Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.
It’s the final weekend of major racing before the Christmas rush. Ascot takes centre stage. The highlights are the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2:25) and two Premier Handicaps. The Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3:35), worth £71,188 to the winner, and the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3:00), with £56,950 on offer.
Ascot provides the perfect appetiser for the festive period and the busiest phase of the jumps season. ITV Racing also head to Haydock, where the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:05) is the feature.
Ascot Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Looking at the trends since 2008, the data covers 15 winners from 237 runners. There are several angles of interest, but two stand out. Hurdles experience. And the percentage of rivals beaten last time out.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners met the core trends.
The sole exception was Not So Sleepy in 2020. He failed the final two after unseating in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his previous start.
Additional trends
Hurdle wins: Horses with two or three hurdle wins account for 13 of the 15 winners. Those outside that bracket are just 2 from 81.
Last racecourse: Ten winners ran at Cheltenham, Ascot or Newbury last time. Five emerged from Cheltenham’s Greatwood Hurdle.
Weight: Top weights are 0 from 15. However, runners within 7lb of the top weight have produced eight winners from 52. However, if top weight Alexei runs there won’t be many within 7lb of him.
Last-time-out placing: Horses that finished second last time are 0 from 47.
Contenders
Sixteen were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
Alexei heads the market after landing the Greatwood Hurdle. He’s progressing quickly and had previously won a C&D handicap. He could instead head to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle. If he runs here, he’ll shoulder top weight. Still, if he’s a genuine Champion Hurdle horse, that won’t anchor him.
Mondo Man brings smart Flat form from France, including strong Royal Ascot and French Derby efforts. He was highly tried over hurdles last season, finishing third to Lulamba on debut. He shaped well on his return when runner-up at Lingfield 23 days ago. He’s open to improvement on handicap debut.
Fiercely Proud, last year’s winner, bids to defend his crown. He finished a 13½-length fifth in the Greatwood on his return and is now 13lb better off with the winner. He fits the trends well and although he’s 7lb higher than 12 months ago, looks a serious player again.
Wilful improved markedly last spring, winning at Ayr and finishing runner-up in a valuable Punchestown Festival handicap. He returned with a career-best RPR when third behind Celtic Dino and Alexei. He receives 20lb from Alexei here, which gives him a big chance. Soft ground would be the concern.
Helnwein has finished runner-up in two valuable two-mile handicaps. Second in the Swinton. Second to Alexei in the Greatwood. That runner-up stat is a worry, but Alan King has won this race twice before, which is a plus.
Indeevar Bleu also arrives off a runner-up effort last time. Aside from that, he ticks most of the boxes. Softer ground would strengthen his case further, as would a strong stamina test. His yard won this in 2017.
Wednesday Newbury Preview
Occasionally, more than one horse from my tracker turns up in the same race. That’s the case today at Newbury.
In the handicap chase (1:58), both Mighty Bandit and Highland’s Legacy line up. I’d hoped the latter might step up beyond an extended two miles, but decent ground suits. His ¾-length second to Mambonumberfive reads well. The form has been franked since. The winner scored again, while the third, Glengouly, landed the big handicap at Cheltenham last Saturday.
Mighty Bandit finished two lengths behind Mambonumberfive on chase debut over C&D 19 days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that effort, which looks fair. The key now is progression. If he builds on that promise, he’s the one to beat.
Later on the card, Fine Casting has solid claims in the handicap chase (2:33). The 8yo got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences when winning at Bangor on his seasonal return. A 6lb rise looks workable. However, he’ll need to be in the same form. That’s not guaranteed unless there’s ease in the ground. Walking On Air returns for Faye Bramley over what is probably an inadequate 2m4f. He might well have won the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3m) at Doncaster in January but for falling at the last. That race could well be the target again so he’s one to keep an eye for the future.
Tomorrow I’ll be focusing on Saturday’s Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase which is the other Premier Handicap on Ascot’s card.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John