1 of the British Flat season carries a sense of inevitability. It’s hard to look beyond whatever O’Brien sends across. The Ballydoyle maestro looks set to take the £113,420 prize back to Ireland unless Item or Oxagon can take another step forward.
Either way, we could close the domestic Group 1 season on a high, with a high-class winner on Town Moor.
Building a Smarter Betting Bank
I have had questions from readers regarding the jockey change system I highlighted on Tuesday and the staking plan to use.
Anyone running a successful system knows that finding winners is only half the battle. The other half is managing your staking, so the profits remain. My National Hunt Jockeys system has returned an impressive 85% ROI to Betfair SP from over 300 bets, so it deserves a disciplined structure to keep it on track.
The Right Betting Bank
A 24% strike-rate means there will be losing runs, so the first step is a proper betting bank. I’m using a 75-point bank. That gives enough room to handle natural ups and downs without risking a wipeout. If your point is £10, that’s a starting bank of £750. Simple, affordable, and easy to grow.
Why Compound Staking Works
Flat staking is fine, but compound staking makes the most of a system with a genuine edge. Instead of betting the same amount each time, you stake a fixed percentage of your current bank — I’m using 2% per bet. That means if the bank grows, your stakes grow too. If it dips, your stakes automatically shrink, thus protecting your betting bank.
Here’s how it works:
– Starting bank £750 → first stake £15 (2%)
– Bank rises to £900 → next stake £18
– Bank dips to £600 → next stake £12
Over time, this approach compounds your profits steadily without exposing you to wild swings.
A Quick Example
Period Starting Bank 2% Stake Profit (85% ROI) New Bank
Bets 1-25 £750 £15 +£319 £1,069
26-50 £1,069 £21 +£449 £1,518
51-75 £1,518 £30 +£637 £2,155
76-100 £2,155 £43 +£905 £3,060
In just 100 bets, the bank could roughly quadruple — all from steady compounding, not chasing.
Visualising the Growth
Below is the projected bank growth curve for the same 100-bet period. It shows how small, steady increases early on snowball into bigger profits later — the beauty of compounding at work.
Chart: NH Jockeys System — 75pt Bank with 2% Compound Staking
Why It Suits This System
With 24% winners and strong value indicators (A/E 1.51 and BF A/E 1.70), the NH Jockeys system has a genuine edge. It doesn’t rely on one big-priced winner. The system is consistent enough to benefit from stakes that grow organically alongside the bank. The 75-point cushion absorbs losing runs, while the 2% rule keeps you compounding smartly without chasing.
Final Thoughts
It’s tempting to tinker or go in heavier when your system is flying. Don’t. Let the numbers do the work. A steady 2% compound plan with a 75-point bank will let your profits grow quietly in the background. However, compound staking only works if you have a genuine edge and that's the hard part. Betting banks aren’t exciting – until you look back six months later and see how much they’ve grown.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John