Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to the Aintree Grand National with some meeting stats and a brief look ahead to Saturday’s big race.
Aintree Weather Watch
There was some heavy rain in the Liverpool area on Tuesday and plenty more is being forecast for Wednesday and Friday. Although National Day itself looks mostly dry. The weather app I consult is forecasting around 25mm of rain between now and the end of racing on Friday. That’s more than was being forecast on Sunday. Nature will hopefully do its work and we won’t have to rely on watering at Aintree this week.
It was good to soft, good in places on the Mildmay course on Tuesday morning and good to soft on the National course. With the rain they had on Tuesday that should have the eased the ground further and if Wednesday’s rain does arrive its should be much softer for day one card.
Randox Aintree Grand National Festival
Looking at the stats for the meeting since 2017 which contain 105 winners from 1566 runners 321 placed.
Here’s a few general meeting stats:
Horses who ran at the Cheltenham Festival on their previous start are – 54 winners from 515 runners -77.02, 156 placed.
Favourites are – 31 winners from 114 runners -13.57, 68 placed 60%.
Last time Out Placing: 1st or 2nd – 57 winners from 628 runners -72.57 149 placed.
Now switching to those ‘creatures of habit’ the trainers. Who are the trainers who have done well at the meeting in the past five years.
A couple of takeaways….
In all honesty not a huge amount to be gleaned from those stats.
Looking at horses who ran at the Cheltenham Festival. The most promising angle looks to be focus on those runners 9/2 or less and finished first or second in a Grade 1 race last time.
Favourite backers may find the following angle of interest.
Just over half of the winning favourites at the meeting had run finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest on their previous start.
Aintree Festival Trainers
Looking at horseracebase. Here are top performing trainers with two plus winners at the meeting.
A few takeaways…
Nicky Henderson has had the highest number of winners with 14 with Paul Nicholls in second with 10.
Thirteen of the fourteen Henderson winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival on their previous start and twelve of them were returned 5/1 & under.
You won’t make much money backing his qualifiers, but he’s had two winners each year since 2017.
Looking at the Paul Nicholls stats – Nine of his ten winners we’re returned 11/1 or less and didn’t run at the Cheltenham Festival last time.
Since 2017, Gordon Elliott has targeted the meeting more successfully than Willie Mullins. Especially if you include the two Denise Foster winners as part of the Elliott total. Digging a bit deeper into the Elliott winners.
Seven of Elliott’s winners came in hurdle races, and I fancy he’s hurdle runners at the meeting will be worth considering once again this year.
Finally, Stuart Edmunds has a good record at the meeting given the size of his yard. Both his winners came in hurdle races with 2 winners from 6 runners +14, 4 placed 67% (+25.10).
Randox Aintree Grand National
The Grand National is the world's most famous horse race. The modifications to the big Aintree fences mean the race doesn’t offer the jumping test that it once did when the likes of Red Rum we’re winning the race in the 1970’s. That said it remains a great spectacle given the size of the field.
Personally, I wish many of the modifications hadn’t have happened. Sadly, though they had to take place. Without them there’s a good chance that race wouldn’t be taking take place with 40 runners or maybe not even happening at all.
The £1,000,000 in guaranteed prize money with £500,000 on offer to the winner makes it the most valuable jump race run in the world. Fifty runners were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation which means the race will see a maximum field declared. At one stage I feared that we might not see the 40 runners in this year’s contest. Thankfully for the race and the sport those fears have been allayed.
I’m not going through the 50 runners here. Why? Because I have a short list that contains just six runners. It must be my shortest list of contenders ever for the race.
Short List
Corach Rambler
Corach Rambler is 10lb well in after his win in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s a worthy favourite given how well in he is at the weights. I have had the 9-year-old as a Grand National contender since the start of the winter jumps campaign although I didn’t back him. He’s progressive and the only chink in his armour is his come-from-behind style of racing may not be suited to the race.
Delta Work
Delta Work was third to Nobel Yeats in last years race and he’s much better off at the weights with last year’s winner this time around. He defended his Cross Country Crown in game fashion at the Cheltenham Festival last time and looks set for another big run in Saturday’s race.
Aint That A Shame
Has developed into smart chaser winning one of his seven starts over the larger obstacles. The 7-year-old got off the mark when winning a Gowran Park novice chase last month. The runner-up there won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday, so the form looks decent. Prior to that he had finished a good 1 length 4th of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Capodanno
Is the most fascinating of the 50 entries and Willie Mullins thinks he could be a future Gold Cup contender. The 7-year-old has won two of his six start over fences. The latest of them coming in the Grade 1 Novice Chase (3m) at last season’s Punchestown Festival. He made a decent return to action when a 9 length 3rd of 4 to stablemate Janidil in a Grade 3 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park in February. That performance came over an inadequate 2m 4f. He’ll need to be a Gold Cup horse to win off a mark of 160 but like the trainer I think he could be.
Hill Sixteen
The biggest priced of the five on my shortlist. The 10-year-old is an old fashioned staying type. He already run well over the National fences finishing a nose 2nd of 21 to Snow Leopardess in the 2021 Becher Chase and was an encouraging 7th of 22 in this seasons race. Last of ten at Kelso on first start since wind surgery last month isn’t ideal. However, in his defence he lost shoe that day and that run was always going to be a prep for Saturday. He will be spot on fitness wise and will be plugging on when most of his rivals have given up.
Roi Mage
Roi Mage was bought by connections from France last season for this. He failed to get a run 12 months ago but has been trained for this race all season. A solid 1 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Longhouse Poet at Down Royal last month. He normally accurate jumping means he must be respected, and he looks on fair mark.
Wednesday Racing
On the eve of the Aintree there are flat cards at Nottingham and Catterick and a jumps fixture at Southwell. The Wednesday action concludes with an evening flat card at Gowran Park and on the all-weather fixture at Kempton.
Nottingham
The Listed Barry Hills Further Flight Stakes (3:55) the highlight of a seven race card at Nottingham. High class stayer Trueshan is set to make his seasonal return in the race which he won 12 months ago. A winner of the Group 2 British Champions Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. The 7-year-old must give weight away to all his six rivals on seasonal return. Despite that’s he the one to beat on his favoured soft ground.
Mojo Star has been seen since finishing a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Kyprios in the Ascot Gold Cup. He gets 7lb from Trueshan, is weighted to come out in top and should get close if fully tuned up on return to action.
Tashkhan is a useful stayer when getting soft ground and isn’t weighted out of this if returning at his best.
Buzz has been off the track since winning a Grade 2 over hurdles at Ascot in November 202. Prior to that he had won the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. He will need one or two falter to win but it will be interesting to see how he fares after such a long layoff.
Nottingham Punting Pointers:
Owen Burrows is 7 winners from 19 runners 37% +33.50 with the runners he sends to Nottingham in the past 5-years. Fair Wind (3:25) is his sole runner at Nottingham this afternoon. The 3-year-old shaped like she had ability on her racecourse debut over C&D 7-days ago.
Wednesday Selection
I could have gone with Trueshan in the Listed race (3:55) he won 12 months ago. However, I’m going with his stablemate Ravigil (4:25). The filly looked a work in progress on her four juvenile starts. And ended last season with a solid 2 ¾ length 3rd of 10 on nursery debut over C&D (soft) in October. She was doing her best work at the finish and shaped like further would suit. On a day when solid betting opportunities are few and far between, she’s a tentative selection.
Nottingham
4:25 – Ravigil.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John