Arc Preview

Hi all,

There are six Group 1’s at Longchamp for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day. It’s the biggest day in French flat racing season and the Arc itself is the most valuable race run in Europe.

You can watch the first four Group 1’s live on ITV4 or watch them all on Sky Sports Racing.

There’s hasn’t been as much anticipation about Arc Day as in previous season’s. I’m not sure why that is. Some have suggested that Ascot’s Champions Day is now superseding the meeting for British trainers. That could be the case. However, I’m not so sure.

However, with decent flat racing ground expected and competitive fields its sure to provide plenty of exciting moments for racegoers and TV viewers.

The Arc has been a good race for me over the years. However, nothing tops the 2021 race when I advised Torquator Tasso at 100/1. No 100/1 pokes this year. The much better ground means you need to concentrate on those more to the front end of the betting.

It’s a cracking afternoon of top class horse racing and one I always thoroughly enjoy.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3:00)

Working out how the ground will ride could be harder than finding the winner of the race itself. It doesn’t look like they will water and given temperatures tomorrow are set to be high 20s then I’m hoping its going to be quick.

There are few horses that seemingly want to go forward. So, despite 15 runners it might not be a strongly run race. Those horses that are held up might well face traffic problems in the straight. Thus, it could pay to be reasonably close to the pace.

Hukum and Westover have contrasting draws. The first named is drawn out in stall 14. Horses can win from wide draws. Golden Horn, for example, won from stall 14 in 2015 but he had more tactical speed than Hukum. I expect Jim Crowley will drop him in and ride him for luck in the straight.

Westover comes out of stall 1. That draw might not be totally ideal for him because he can be a keen goer and jockey Rob Hornby won’t want his horse to get to lit up in the early stages, but he also doesn’t want to find himself behind horses on the rail.

If there is a superstar in the field, it will be Ace Impact. The French Derby winner is unbeaten on five starts. He’s not raced over 1m 4f, but I think he’ll stay, and he comes into the race a fresh horse. He’ll be held up so doesn’t want to be to far back when making his effort though.

I think Hukum, Westover and Ace Impact are priced about right. St Leger winner Continuous if anything is underpriced and he wouldn’t be as short if he was trained by anyone other than Aidan O’Brien.

Overpriced horses:

There are four horses who are overpriced in the ante post betting: Through Seven Seas, Fantastic Moon, Bay Bridge and Place Du Carrousel.

The Japanese are desperate to win the Arc and the drying ground brings Through Seven Seas into the mix. The mare ran the brilliant Equinox to a neck in a Grade 1 in June. She’s yet to win a Grade/Group 1 race but she seems to have improved this year and if her last time effort can be taken at face value then she should be able to win one.

German Derby winner Fantastic Moon has been supplemented due to the drying ground. He’s gone a bit under the radar coming into the race. However. The 3-year-old has solid form and doesn’t need to improve much to go close.

Bay Bridge is another to have gone under the radar. Last year’s Group 1 Champion Stakes winner was back to his best for the first time this season when winning the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton. The step up to 1m 4f suited him well and provided the ground doesn’t turn out to be too quick he’s got the class to go well.

Place Du Carrousel was trained to win the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera (1m 2f) 12 months ago and it looks like the filly has been trained for this race. She seemed to stay 1m 4f, albeit in a slowly run race when winning the Group 2 Prix Foy over C&D three weeks ago. Another with solid each way claims in an open race even the quick ground is an unknown.

Arc Verdict:

Ace Impact cut this field down with a withering turn of foot, but I’m worried that he might find trouble in running. I was sweet on Bay Bridge earlier in the week, but the drying ground puts me off.  It’s also a concern for Place Du Carrousel. That leaves me with Fantastic Moon and the Japanese challenger Through Seven Seas.

I have done a very in-depth preview of the day’s action for Victor Value subscribers. As good as I think it is. If it doesn’t produce any winners, it will just end up the virtual bin.  

Here’s my preview of the juvenile fillies Group 1 the Prix Marcel Boussac.

1:50 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m

Opera Singer put in a much improved performance when returning to winning ways in the Group 3 Flame Of Tara Stakes at the Curragh last time It was a comfortable success for the daughter of Justify who is going the right way. Better ground will suit and I think she’s 1,000 Guineas contender. I was hoping we would see her in the Fillies Mile later this month at Newmarket but she comes here.

Darnation keeps on improving and she completed the hat trick when winning the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster 17 days ago. Her form is the best on offer in the race, but it has come on soft ground so quicker ground would be an unknown.

The best of the French challengers looks to be Les Pavots. The daughter of No Nay Never improved to win a Group 2 at Deauville last time. She’s an improving filly and should give the British & Irish fillies a race.

Both Julica and Zandy are open to further improvement. The first named has won a couple of minor races but couldn’t have been more impressive in victory on both occasions. Zandy won a minor race at Chantilly 18 days ago. The daughter of Frankel has the pedigree that will be suited to quick ground.

Prix Marcel Boussac Verdict:

The drying ground means Opera Singer can get the better of Darnation.  Both Julica and Zandy are intriguing fillies capable of plenty more improvement.

Sunday Selection:

Longchamp

1:50 – Opera Singer.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

John