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Ambiente Friendly Books Epsom Ticket

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at last week’s Classic Trials at Chester and Lingfield.  Plus, I previewed the feature race at Windsor this evening.

I trust your Saturday went better than mine. Following the excitement of Sunday’s 1000 Guineas Day, I turned my attention to the handicaps at Ascot and Haydock, but truth be told, I got them totally wrong.  I managed to find a good priced winner for Victor Value subscribers at Leopardstown on Sunday but it doesn’t make up for Saturday’s lamentable effort.

It’s frustrating when races don’t unfold as anticipated. However, horse racing serves as a reminder that success and failure are part of the same journey. It's important not to dwell too much on either outcome, as the sport continually teaches us resilience and the need to move forward.

Let’s begin at Chester with the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks.

Chester

Forest Fairy Shines in Cheshire Oaks Win

Wednesday’s Cheshire Oaks was won by the Ralph Beckett trained filly Forest Fairy. An impressive winner at Wolverhampton on her racecourse debut 13 weeks earlier Forest Fairy improved again and there was plenty to like about the way she stuck her head out to edge out Port Fairy close to home.  She’ll need to improve plenty to win an Oaks but she’s going the right way and deserves to take her place in the line-up.

Runner-up Port Fairy isn’t in the Oaks which probably sums up where she stands in the Aidan O’Brien pecking order.

Hidden Law Tragedy Takes Gloss Off Vase

In the Chester Vase Hidden Law produced an impressive burst of speed inside the final furlong to win. He would have been Derby favourite after that performance but sadly he broke down passing the line and was fatally injured.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Agenda, trained by Aidan O’Brien, was suited by the switch to front running tactics but was no match for the winner. The son of Galileo is going the right way but he’s not in the Derby and will probably head to Royal Ascot and the King Edward VII Stakes.

Agenda’s stablemate Grosvenor Square was sent off as the 7/4 favourite and finished third. He was conceding race fitness to the two who finished in front of him and wasn’t subjected to hard race when Ryan Moore realised, he had no chance to finish better than third. Grosvenor Square will come on for the run and I wouldn’t be surprised if he proves better than his stablemate.

Cadogan Place had beaten Hidden Law on his racecourse debut at Southwell but ran poorly here.  He’s a big horse and seemed ill at ease on this very sharp track. This wasn’t his true running, and he will surely get back on track on a more galloping track.

Chester Going

Before I finish my look back at Chester. It’s worth noting the times on Wednesday indicated good ground which matches the going description. On Thursday the official going description remained at good but on times it was good to firm. On Friday the going description was good to firm but on times it was firm bordering on very firm.

Lingfield Classic Trials Day

You Got To Me Claims Lingfield Oaks Trial

You Got To Me secured a victory in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, guided by an enterprising front-running ride from Hector Crouch, marking Ralph Beckett's fourth success in the race. Lingfield's turf track favours front runners, and You Got To Me's rivals struggled to close the gap. just fine. Despite challenges from stablemate Treasure (4th) and favourite Danielle (3rd) in the final furlong, You Got To Me kept finding to hold off that pair. The filly's aptitude for a sound surface and an undulating track suggests she’ll handle Epsom just fine. The question is she good enough to win a classic?

Rubies Are Red, trained by Aidan O'Brien, made a late surge in the straight, making up ten lengths in the final two furlongs. However, her effort fell short by half a length. I'm not sure she handled the track.

The winner made sure the race was a decent stamina test. It’s possible Danielle may not have stayed but she would have preferred softer ground. Her chance in the Oaks remains if underfoot conditions at Epsom favour her.

Treasure, on just her second start shaped with promise, should come on plenty for the run. Epsom isn't on her agenda though instead she's likely head to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale Stakes.

Rubies Are Red's improvement with distance and better ground was evident, though her difficulty with the track raises concerns for an Epsom bid, possibly leading connections to consider the Ribblesdale.

Ambiente Friendly Surges to Victory in Derby Trial

Ryan Moore set out to make the Derby Trial a stamina test aboard 6/4 favorite Illinois. Establishing a strong gallop from the outset, Illinois led until overtaken by eventual winner Ambiente Friendly 2 furlongs from the finish.

Ambiente Friendly surged ahead down the wide outside, displaying a powerful acceleration to secure victory. His adept handling of the track, affinity for quick ground, and strong finish make him a serious Derby contender. Indeed, I would go as far to say that’s the best performance we’ve seen from a 3-year-old so far this season.

At 10/1 odds with bet365 for Epsom, he offers value in what appears to be an open looking year. He would be a 7/2 chance if he was trained by Aidan O’Brien after Saturday’s performance.

Illinois was unable to match the winner's acceleration, but persevered to hold second place, finishing 4 ½ lengths behind the winner. He’s a big bull of a horse but looked awkward under pressure which could be down to not handling the track and may benefit for the application of cheekpieces.

NB The going at Lingfield was officially described as good, good to firm in places on the round course. However, on times it was good to firm all over.

Monday Racing

Killarney’s three day May meeting which got underway on Sunday continues with teatime card. The feature race is the Grade 3 BoyleSports An Riocht Chase (6:40).

In the feature race Gentleman De Mee, who was runner-up in the Champion Chase, takes a drop-in class, after unseating his rider at Aintree in his latest outing. Despite being the highest-rated horse in the race, his stamina over 2 miles and 4 furlongs remains uncertain.

French Dynamite, on the other hand, has no stamina concerns and returns to racing after a break since finishing tailed off behind Allaho at Thurles (bled) 113 days ago. Known for performing well fresh and favouring nice ground, he stands a chance if he can revive, especially betting 12lb from Gentleman De Mee.

In the 6:10 handicap hurdle.

Park Of Kings appears to have a strong chance to make amends for his recent misfortune at Punchestown. He was badly hampered by a faller two out the last day when holding every chance. The 6-year-old can quickly bounce back with the aid of first-time cheekpieces and with jockey Mark Walsh back in the saddle. Pitwood Road, who secured victory in a maiden hurdle at Market Rasen, poses a significant threat as she makes her handicap debut with potential for further improvement. Garrybello was a 2 ¾ length 4th of 16 in last year’s race, from 2lb higher. However, since arriving from France, he has yet to secure a victory, diminishing his appeal from a win perspective. Nonetheless, if he can replicate the form, he showed in last year’s he would have each way claims.

Moving to the 7:10 handicap chase.

Walk In The Dark, carrying top weight, showed promise on his second outing over fences at Tipperary and appears to be on a favourable mark for his handicap chase debut. Definiteadare, a previous winner over fences at Killarney, returns to action for the first time since falling here two out, closing at the time, 225-days ago. If fully tuned up, he’s a contender off the same mark.

Windsor

The best race this side of the Irish Sea is the Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap (6:35).

Indian Creak, a proven course specialist with an impressive record of 5 wins from 11 runs and 8 places over C&D, including a victory in this series final last August, commands respect despite less convincing performances in two starts this season.

Katey Kontent, displaying early promise as a juvenile with two victories before a commendable 6th place finish in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, ran well on four starts in handicap company last year, culminating in a career-best 2nd place at Salisbury. While she may some ease in the ground her past performances render her a contender if conditions suit.

Rhythm N Hooves, victorious in the prestigious Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot last season, returns to the track on good to firm ground for the first time since Ascot. Although not replicating the same level of form in subsequent outings, his return to favourable underfoot conditions suggests he could pose a significant threat on only his second start at 6 furlongs.

Leap Abroad looked particularly effect on testing ground when winning at Leicester 16 days ago. A 3lb rise means he remains on a competitive mark albeit he’ll likely face different ground this evening. If the rain arrives he's another to consider.

Monday Selection:

I was going to put up French Dynamite, in the Killarney feature race, as today’s free tip. However, having looked at the early prices I’m happy to throw a dart at Garrybello in the 6:10.

Killarney

6:10 – Garrybello – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying 4 places).

In Tuesday’s article there’ll be more future winners for the tracker.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John

7 thoughts on “Ambiente Friendly Books Epsom Ticket”

  1. I’m sorry, I don’t really give a hoot what most racegoers/pundits seem to think, but Ryan Moore is far from being the greatest jockey in the world.
    I can’t have that he couldn’t have gotten Rubies 1 length closer before turning into the straight in the Oaks trial. It was a dreadful ride and still would have been, even if he had got up. His rides at Longchamp today were absolutely dire, just dire.
    People look at his BC win last year on AR and yes, it was a good ride, but other jockeys would have won on it and he is lucky enough to ride alot of the best horses in the world and sometimes, the horse makes him look good.
    Mick Kinnane he aint.
    Sorry Ryan.

  2. Agree with Henry. He has become the new Frankie when Frankie went through his period thinking win or I dont give a shit.
    Ryan gives up way too easily as he knows he has another group horse in 35 minutes

  3. Must agree with both comments, he rides to win only and I never back his rides as an each-way punt.
    You are editing your system saved in slot 36 named ‘Ryan Moore not on a Favourite’.
    Any changes you make will need to be saved or they will NOT take effect.

    Performance of System Based on Below Set Criteria.
    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) P/L(Plc) A/E chi
    4786 526 10.99 -981.06 1547 32.32 4786 10.99 -20.5 -450.05 -15.39 208.95 0.64 -335.24 0.83 20.24
    You currently have 3 categories with specifications in your system.

    Race Data – All of these categories specify only the types of races included.
    Submit
    Race Distance Between 5f And 7f
    Horse Data – These categories specify the individual traits of each horse in THIS race.
    Submit
    Favouritism Status
    Non-Favs
    Jockey Data – These categories specify characteristics for the jockey riding the analysed horse.
    Submit
    Jockey
    Moore, Ryan
    Not that this micro system I have has reproduced very well, but it shows that Ryan Moore on a non fav in short races 5-7 furs has a loss of 450 points. A simple plan to avoid his poor rides.

  4. Must agree with both comments, he rides to win only and I never back his rides as an each-way punt.
    You are editing your system saved in slot 36 named ‘Ryan Moore not on a Favourite’.
    Any changes you make will need to be saved or they will NOT take effect.

    Performance of System Based on Below Set Criteria.
    Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% Races Race% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Lay(BF) ROI(L) P/L(Plc) A/E chi
    4786 526 10.99 -981.06 1547 32.32 4786 10.99 -20.5 -450.05 -15.39 208.95 0.64 -335.24 0.83 20.24
    You currently have 3 categories with specifications in your system.

    Race Data – All of these categories specify only the types of races included.
    Submit
    Race Distance Between 5f And 7f
    Horse Data – These categories specify the individual traits of each horse in THIS race.
    Submit
    Favouritism Status
    Non-Favs
    Jockey Data – These categories specify characteristics for the jockey riding the analysed horse.
    Submit
    Jockey
    Moore, Ryan
    Not that this micro system I have has reproduced very well, but it shows that Ryan Moore on a non fav in short races 5-7 furs has a loss of 450 points. A simple plan to avoid his poor rides. Losses of nearly 1,000 points to ISP.

  5. Hi John, what are your thoughts on messers Channon and Johnson complaining about courses watering, so as there are no gd/gf or firm ground for horses who like to hear thier hooves rattling to run and get withdrawn or stay in stables.
    Where do you think the line of safe racing should be drawn.

    1. Hi Mike,

      I’m not a fan of artificial watering and the worst time to do it is the night before racing.

      The problem is some racourses are concerned about field sizes being hit by having firm in the going description.
      I do I have a certain symoathy with the racecourses because there are trainers who just won’t run their horses in rattling quick ground. Which is strage because the same trainers run horses on quick ground in say the Breeders Cup.

      As i mentioned in Monday’s column on times the Chester going on Friday was firm and I don’t think there were any problems. Those horses who needed juice in the ground were withdrawn,

      Oh and I won’t go into the issue of weak througbreds, breeding throughbreds, etc.

  6. Peter jonathan henry Sharp

    Agree totally with Henry Mr Moore can climb on the back of a huge number of group horses and usually makes a mess on about half of those .Similar to Pat Eddery who had 2 distinct styles or riding .! where he would throw the kitchen sink at his ride and the other a token gesture and then give up.I will put up 2 jockeys who would out-perform Moore any day.Oisin Murphy-the complete professional and Paul Mulrennan (dependant on Jim saying yes !!) who always gets his horse to the right position to challenge

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