Hi all,
Five races are live on ITV from Newbury and three from Warwick on Saturday afternoon.
The day’s most valuable race is the William Hill Hurdle (3:20), with £87,219 to the winner. It’s a race with serious history formerly the Betfair Hurdle, the Gold Trophy, and for older readers, the Schweppes.
Under its previous sponsorships, particularly the Schweppes, the race had a vibrant ante-post market and plenty of famous gambles were landed. Today’s renewal is a poor imitation of the old Schweppes, or even the Gold Trophy, from an ante-post perspective. Still, it looks a competitive race.
More rain was forecast, so we could be looking at heavy ground. Do you side with proven mudlarks like Milldam and Go Dante, or the progressive types potentially well ahead of their marks horses like Let It Rain and All In You?
Thankfully Newbury races as today’s column focuses on Newbury.
Newbury
The first four races on ITV have short- priced favourites and plenty of punters will be putting them in multiples. Of the four Sober Glory in the first looks the best value.
1:00 – Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m½f
Sober Glory, an impressive winner over C&D last month, sets the form standard. The ground will be softer than last time, but he should handle it. He’s the one to beat.
Fantasy World, a useful staying handicapper for Andrew Balding, is an interesting hurdle debutant for Nicky Henderson. The 4yo was at his best on easy ground on the Flat, so shouldn’t be fazed by conditions. If he’s schooled well, he’s a serious contender.
1:35 – Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 3m½f
This looked an interesting race, but two of my fancies weren’t declared on Thursday.
A Pai De Nom was backed into favouritism on his hat-trick bid in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton last time. He travelled that day like he remains a well-handicapped horse and can win more races. He handles heavy ground, but on pedigree he’s not guaranteed to stay 3m in very testing conditions. If he stays, he wins.
Might I is the outsider of the nine runners but could outrun big odds. He goes well on heavy ground and, while he hasn’t proved he stays 3m on three previous attempts for his former yard, his pedigree suggests he should. He finished last on stable debut in July and returns from a 215-day layoff, but he has gone well fresh before.
2:10 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m7½f
No Jango Baie due to testing ground means just four runners.
Haiti Couleurs heads the betting after his impressive Welsh National win under top weight. He won the Irish National last season with heavy in the going description, so conditions hold no fears. He’s the one to beat.
L'Homme Presse ran well when a ¾-length second to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase 14 days ago. He’s 5lb higher than the favourite on official ratings but gives him 2lb here. While the 11yo is the best horse on ratings, I’ll be disappointed if Haiti Couleurs doesn’t win and confirm himself as a genuine Gold Cup contender.
2:45 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m½f
Another race with a short-priced favourite.
Arkle favourite Lulamba made it 2-2 over fences when winning the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown. This will be the softest ground he’s faced since joining Nicky Henderson, but he won on heavy over hurdles in France. Henderson won this with Sprinter Sacre and Altior in their novice seasons before they landed the Arkle. Barring mishap, he wins and 8/11 isn’t a bad price.
Libberty Hunter was runner-up in last year’s race. He handles testing ground and Sean Bowen is an interesting booking. He looks one for the forecast but can only win if Lulamba fails to complete.
Meetmebythesea is unbeaten in two chase starts and is a nice prospect, but this may be a big ask. He’s suited by soft/heavy ground but looks another fighting for second.
3:20 – William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m½f
I previewed the race in Thursday’s column which you can read here.
One horse I didn’t mention in that preview was Poet Laureate he was well beaten by Hot Fuss at Windsor last time. Prior to that, he looked a progressive novice. If that run was an aberration, he has each-way claims for a yard that won this race in 2023.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John