Good morning all,
It's a beautiful day for a trip to Newmarket, which is where I'll be standing for the next couple of days. And thankfully (and for a change) the weather looks set fair for the whole bank holiday weekend. Southwell on Monday is also on the agenda, so there's plenty for me to look forward to.
York's not really happening for me yet, a few places but nothing to write home about so I'm hoping to give it the kickstart it needs today.
1.55 York – Skybet First Race Special Handicap (1m4f)
There’s one I am quite keen on here and that’s Mukkayham.
There’s not too much in the way of pace here and Mukkayham might be allowed his own way up front. He was a winner here three starts ago when making every yard of the running and staying on strongly, followed that up with another good win at Ripon and although he went up another 6lb after that, he still looked like he was on a workable mark when not beaten far at all at Ascot last time out. Back at a track he likes (placed here on two other occasions) he might still be able to defy this mark. Ground should be fine and I’m hopeful he can dictate this pace and make all.
It’s hard to knock the claims of Red Galileo too. He’s probably got claims to being a bit better than this class, and looked like he was right back to form when second to Gawdalpalin at Ascot last time out. On a good mark and should run well.
2.25 – Lonsdale Cup (2m½f)
High Jinx might have a crack at making all here, and I’ve no doubt that this is his Gold Cup, but I fear we might have had our fun with him earlier in the season and that was a poor effort at Goodwood last time. I’d love to see him go well, but it’s more in hope than anything.
There has to be a question mark over Dartmouth at the trip, and a similar comment has to apply to Dai Harraild as well. I’m happy to give them both the swerve.
We’re starting to get to the time of the year that Sheikhzayadroad might start to fire and although Doncaster next month is probably his main target, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go better here. He is a course winner (back in 2014) so handles the track, the ground should be spot on and when all’s said and done he is the joint top-rated here. Looks the value in the race at around 8-1 and he’ll be my bet.
I get the case for Thomas Hobson and this drop back to 2m might be ideal for him, but make no mistake, this is his hardest task this season and I don’t think he represents much in the way of value.
3.00 – City Of York (7f)
6-1 the field and wide open.
Pace most likely to come from the high numbers, although Gordon Lord Byron from stall 3 is also likely to be prominent.
From stall 14, Jallota makes some e/w appeal. He needs a decent pace to chase, which he should get with a few pacemakers around him, likes it at York (win and 3 places from 5 attempts here) and is in form after outrunning his 100-1 odds at Goodwood last time, finishing a very respectable eighth in the Lennox. If Jamie Spencer times his effort right, I’d be hopeful he can go close on ground that should be ideal. (update, 5 places Skybet, which looks a bit of a gift).
Of those likely to push on early, Rusumaat makes the most appeal. He was very game in winning at Newbury on soft ground last time and although he has won at a mile this year, I believe he’s just as happy at 7f (three runs at the trip, a win and two seconds) and he’s the one that can’t be allowed too much rope on the front end.
3.35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (5f)
One of the highlights in the sprinting calendar and this looks a cracker.
Battash has been absolutely wonderful to watch this year. His progression from handicaps last year to genuine claims of being a G1 sprinter this year is nothing short of breathtaking and his turn of foot at the end of fast-run races is a joy to behold. Even grizzled old sods like me that love nothing more than a 3m chase in the mud at Towcester have been able to enjoy him this year. I think he wins again here, I really do – all tracks and ground seem to come alike, another admirable trait – and then I hope he takes them to pieces in the Prix De L’Abbaye.
He’s got Lady Aurelia to beat and although she’s quick, we saw that in the Kings Stand, I think that Battash hasn’t finished improving yet and hopefully he can have her measure in the final furlong.
The problem with having an e/w bet is that, if you believe these two are head and shoulders above the rest and will finish 1-2, then you’ve got ten others playing for one place. That doesn’t make much appeal and I’ll just be happy to watch this race rather than have a bet.
Today's selection – Sheikhzayadroad 2.25 York
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.