Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s action. Plus, I preview this afternoon’s Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury. I said on Monday that the racing improves as the week goes on and today is proof of that.
Weekend Weather Watch
I have been feverishly checking the weather apps for the weekend. A thundery breakdown was forecast for Saturday at Haydock but that seems to be delayed until Sunday now. It’s also set be mostly hot and sunny at Ascot so we can expect the going to be quick at both courses. Mind you have no fears both Clerks will turn the taps on.
Across the Irish Sea its more uncertain forecast for Irish Champions weekend. There could be some heavy thundery showers around from Thursday with the possibility of 10mm on Saturday night at the Curragh. So, it going to be a case of watch this space, weather wise when it comes to the Irish racing.
Looking Ahead To the Weekend – Part 2
There’s so much top quality action this weekend, that it’s hard to know where to start my normal big race previews. The lovely weather hasn’t helped my form study either and I haven’t really started looking at Saturday’s races in detail yet. I thought I would wait until Thursday. That means I’m not going today any previews here. Instead, I have few horses that could be worth noting this weekend.
Shaquille looks nailed on for Haydock Group 1 sprint
I’m struggling to see who beats Shaquille on quick ground in Saturday’s Betfair Sprint Cup. The 3-year-old is a best priced 5/6 and although I don’t back under evens his odds reflect his true chance.
It’s not the strongest renewal of the race. Take out the favourite and there’s plenty in with each way claims. A dry week and a drop back to 6f wouldn’t suit Kinross. That leaves for me Regional and Khadeem.
Regional has been progressive this season and ran another good race in defeat when a 2 ¼ length 5th of 16 in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York last time. He’s well suited to quick ground and looks worth a return to 6f. He’s a best priced 16/1 at the time of writing but as you saw in yesterday’s column horses returned 12/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 75 runners, 7 placed.
The same odds comment applies to Khadeem who is a best priced 25/1 in the ante post betting. The 7-year-old has a better chance than his odds suggest. He got the quick ground and a strong pace he needs when winning the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He didn’t have his ground, or the race run to suit when a 3 ½ length 5th of 8 to Shaquille in the July Cup and was a 3 ½ length 7th of 16 in the Nunthorpe Stakes last time. Has a length to find with Regional on his York form. However, a strongly run 6f will suit the 7-year-old.
Shaquille is the best horse in the race and if he runs to his July Cup winning form he wins.
Both Regional & Khadeem have place claims. Of that pair I do think Khadeem is overpriced at 25/1. Ok he’s not the most consistent but on a going day he would outrun those odds.
Several of my recent eyecatchers could run this weekend:
Onesto is a best priced 7/1 for Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes (3:20). He was a ½ length runner-up in last years race and has a great chance of going one place better this year. The 4-year-old ran a cracker on his belated seasonal reappearance when a 3 ½ length 4th of 11 to Inspiral in the Group 1 Jacques le Marois (1m) over an inadequate trip a Deauville last month.
Fresh caught my eye at York over 6f last time and is ante post favourite (6/1) for the bet365 Handicap (2:35) at Ascot. The 6-year-old won Saturday’s 7f contest 12 months ago and he’s 2lb lower this time around.
In the same race Bless Him could take his place in the line-up. The 9-year-old runs Ascot’s straight track very well and he’s going to get his favoured quick ground. I’m surprised he’s still available at 14/1 he will be shorter on the day on his favoured ground.
I like Fresh but Bless him looks the value at the time of writing.
Thursday Preview
The Racing League heads to Wolverhampton this evening for its penultimate meeting of 2023.
Haydock's three-day Sprint Cup meeting gets under way this afternoon and there’s Group 3 action at Salisbury with the Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (3.40).
Salisbury
3:40 – Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Fourteen juvenile filles are set to line-up for the Salisbury feature.
Miaharris made it 2-2 when winning a Newbury Listed race (5f) last month. There’s more progress to come from the Owen Burrows trained filly who should be fully effective at 6f. The one to beat f stepping up on her Newbury performance which seems more than likely.
Symbology a winner at York on racecourse debut has improved on two subsequent starts In Group company including when a length 3rd of 8 to Relief Rally in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at the Ebor Festival. Likely to be bang there once more.
The biggest rival to Miaharris could turn out to be Soprano. The daughter of Starspangledbanner won on racecourse debut at Newmarket in May. And she improved again when a 2 length 3rd of 17 in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Hasn’t really built on her Royal Ascot form on two subsequent starts. However, it was soft ground at Sandown (7f) two starts back and she was to keen when 2nd of 8 in the Group 3 Solera Stakes (7f). The drop back to a strongly run 6f should suit provided stall 12 isn't an inconveniance.
It's worth noting that horses drawn 12 & higher are 0 winners from 14 bets, 3 placed in the race since 2008. Mind you Miaharris is drawn out widest in 15 and Symbology races out of stall 11.
Verdict: Despite her high draw likely favourite Miaharris is the one to beat but I’m giving Soprano one more chance dropped back in trip.
Soprano – 5/1 @ Coral.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John