Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s big handicap chase, the Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster. Plus, there's some Kempton pointers.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
This weekend’s standout action comes from Cheltenham, where it’s Trials Day, and Doncaster, home of the Great Yorkshire Chase.
Trials Day is Cheltenham’s final meeting before the Festival, so the excitement is palpable. It’s an eight-race card and the undoubted highlight could be a clash between Sir Gino and The New Lion in the Unibet International Hurdle (3:00). Willie Mullins could also send over Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros. If the principals line up, it has the makings of one of the races of the season.
Other stars may include Betfair Chase winner Grey Dawning, who is a warm favourite for the Grade 2 Betfair Cotswold Chase (2:25). Just four were entered on Monday, including last year’s winner L’Homme Presse and Irish challenger Spillane’s Tower, who bids to get his career back on track.
The Grade 2 Pertemps Network Cleeve Hurdle (3:35) sees Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle winner Impose Toi put his Stayers’ Hurdle credentials on the line. Ten were entered on Monday. Possible rivals include French raider Theleme, a five-time Grade 1 winner not seen since November 2023, and improving C&D scorer Ma Shantou, who could step out of handicap company.
For those who prefer their valuable handicap chases, Doncaster is the place to be. The Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Chase (2:05) had thirteen runners left at Monday’s final stage. Grand Geste and Deep Cave were vying for ante-post favouritism on Tuesday morning.
You can read my full preview of the race below.
ITV Racing will be showing five races live from Cheltenham and a three from Doncaster on Saturday.
Doncaster – Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m
Let’s begin with a look at the ten-year trends. These cover ten winners from 136 runners, but this is a race where patterns appear to have shifted. Trends that pointed to all nine winners between 2009 and 2021 have failed to do so in the past four years, with just one qualifier placing.
Trends takeaways:
Odds: 16/1+ — 4 winners from 51 runners (+65), 10 places
Horses sent off 15/2 or shorter are 0 from 28 (5 places, Exp/Wins 4.8).
Worth bearing in mind if you fancy Grand Geste or Deep Cave.
Headgear (blinkers/cheekpieces): 5 winners from 45 (+75), 9 places.
Wins at the distance (1–2): 7 winners from 55 (+51), 15 places.
Last-time-out placing (2nd–4th): 7 winners from 58 (+56), 17 places.
Weight (10-9 to 11-2): 6 winners from 45 (+84), A/E 1.53
Last race distance (3m1½f+): 0 winners from 30, 5 places.
Last race track (Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Newbury): 1 winner from 69 runners (12 places, Exp/Wins 6.81).
That final stat is especially intriguing, as only four of the thirteen entries didn’t run at one of those tracks last time.
Contenders
Grand Geste is an improving handicap chaser after landing the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. A 10lb rise demands more, but he’s had just three starts over fences and remains open to improvement. The right favourite.
Deep Cave is two from two over fences for Christian Williams and won the Howden Silver Cup at Ascot before Christmas. A 2lb rise looks fair and he could still be better to come as a staying chaser. Likely to be ridden patiently. Trainer excels with staying handicap chasers.
Docpickedme won this race last year from 2lb lower and was a game C&D winner here last month. He always commands respect at Doncaster, where he’s three from five.
Walking On Air may have been unlucky last year, falling at the last when holding every chance. Now with new connections, his seasonal return at Newbury (2m4½f) looked a prep. There’s little between him and Docpickedme at the revised weights.
New Order arrives in good form after placing on his last two starts, including a close third to Herakles Westwood at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He jumped well from the front and the slight drop in trip should suit. I can see him going well.
Hyland bounced back when fourth to Deep Cave in the Silver Cup. He gets a 2lb pull and the yard is in form, but he probably wants good ground.
Joyeux Machin shaped better when fourth to Docpickedme here last time. That was his first run over fences for Dan Skelton. He may be well handicapped, but the losing run is a concern. Headgear could help.
Can Dartmoor Pirate Plunder Doncaster Treasure?
Finally, Dartmoor Pirate got off the mark at the third attempt over fences at Lingfield last month. A 7lb rise looks fair as the step up to 3m could unlock further improvement. The trainer had the runner-up in this race two years ago.
The 16/1 available with Bet365 & William Hill makes him a tempting proposition, though he does hold two other entries on Saturday so may not even run. I might end up getting my fingers burnt but I’ve taken a chance that he will rock up here.
Wednesday Racing
It’s moderate fare on Wednesday, with Kempton’s evening card providing the best of the action. Here’s some pointers for the final four races on the card.
Kempton
6:30 – Handicap (Class 4) – 1m
Billy Mill bounced back to form when winning here over 7f fourteen days ago. He’s a previous winner at the track over this trip, so the step up to a mile holds no fears. He’s 5lb higher but remains well treated on old form. He can get the better of High On Hope, who won at Chelmsford last time.
7:00 – Handicap (Class 4) – 1m
Fight Your Corner improved for the step up to a mile when landing a Southwell novice last month. He’s open to further progress on handicap debut. Midnight’s Dream has been well below form on three starts since returning from a break. He’s back again following another short absence, with first-time blinkers and the booking of Oisin Murphy suggesting intent. If they spark a revival, he’s handicapped to be competitive. Signcastle City was a two-length runner-up in a similar handicap here over 7f in September from 7lb higher but needs to bounce back.
7:30 – Handicap (Class 4) – 1m3f
Londoner returns from a short break after a disappointing run at Chelmsford. Prior to that he finished a neck second of twelve in the final of this series. He doesn’t win often, but the cheekpieces return and he drops back in class. He has claims. Umbria disappointed on his return from a short break at Southwell twenty days ago. A previous C&D winner, he’s well treated on the best of last year’s form.
8:00 – Handicap (Class 6) – 1m4f
Oisin Murphy stays on for the finale to ride Maxwellcan. The 3yo was well backed when sent off 11/8 favourite on his AW/nursery debut at Newcastle over a mile. He’s been gelded since and now steps up four furlongs in trip. He could easily leave his previous form behind. Von Dutch has looked modest on three starts and that reflected in his mark of 61. The step up to 1m4f could suit on handicap debut and he’s got good claims for a yard 2-5 in the past 14 days.
Tomorrow’s column will focus on a cracking card at Gowran Park where the feature race is the valuable Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John