Hi all,
They’ve had more rain than expected at Longchamp over the last couple of days. Depending on how much more falls on Sunday, I wouldn’t expect it to be bottomless on Arc Day — but it won’t be quick either. So, we’re likely looking at good to soft ground, hopefully soft for an excellent betting card.
Inside today’s main piece I’ve looked at three of the ITV races at Longchamp.
Arc Day: Longchamp
The best day’s flat racing in Europe bar none. There’s Six Group 1’s on an utterly compelling card and ITV Racing are covering three of them plus the Group 1 Qatar Arabian World Cup (2:25).
I have some strong fancies in the three Group 1’s not on ITV which I shared with subscribers yesterday and I’m having a big swing at Sunday’s Longchamp card.
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m4f
Minnie Hauk is unbeaten in four, having swept up the Cheshire, Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks. She receives the age and sex allowance on her first start against colts and has obvious claims. Nicely drawn in stall 1, though soft ground in this company remains an unknown. The one to beat.
Kalpana was ante-post favourite for a long time but has since drifted from attention. I wasn’t taken with her attitude last time — I even described her as “possibly soft” — and I’m unsure about first-time cheekpieces. Still, she breaks from stall 10, the ground has come in her favour, and this has been her long-term target. Plenty to like.
Daryz was well beaten in the International at York on quick ground but bounced back with a short head second to Croix du Nord in a Group 3 here (1m2f) last month. He looked unlucky in the run that day, and he’s bred to appreciate the Arc distance. With stall 2 and a clearer passage, he can go close.
Japanese challenger Alohi Alii made all to win a Group 2 at Deauville on his European debut. He could get an uncontested lead again from stall 4 and is one of the Japanese contenders who won’t mind easier ground.
White Birch may be better at 1m2f but relishes soft ground, so while the trip is a slight concern, he can’t be ruled out from stall 9.
3:50 – Prix de l’Opéra Longines (Group 1) – 1m2f
Tamfana, winner of last year’s Sun Chariot Stakes (1m) at Newmarket. Best 3yo form came at a mile but she showed her stamina when a close third in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). First run since finishing last in the Lockinge Stakes in May on quick ground. Her absence isn’t a concern, but this has been her target all season and she gets her favoured easy ground. Can go close from stall 3.
Nicoreni, the German Oaks winner, has never been out of the first two in four runs. She’ll need another step forward to win this. However, if conditions are genuinely soft, her stamina will be a major asset.
4:25 – Qatar Prix de la Forêt (Group 1) – 7f
More Thunder and Sajir are the two in-form horses, but neither is well drawn. More Thunder took the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last time and fits the profile of a typical William Haggas improver, though stall 16 makes his 11/4 quote unattractive.
Sajir is arguably the class horse of the race after his group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest win at Deauville. However, he’s out in stall 13, so Oisin Murphy will need to be at his very best to overcome that.
Zarigana, who won the French 1,000 Guineas here in May, was outbattled close to home when runner-up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Dropping back to a strongly run 7f could really suit, and with a low draw (stall 6), she’s interesting. She doesn’t find much when hitting the front, so Barzalona will need to time his run perfectly.
Trainer Christopher Head, who won this last year, saddles Maranoa Charlie and Topgear. The former has a good draw in stall 4 for a prominent racer and has been running well in Group 1s over the trip on his last two starts. He’s right in the mix. Topgear, who beat Sajir in a C&D Group 3 in the spring was behind that one Prix Maurice de Gheest on quick ground. He prefers soft ground and can outrun his odds from stall 8.
Staking Challenge Selection
Longchamp
4:25 – Topgear – £1.60 win – 12/1
Running Total: £63.00
Tomorrow I’ll begin my recap of an excellent weekend of big race action across Europe.
Good luck with your Arc Day bets.
John
Good luck today John, you’re doing yourself down with the running total on your challenge
It currently reads Bank £66.00 ( -£34.00 ).
That is without taking today’s stake into consideration.