Aidan O’Brien Dominates Juvenile Division

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece, I’m starting a three-part look at this season’s leading juveniles and what they might tell us about next year’s Classics. Plus, there's a look at this afternoon's all-weather card at Kempton.

I promised last week to cover the two-year-olds, but the Breeders’ Cup rather got in the way. So, let’s put that right today.

Timeform recently updated its two-year-old ratings. Here's their top ten:

118 Gewan (Andrew Balding)

117p Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)

117 Puerto Rico (Aidan O'Brien)

116p Action (Aidan O'Brien)

116 Gstaad (Aidan O'Brien)

114 Zavateri (Eve Johnson Houghton)

113p Precise (Aidan O'Brien)

112p Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)

112 Distant Storm (Charlie Appleby)

112 Wise Approach (Charlie Appleby)

Just the one filly in Precise alongside nine colt’s.  

The dominance of Aidan O’Brien is clear – six of the top ten – yet the number one spot belongs to Gewan, trained by Andrew Balding, after his impressive Dewhurst Stakes win.

Aidan’s recent 2,000 Guineas record doesn’t inspire confidence, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he swept all five British Classics next year.

Colts to Follow: 2,000 Guineas Contenders

O’Brien has the ante-post favourite Albert Einstein, unbeaten in two starts and last seen winning a Group 3 at the Curragh in May. He’s a smart prospect, no question, but I can’t have him as favourite for the Guineas just yet.

The four colts I’m most interested in heading into the winter are Gewan, Puerto Rico, Bow Park, and Raaheeb. The last two don’t feature in the Timeform top ten, but both look capable of improvement as three-year-olds.

Raaheeb, a full brother to Baaeed and Hukum, won a 7f maiden at Ascot in September. He has a large ‘P’ from Timeform — clear evidence of his potential. Whether Owen Burrows targets the 2,000 Guineas or takes the Derby Trial route remains to be seen. I suspect it’ll be the latter. Whichever path he takes he’s on to keep onside next year.

For now, my main 2,000 Guineas fancies are Gewan and Bow Park, both available at 12/1. Gewan’s Dewhurst win has been underestimated. If he were trained by Aidan O’Brien, he’d be around 4/1. Likewise, Bow Park looks a fair price. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either for the first colt’s Classic.

That’s my early take on the leading juvenile colts and how next year’s 2,000 Guineas might shape up. In Part Two, I’ll turn the focus to the fillies’ and look at potential contenders for the 1,000 Guineas.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend

ITV Racing will cover action from Wincanton, Aintree and Doncaster on Saturday.

At Wincanton, the feature races are the Grade 2 Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (2:23), the BetMGM Elite Hurdle (2:55), and the 64th Badger Beers Handicap Chase (3:30).

The going was good to firm earlier in the week. The track’s first meeting was abandoned because of firm ground, but racing will go ahead this weekend. However, the course badly needs the forecast rain without it, field sizes could be on the small side.

Aintree stages the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:40), run over the famous National fences, while Doncaster hosts the final meeting of the 2025 Flat season. The highlight there is the Virgin Bet November Handicap, and with plenty of rain around, there won’t be any shortage of runners.

Before that, the ITV cameras head to Exeter and Hexham on Friday, covering four races from Exeter and two from Hexham. The highlight is the Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase, which could be one of the races of the weekend if all the leading candidates line up.

Kalif Du Berlais, an Aintree Grade 1 novice chase winner in April, heads the early betting on his seasonal return. It’s no easy task under top weight, but Paul Nicholls rates him a possible Champion Chase contender and the Ditcheat trainer has won the race four times in the past decade.

Joe Tizzard has lifted the last two renewals and relies on JPR One, last year’s winner, who looks to have been aimed at this again and should be plenty fit for the task.

Wednesday Racing

I’ve taken a quick peek at this afternoon’s Kempton card and its possible I might have a bet or two. .

5:00 – Longlai – A dual course winner for his previous trainer, Longlai bounced back from a couple of poor turf runs when finishing a running on 2¼-length 7th of 14 over C&D last month. A mile might suit him better than seven furlongs, but he’s now 4lb below his last winning mark. He’s handicapped to go close.

5:30 – Carbine Harvester – Has run poorly on two turf starts since returning from a gelding operation, but all four of his wins have come on the all-weather. He’s just 3lb higher than when making all over this C&D in April, and a better effort looks possible in a race that may not be strongly run.

6:30 – Safe And Sound – The Gosden yard landed a double here on Monday and could have another with Safe And Sound. The well-bred filly still looked green when finishing 1 ¾ length fifth over C&D on handicap debut 23 days ago. She was doing her best work late on, and while bred for further, a mark of 68 looks workable.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John