Small Fields, Big Questions

Hi all,

It’s the first of two days’ racing at Ascot. Ascot aside, the rest of Thursday’s action is low key. Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of the action from Ascot.

Betting Lab

Before looking at today’s Ascot action, a quick look at some trainers with good records in handicap chases when their horses are having their second run of the season.

Here are the rules:

We’re looking at:

Handicap chases

November and December

Horses having their second run of the season

Last run between 6 and 45 days ago.

Here are some notable trainers:

Granted, we’re dealing with small samples. However, several trainers stand out: Henry Daly, Venetia Williams and Warren Greatrex.  The latter had two horses last week Margaret's Legacy & Herakles Westwood who ran well on their seasonal returns and will be of interest if racing in the next 45 days.

It’s good to see the handicap hurdle method I highlighted here last week proving popular. Frankly, it doesn’t surprise me. It’s a quick, no-nonsense way to narrow the field and find runners that are fit, in form and proven where it matters. It was a case of going back to basics. Sometimes the best angles are the simplest, and this one falls into that category.

As I mentioned previously, I’m now working on refining a similar approach for handicap chases. It’s early days, although there are promising signs—last Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup being a good example, with the method highlighting the first two home. That said, I’m not convinced it’s ready to go live just yet. I’ll keep monitoring it, and rest assured you’ll be the first to read about it.

National Hunt Non-Handicap Class 1 Races:  The Power of the Front Two

For me, it’s even simpler to draw up a shortlist for Class 1 non-handicap NH races. Just focus on the first two, or at most three, in the betting.

Yes, winners do occasionally come from outside that group — but most don’t.

I know it’s boring, but you need to be fishing in pools were most of the winners are to be found.

Delving into Horseracebase and checking all Class 1 National Hunt races since the start of 2022, 81% of winners came from the first three in the betting.

Here’s how that breaks down by market position:

Compare those results with horses priced outside the first three and the difference is clear.

The first three in the betting are the prime candidates for the winner’s enclosure. You can apply extra filters, just like with the handicap hurdles, but I don’t think you need to in this case.

You clearly can’t back them blind. However, as with the handicap hurdle method, you’re zeroing in on a small, targeted group of runners for closer form study. It keeps the process simple and focused.

You might look at the form and decide the front two or three in the betting aren’t bets. If that’s the case, move on to another race. That’s discipline. You don’t have to bet.

As with anything in this game, you must stick with the process. Don’t jump onto something else just because you haven’t found winners in the early days. Again, that’s where our old friend discipline re-enters the conversation.

Friday Preview – Small Fields, Big Questions at Ascot

Ascot

Just 41 runners have been declared for Ascot’s seven races. They didn’t have as much rain as other courses in the last week, and the ground was described as good to soft, good in places on Wednesday, but even so the turnout is disappointing.

The Join Ladbrokes Bet £5 Get £30 Handicap Chase (2:00) is the best race on the card. Only five runners, but it’s competitive enough.

Your Darling won this in 2022 and 2023 on his seasonal return and now reappears after a 544-day layoff. He won’t lack fitness, but the question is: how much ability does he still retain?

Neon Moon was a shade disappointing when only 5th of 12 here (3m) on his return to action. He drops back to 2m5f. Not the most consistent, but talented to win this on a going day.

Lord Baddesley relished good ground when making all to win at Newbury 15 days ago. He’s up 7lb and his profile doesn’t scream follow-up winner, but this is his second run since wind surgery, so that procedure may have made a big difference to the 10yo.

When the Method Gets Tested

The Ascot Partners Handicap Hurdle (2:35) brings together several in winning form. Fortune De Mer, Manuelito and Poet Laureate are all last-time-out winners who ran within the last 34 days. They tick all the boxes.

Then there’s the potential fly in the ointment – Trustintimes. He’s 3 from 3 in 2025: a Kempton bumper and two novice hurdles at Uttoxeter. All three wins have come on good ground, but he’s been off 160 days. That said, he did win his bumper off a 100-day layoff so he can go fresh. Harry Fry is 5 from 19 (+8.63) with his hurdlers at Ascot, which strengthens the case.

It's an interesting race to use the handicap hurdle method because Trustintimes would be discarded on days since run.

Fortune De Mer ticks the right boxes and is a worthy favourite on handicap debut but 11/8 looks short.  Poet Laureate another handicap debutant is more attractively priced at around 8/1. Trustintimes has been weak in the overnight betting and it will be interesting to see how he fares when in the pre-race market.

The Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed In Racing Handicap Chase (3:10)

The second three-mile handicap chase on the card. This one’s a Class 4 contest.

Vision De Maine won his first two starts last season with good in the going description.. The drop back to three miles on seasonal return looks a plus and a mark of 109 remains fair. Cobden booked for a yard in the winners.

Awaythelad, trained by Ben Pauling, could be the answer. He’s a triple hurdle winner but hasn’t looked a natural chaser in two starts over fences. He may well have needed his seasonal return when pulling up at Cheltenham last month. Pauling is 4 from 15 (+5.99) with handicap chasers at Ascot in the last five years, so the yard’s stats offer plenty of encouragement.

Montregard bounced back to winning form in a first-time visor when winning at Worcester in May. If the headgear continues to work, he’s a big contender from 6lb higher.

Friday Selection:

Ascot (3:10)

Vision De Maine

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John