Good morning all,
Seems a bit strange to be switching codes again, especially with Cheltenham just around the corner, but Southwell's A/W season starts today and I hope to be attending as many meetings as possible. It's something I will be covering in a bit of depth here over the Winter, as there's definitely some punter advantages from betting on the Fibresand if you're careful. Draw biases, sire stats and run styles really come to the fore here, and that, combined with actually being at the track and seeing the condition of the horses can often narrow fields down to two or three pretty quickly.
Now, of course, I'm not there today as I'll be travelling to Cheltenham as soon as today's message is done, but my good friend Daren does notes for each Southwell meeting, often in the style of writing you get on a doctor's prescription. So I've tidied them up a bit for you and reproduced them – hope you can find some use out of his writings.
12.25
Top 3 in weights are all making Fibresand debut & all have poor strike rates overall, making this look a very weak race.
Davey Boy won at 50/1 here but has shown nothing since, only beating 3 horses in last 4 starts. Princess Peaches has won 1/17 with that victory coming in a dire 5 runner course maiden. Barista has been well btn both tries here & is 0/25 over 1 mile trip.
Selection has to be Limerick Lord. Won off a mark of 60 here in December and generally competitive off marks in high 50s in the summer. Admittedly has a poor strike rate of 2/30 but fairly consistent round here, and that counts for plenty in this race.
12.55
5 of these are making their Fibresand debuts.
Likely fav is Little Choosey, but I can't have her at all. She's 0/6 at swell, previously beaten off marks between 46–51 round here and now runs off mark in 60s for the 1st time in 3 yrs.
Swanaway is a 7 race maiden. Unnoticed is a maiden after 18 starts & now transfers from Cumani yard to Ollie Pears.
My tentative selection would be Stun Gun who at least acts round here. 3/16 strike rate.
1.55
Last season a big draw bias over 5f. Stalls 1-4 won 69%, and only 3/33 were hold-up horses.
So ideally a prom rnr drawn 1-4. Stall 1 11/33 strike rate and is +£300 to £10 stake blindly backing all from that stall.
King Crimson makes Fibresand debut but is a front runner so has to be the pick.
There's a possible play with stalls 1-4 in fcast/tricasts as they all can race prominently.
2.25
Stalls 1-6 87% winning over this trip. In double figure fields stalls 10+ 0 wins.
Stalls 1,2,4,6 are all making Fibresand debuts. Pavela (stall 3) is 9lb out of the handicap and Pulsating (stall 5) won a seller last time out and is still 2lb out of the handicap here.
Will need to go paddock & watch them go down before final selection from the above 4 stalls. Not a betting race at present.
3.55
Best advantage to those that race prominently here. Only 4 from 28 hold-up horses winners at this trip. Still a hard race to solve.
Selection today is Limerick Lord in the 12.25 to our A/W season off to a flyer.
Good luck with all your selections today,
David.
Have had a (tiny) bet, given the likely sps, on the CTC in the 155…will add some interest as I look for New Side Road to break well and spoil Daren’s stats from stall 8 (although that draw is 4/32 for + 22 pts according to Geegeez)
Paul
Does the last 3 count to the tricast?