Good morning all,
Late back from Newmarket last night thanks to motorway closures and the like, so it's with a slightly sleep-deprived body I haul myself up to Doncaster today. It'll be another busy day, and I always think the Donny crowd are a good punting crowd, even on event days like this. Perhaps it's because the lads and lasses there are brought up in households that teach their kids the important things when they're young, like never betting a round robin – have a trixie with bigger singles instead – so hopefully I'll be busy from start to finish today.
Newmarket was as expected – dreadful business at the beginning (we took £41 on the first race) but had built up by the time the last came around. Sadly, every man, woman and child wanted to be Frankie in his efforts to ride his 3000th winner in that race and he duly obliged, with the other jockeys helpfully letting Frankie set his own steady fractions to the cause. We were paying out for 15 minutes after the race, along with just about every other bookmaker on the track! Worse, it beat yesterday's selection, Palmerston, by half a length, just rubbing salt into the wounds….
So to today's racing. I have taken a look at a couple of races from Market Rasen, on their Rasen Rocks night (Jess Glynne again!)
Market Rasen
6.10 – 2m4f Novice Hurdle
At this morning's prices, I'm tempted to have a small e/w go at Gran Paradiso as it must be slight odds-on that at least one of the front two, Birch Hill or Hassle, will blow out and there's a small chance they both will. It's not as if Gran Paradiso ran poorly on his hurdles debut, either, and if he has learnt from that and his jumping technique has improved a bit, he can get involved.
Birch Hill was soon got rid of by Seven Barrows, and although he won on his debut for Sophie Leech it was hardly proof positive he's back on his game, and the form took a right knock this week when the second home, Winning Ticket, was stuffed out of sight at Newton Abbot (and was made favourite). Hassle is harder to knock, but he's not averse to throwing a bad one in and can get warm in the preliminaries. Throw in the fact Dr Newland's last four have run poorly as well, and it makes him look an unattractive betting proposition as well.
So at 11-1 I'm having a small e/w bet on the Micky Hammond horse, and pray all 5 line up….
7.45 – Handicap Hurdle (2m7f)
Bourne has bounced back to form with wins in his last two starts, but he's a character and will happily turn it in if things start to get tough. Don't take my word for that – here's the quote from McCain after that Bangor win last time – “Bourne is a character and is a pleasure to have around. We were delighted with his last win, never mind getting two, but as soon as it becomes tougher and he has to try, that will be it”.
So with that, it may pay to look elsewhere, and Lowcarr Motion fits the bill. A good effort in cheekpieces in better grade than this at Uttoxeter last time suggests he's right back in form, and for me, I'd have the front two a lot closer in the market.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.