Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you’ll find a few thoughts on Sunday’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Bluestocking was supplemented for this year’s Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Wednesday, costing connections €120,000. She’s likely to join Sunway as the second British-trained runner in the Arc. Notably absentees were Opera Singer and Sparkling Plenty from the lineup.

It’s fair to say this year’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is below par. The five best middle-distance horses in Europe—City Of Troy, Economics, White Birch, Calandagan, and Goliath—won’t be running. Two have different targets, one is injured and the latter pair are geldings, making them ineligible.

That said, the race is more competitive this year. Thirteen of Sunday’s Arc entries are separated by just 5lb on Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s).

Source: Racing Post.

Whilst I don’t have Horseracebase trends for the race, some trends stand out. Looking at the draw, 20 of the last 26 winners came from stalls 1-8. Horses drawn between 1-6 have won 15 of the last 22 Arcs.

Given the configuration of Longchamp track with its right handed bends, it’s not surprising that on decent ground a high draw hasn’t been the place to be.  Clearly horses have managed to win from a double digit draw but it usually happens on soft or even more testing ground. Golden Horn defied stall 14 to win in 2015 but was helped by a good tactical ride from Frankie Dettori.

As for the favourites, four of the last ten have won, including the last two, showing a solid form line of 3451126311.

Contenders:

The going will play a big part, but the weather may not be as bad as had been feared. French-trained 3-year-olds Sosie and Look De Vega head the ante post betting. The latter, given an easy prep last month and subject to good gallop reports might even go off as favourite on the day

Other contenders include Los Angeles, who ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes over an inadequate 1m 2f, and Japanese challenger Shin Emperor, who was third in the same race.

Auguste Rodin tops the RPR’s (see above) and should be close to favouritism, but he can be backed at 16/1 with plenty of firms. He finished in front in front of stablemate Los Angeles and Shin Emperor last time. However, he needs a sound surface, and his odds are clear indication that he won’t run.

At longer odds, Mqse De Sevigne and Aventure don’t have much to find on ratings. German challenger Fantastic Moon is interesting on good or quicker ground and Al Riffa, laid out for this race all season, also enters the picture.

The draw for this year’s race takes place on Thursday morning, and we could see significant shifts in the ante-post betting.

I have a couple of picks I’m keeping an eye on for the Arc. If you want my final selections, you can get them here.

Thursday Racing

I was at my pre-surgery assessment on Wednesday, and with time lost studying yesterday’s abandoned Nottingham card means I haven’t looked too closely at Thursday’s action. It doesn’t look great, but Friday promises better racing as the action heats up.

Executive Decision, who went into the tracker back in June after a promising run at Epsom, delivered her best performance of the season when finishing a neck second of five at Newmarket just 7 days ago. This afternoon, she steps down a couple of classes in the Madar Corporation Handicap (3:50) at Salisbury, where the testing ground plays to her strengths. Now sitting 2lb below her last winning mark, there's plenty to like about her chance today, despite a wide draw in stall 13.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John