Hi all,
In yesterday’s column I highlighted how you can make money from backing three horses in an eight-runner race.
This is what I wrote:
“It might give some readers heart failure to suggest backing three horses in an eight-runner race. Now I’ve written this before the bookies have priced up the race, but if the prices allow, it could pay to side with all three and still come out in front.”
I identified Aurigny Mill, Welsh Charger and Constellation Walk for a handicap hurdle at Taunton.
The first-named won at 14/1 after an enterprising ride from Harry Kimber. So, a good profit landed and that was with a non-runner taking to the field down to seven.
On to Friday’s action.
There’s an interesting card at Kelso this afternoon and competitive racing at Meydan, where the highlight is an 80–100 handicap (3:50) worth £30,364 to the winner.
Inside today’s main piece, I’ve looked at a couple of the Kelso handicaps.
Kelso
3:00 – Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m7½f
Just six runners, but an intriguing contest. All bar two are not in the veteran category.
Empire Steel returned from a 13-month absence with an encouraging fourth at Musselburgh 13 days ago. He loves Kelso (form figures 112131) and is lightly raced since winning this race two years ago. He also won it in 2022, though both renewals were then over an extended 2m5f. Handicapped to go close if this doesn’t come too quick.
Elvis Mail is another course specialist (6-14) and, like Empire Steel, is a 12yo. He hasn’t been at his best on either start this season but is now 4lb below his last winning mark. He can’t be discounted here despite advancing years.
King Of Answers won a C&D handicap two starts back but looked in need of further when fourth of five at Windsor last time. Unlike the two veterans, he’s only had three starts over fences and first-time cheekpieces are applied. He has claims, but yard form is a concern.
Bill Baxter is 2 from 2 at Kelso, both wins over shorter, although he does stay three miles. He disappointed at Market Rasen last time and returns from wind surgery. Not ruled out, but he looks handicapped to the hilt.
Maximilian, a latecomer to fences, has shaped well enough on his first two chase starts to think he can be competitive on handicap debut. That said, he didn’t appear to relish heavy ground at Ayr last time.
Dare To Shout, normally reliable, ran as if something was amiss when pulling up in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in December. Back from a 76-day break, but he’s gone well fresh before. Down to his last winning mark and can win this if on song.
3:35 – Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m5½f
Again, six runners and again, a race where you can make a case for all of them.
Queensbury Boy has shaped well on three starts over fences and looks a winner waiting to happen. Runner-up at Windsor (3m½f) last time, this drop in trip could suit on soft ground. Likely pace angle and a big player.
Milcree returned from a 21-month absence to win on chase debut at Ayr last month. Up 8lb, but open to further progress and capable of following up.
Young Jack, a winner here over hurdles and runner-up on chase debut, bounced back from a lesser run behind Milcree when a head second at Newcastle (2m7½f) 17 days ago. He looked in need of further there, but first-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.
Moon Phases was a good second here on chase debut and went one better at Newcastle (2m4f) last month. A 3lb rise looks workable given he’s still improving over fences. The only concern is current stable form.
The Betting Framework
There are three questions every punter must answer before placing a bet:
Does the horse have the ability to win a race of this type?
Are the circumstances right for that ability to be shown today?
Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?
If the answer is Yes to all three, you’ve found a horse you can invest in.
If you don’t have an unequivocal Yes to all three, then that horse shouldn’t be a bet at any price.
But even that’s not the hardest part.
Whether you should bet depends on the final imponderable: value.
Value is subjective. I might think Horse A is value at 3/1. Another punter might want 6/1. Both can be right.
I have a couple of strong fancies at Meydan, and if you want those plus my selections for the next 30 days you can get them here.
In Saturday’s column, I’ll be looking at the best of the ITV action at Ascot.
Good luck with your Friday bets,
John