Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of today’s action at Brighton.
However, I’m beginning today’s column with an ante post selection for York’s Ebor Festival.
Probably some of you are thinking. Oh no not another ante post tip that will bomb out and given my record on the flat this season I wouldn’t blame you. On the plus side if this one was to win, I would be in the black as far as this season’s ante post bets go.
I think Tom Segal (Pricewise) is going to go for the same horse as his Nunthorpe selection in Wednesday’s Racing Post, so time is of the essence.
Ante Post Advice: Nunthorpe Stakes York
Highfield Princess will make a bold bid to retain her Nunthorpe Crown. The mare was back to winning ways at Goodwood last week and for me the rightful favourite.
However, I like Regional at 16/1 each way. Yes, he has a bit find with the favourite on Official Rating’s (OR). But at least know he’s going for the race which is key when it comes to ante post betting Plus, he’ll likely be half his present odds on the day.
Regional is at his best over a flat 5f, won a valuable C&D handicap and followed up in a Listed race at Haydock in June. A 76-day break is no inconvenience either as he’s got a good record fresh.
All his four career wins have come on good or quicker ground and barring York turning into another Goodwood style swamp he should get his ground.
I will be disappointed if he can’t place, and I think he might be capable of the improvement required to win the race on fast ground.
Regional – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend
The period between Glorious Goodwood and York’s Ebor Festival is a relatively quality free couple of weeks.
That said we do have the first 2-year-old Group 1 of the year on Saturday. It’s the latest running of the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh (4:35) and there’s €177,000 on offer to the winner.
This side of the Irish Sea its Shergar Cup Day at Ascot. Frankie Dettori will captain the Europe team and is having his final rides in the team event. Besides the Europe team, there are the usual teams from Britain & Ireland, the Rest Of The World and a Ladies Team.
Regular readers will know my views on these team competitions like the Racing League. However, the Shergar Cup does attract Ascot’s biggest attendance outside of the Royal Meeting so you can’t fault it on that score. It’s also just one meeting a year and it takes place in a perios in the calendar where there’s not much happening.
I decided to take an interest in the Shergar Cup for the first time last year and I enjoyed it from an entertainment perspective. Mind you it did help that I had a couple of winners on the day and made a profit. Yes, I’ll likely be getting involved again and I’m just hoping that ground is better than at Goodwood.
There’s also Group action at Haydock and Newmarket on Saturday. The feature race at Haydock is the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (3:00). Over at Newmarket the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes (3.40) is the highlight of a six race card at flat racing’s headquarters.
ITV are covering all six races live from the Shergar Cup. Plus, two races from Haydock and one from Newmarket on a nine race programme.
Phoenix Stakes
I would normally look at Saturday’s big race in much more detail but not this week.
Aidan O’Brien has won 9 of the last 15 renewals of the race including last year with Little Big Bear. Not surprisingly he has large number entries in this year’s race. Indeed, he has 6 of the 12 left in at Tuesday’s final confirmation stage and they include likely warm favourite River Tiber.
The son of Wootton Bassett is unbeaten on all three starts completing the hat trick in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The colt has become a bit of a forgotten horse since his exciting stablemate City Of Troy burst on to the scene.
Seven of the O’Brien’s 9 winners won last time out – 7 winners from 17 runners 41% +8.01, 11 placed.
Since 2005 eight winners of the race ran in the Anglesey Stakes last time, three ran in the Coventry Stakes and one in the July Stakes at Newmarket.
The biggest rival to River Tiber is surely Bucanero Fuerte who finished third to him in the Coventry Stakes and boasted that form when winning the Group 2 Railway Stakes over C&D last month.
Other rivals include Group 3 Albany Stakes winner Porta Fortuna who is a perfect 3-3 after her Royal Ascot success and Givemethebeatboys who finished a ¾ length and one place behind Bucanero Fuerte in the Coventry Stakes.
There were just two English trained runners still among the entries and neither look to have any chance.
Verdict:
I’m a fan of River Tiber and I think he wins. But on an easier surface I can see Bucanero Fuerte giving him a race. I also wouldn’t be quick to rule out the filly Porta Fortuna if she was to line-up. Her Royal Ascot form is solid, and she’s got the scope to progress further.
At the time of writing on Tuesday lunchtime no bookmaker has priced up the race. But I would go evens River Tiber, 4/1 Porta Fortuna and 5/1 Bucanero Fuerte. Whilst my idea of the winner is the likely favourite River Tiber, the value elsewhere might lay elsewhere.
Wednesday Preview
The highlight of Wednesday’s action is the start of Brighton’s biggest meeting of the year. It’s three days of racing on the South Coast. The Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap (4:30) is best race this side of the Irish Sea.
The Brighton feature isn’t the most valuable race on Wednesday though. That distinction goes to the Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap at Sligo (6:10) which has 11 runners competing for the €15,340 winners prize.
Now Brighton isn’t one of my favourite tracks and rarely have a bet there. However, I have looked at the card and there are a couple of interest to me.
Brighton
4:30 – Cobalt Blue is an eight race maiden whoshaped with enough promise on his final two juvenile starts to think he can win a race. Poor on his first two starts this season but has run with a bit more promise on his last two including when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 8 to G'daay at Epsom 20 days ago. Drawn out widest of all isn’t ideal but at least his trainer Roger Varian has a good recent record at the track 6 winners from 10 runners 60% +14.11, 7 placed in the past two years and 3-year-old’s have won five of the last ten renewals of the race.
5:30 – Heer's Sadie bids for a C&D hat trick in the lucky last. The mare who is at her best on quick ground came from the rear in a strongly run race to get up close home last time. Up 2lb for last month’s success she’s the form pick but doesn’t seem likely to get the same pace set up her.
Cobalt Blue hasn't won a race yet and Heer's Sadie probably won't get the race run to suit. Which means both my fancies are less than solid so I will just leave you with my Nunthorpe ante post selection.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John