Arc Ante-Post Bet

Good morning all,

Pricewise took a look at the Arc in the week and came up with Loxley as their pick, but having had a look myself yesterday there's a different one I have in mind, and I'm having a bit on this morning.

That, plus one from the watching list that I fancy quite strongly at Wolverhampton tonight, are on the main piece. 

Prix De L'Arc

The Main Contenders

Sea Of Class is among the favourites now after another impressive victory in the Yorkshire Oaks last week. The way she quickened up in the closing stages was impressive, but there’s a couple of questions to answer for me. The first will be the ground, which, if on the soft side (and if often is come Longchamp in October) then she will need to prove her effectiveness on it, and in any case, the Yorkshire Oaks to the Arc is one big step up. (And yes, I know Enable did it last year, but she already had the King George under her belt too.)

Enable, if fit and well on the day, would surely go off a lot shorter than the 5-1 she is now. Last year’s winner was very impressive on the day and has the best form in the race. But time is running out a bit, and whilst her Kempton comeback will tell us plenty, I think I’d rather back her on the day at 3-1 rather than chance her now at 5s.

Cracksman doesn’t look the force of old this season and even if he was to get the soft ground he needs, I’d still find him hard to fancy. His form of last year obviously takes him close, but there are questions as to whether he can reproduce that now.

Crystal Ocean was probably unlucky to get mugged in the King George, having done plenty of the donkey work in the straight. He’s a horse I like a lot, he’s got a willing attitude but for me, his very best form comes on quick ground. He handles some cut and will run his race, but I’d be slightly surprised if he was good enough.

Similar comments apply to the improving Poet’s Word, who was put in his place by Roaring Lion at York (some criticism for the ride by James Doyle) last week. Soft ground would ask a new question – he has won with some cut, but a defeat of Second Step at Goodwood last year won’t be giving many of these sleepless nights. And Cracksman panned him on soft at Ascot in the Champion Stakes later in the month, although tbf Cracksman would have panned anyone that day.

So if there’s value where does it lie? Maybe the forgotten horse is Capri, who has a similar question to Enable to answer in so far as there’s been obvious hold-ups in this year’s prep. We haven’t seen him since April when he was able to win a G3 at Naas over a trip a bit too short for him these days, so yes, that is a worry. But a recent piece in the Post rather suggested that it was now all systems go for the Arc for Capri (“he's back now, and everything is good with him. I'm happy with him and looking forward to getting him back.”) He blew out in the race last year but for me that came too soon after the St Leger, and from a wide draw, he didn’t stand much chance anyway. So if you forgive that, and concentrate on his previous efforts – that defeat of Crystal Ocean in the Leger, and before that a win over Cracksman in the Irish Derby – he starts to look quite appealing at 25s. He acts on most ground, and some cut certainly won’t be an issue. So given the upbeat reports coming from Aiden, I’m having a bit e/w at 25s today, before he goes for one of the Arc trials (the Prix Foy most likely).

Wolverhampton today seems an unlikely place to find a bet but Canford Heights in the closer at 7.05. Here's what I said about him after his latest run at Windsor in July –

“I quite liked him on debut at Lingfield and he had clearly learnt a bit from that here, racing much more prominently than was the case there. He was still in with place chances when Georgia Cox gave him a crack 300 yards out, which caused both him and jockey to get a little unbalanced. Sensibly she’s looked after him after that. He’s got some real size and scope, lovely topline and looked a bit of quality.”

He goes up in trip tonight and this will be his third run, so handicaps may be on their minds but all the same, but it's pleasing to see a bit of money around for him this morning. I shall be having a bet.

Today's selection – Canford Heights 7.05 Wolverhampton

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.