Hi all,
Inside today’s main I’m previewing some of Friday’s racing.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Draw
Final declarations and the draw for Sunday’s Arc were confirmed yesterday.
Giavellotto (5)
White Birch (9)
Arrow Eagle (16)
Sosie Stephane (3)
Los Angeles (14)
Byzantine Dream (15)
Estrange (18) – NR
Quisisana (7)
Kalpana (10)
Aventure (12)
Daryz (2)
Leffard (6)
Cualificar William Buick (8)
Hotazhell (11)
Croix Du Nord (17)
Alohi Alii (4)
Minnie Hauk (1)
Gezora (13)
Likely favourite Minnie Hauk has landed the plum inside berth in stall 1. By contrast, her market rival Aventure faces a tougher task from stall 12.
Japan’s big hope Croix Du Nord has been drawn wide in 17, only just inside Estrange in the car park slot of 18. Estrange is now a non-runner but Croix Du Nord need inspired ride to overcome his stall.
Kalpana who will wear first-time cheekpieces and breaks from stall 10. Not ideal, but it could have been worse. Stablemates Daryz (2) and Quisisana (7) both look well berthed, while one of my main fancies and another stablemate Gezora has it tougher from 13.
Supporters of Cualificar will be pleased with stall 8, while Japanese contender Alohi Alii is also nicely placed in stall 4.
I know which ones I won’t be backing in the Arc after the draw was announced, but the weather will have the final say on who I do side with. Forecasts range from 4mm to 40mm of rain over the next two days, so conditions could be anything from good to heavy. Realistically, it’ll probably settle somewhere in between.
As for Kalpana, I wasn’t taken with her attitude last time and even described her as “possibly soft”. That said, I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay her at 11/1.
Ascot
On the eve of Arc Weekend, Ascot kicks off a two-day meeting. The Listed BetMGM Noel Murless Stakes (4:05) headlines the six-race card. Arabian Force, runner-up in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes, should relish the step up to 1m6f and will be a warm order dropping in class. Ralph Beckett, who has won this race three times since 2016, relies on Push The Limit. He was runner-up here over 1m4f in a handicap last time and is a player. Andrew Balding won this last year and in 2022 and runs Fantasy World. He needs to improve plenty on ratings, but rain-softened ground will help.
4:30 – Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
I touched on Clive Holt’s Fineform ratings yesterday and likely favourite Brosay is a maximum qualifier. He’s won his last two starts, the latest over C&D. Up 6lb but the 3yo has thrived since returning to 6f and looks capable of going in again.
Sonbad is another to note. Twice a winner this season, he bounced back to form when 1¾ lengths 2nd of 25 in the Ayr Silver Cup. Already a C&D scorer in May and runner-up on his other start here, a return to Ascot is a plus. Big run on the cards.
Bob Mali was back to his best when a neck 2nd of 15 at Doncaster three weeks ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb and in a deeper race but is suited by easy ground – with three wins and four places from five runs on good to soft or heavy. Yard going well, and if he can build on that latest effort, looks to hold solid claims if the rain has arrived.
Korker is on a losing run of 19 but is edging down the weights. He was slowly away again when a running-on 6th of 12 at Ripon six days ago. Still winless in 14 starts over 6f, but he continues to shape like he’ll click when everything falls right.
Rock Opera is also on a long losing run but has bits of form this year to be competitive. He was a ¾ length third of 19 to Elmonjed at York three starts back. Probably needs good or quicker ground so the forecast rain is a negative.
Russet Gold seems to be going through the motions this season but was a little bit better last time at Doncaster. Suited by soft ground the handicapper has given him a chance on his 3rd of 9 in a Group 3 over C&D at this meeting last year.
Brian has disappointed on his last two 7f starts but can’t be dismissed. He finished just two lengths behind Big Mojo in a Group 3 over C&D in May and would be dangerous if recapturing that form
Dundalk
There’s Listed action at Dundalk tonight with the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (6:30) and the Star Appeal Stakes (7:30). The latter doesn’t excite, but I do like one in the Legacy Stakes. Sirius A, trained by James Horton, looks interesting. The colt improved on his all-weather debut when finishing a neck second, later placed third by the stewards, in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton. He’s unexposed on synthetics and holds excellent claims here.
Later, in the Fillies & Mares Handicap (8:30), Aviatrice has a good chance. The 3yo has hit the frame on her last two turf starts and could be suited by the drop back to 7f. Her best RPR came over 6f here on her last all-weather start in November. A concern is the yard’s 0-25 run over the past fortnight, so while her claims are clear, I wouldn’t want to take a short price.
Staking Challenge Selection
Dundalk
6:30 – Sirius A – £1.60 win – 4/1.
Running Total: £66.00
Tomorrow I'll be looking at the three ITV races from Newmarket on Sun Chariot Day.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John