Morning all,
It’s the 100th running of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. The world best horse race looks to have attracted a high-class field. The only two missing are Mishriff and the newly retired St Mark’s Basilica, both better over shorter. Apart from those two. The best middle-distance horses in Europe are all set to run including two Derby winners. Add in two top class Japanese contenders and you can see why the race looks worthy of all the hype.
Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to the Arc. Plus, I have a selection from Salisbury.
Something for the weekend – Part 2
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
The going is good to soft, good in places at Longchamp. The weather forecast is suggesting mainly dry up until Friday when they could get 1mm and Saturday they could get 1-2mm, However, there could be 10 to 12mm on Sunday which could see the ground turn soft.
Contenders
Adayar is the best horse on ratings and should be the clear favourite. The Derby/King George winner comes into the race a relatively fresh horse as this will only be his fifth start of the season. He had a setback which meant he missed his prep race which is a slight concern. Stablemate Hurricane Lane is triple Group 1 winner – Irish Derby, Grand Prix De Paris (C&D) and St Leger. Any ease in the ground will suit but I think he had a hard race at Doncaster.
Tarnawa is joint favourite with Adayar. The 5-year-old has been trained for the race and will be spot on for this after ¾ length second to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes last month. Return to 1m 4f is a big plus. Needs a career best to land this but she’s likely capable of it.
Snowfall, Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks heroine blotted her copy book when beaten in the Prix Vermeille. The slow pace was said not to have suited her that day. However, the Aidan O’Brien was under a bit of a cloud at the time so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back on Sunday. Another who likes some juice in the ground. Stablemate Love looks a big price at 25/1 on her best 3-year-old form but she hasn’t really fired this season and would likely need good ground or quicker to be at her best.
The International Contenders
There are two Japanese contenders and one from Germany. There seems to be plenty of confidence behind Osin Murphy’s mount Chrono Genesis. The mare is a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan and ran Mishriff to a neck in the Sheema Classic at Meydan on World Cup night. May be better on a quicker surface but she has won on soft in the past.
Deep Bond made all to win the Prix Foy over C&D last time. That performance stamped him as a high-class colt. However, he’s yet to race on going worse than yielding. If soft ground isn’t an inconvenience he could get in to the places at big odds.
Torquator Tasso, twice a Group 1 winner in Germany has a bit to find on ratings and was beaten by Alpinista two starts back. A strongly run 1m 4f should suit the colt and he’s another who get into the frame.
Lively Outsiders
Raabihah finished 5th in last year’s Arc and returned to winning ways when successful in a Group 2 at Deauville in August. There were doubts about her participation but it now looks likely she will come here rather than go for another race on Arc Weekend. Another with place claims and if there is a home winner of the race it will be her.
Alenquer, trained by William Haggas, will take his place. The 3-year-old has some decent form that makes him a contender. He was doing his best work at the finish when 6 length 2nd to Mishriff in the International Stakes at York last time. Prior to that he finished 7 lengths behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris. Albeit he was poorly placed and set too much to do after an awkward start in that race. This is his trip; he goes well with cut in the ground and is a lively outsider.
Verdict:
The draw can be important in the Arc and the race provides more than its fair share of hard luck stories. I’m not expecting anything different this time around. It looks a race to savour that’s for sure.
If it wasn’t for the interrupted prep, I would be very keen on Adayar. I wonder if Snowfall was feeling the effects of a hard season when beaten last time. Tarnawa’s claims are there for all to see. Chrono Genesis has claims of giving a Japan a first win the race.
For those looking for one at bigger odds the likes of Deep Bond, Raabihah, Alenquer and Torquator Tasso all appeal. Me, I’m holding fire until the draw is out and I know more about underfoot conditions.
If you want my Arc and other weekend selections. You can get them here.
Thursday racing
Salisbury
4:32 – Poet Of Life ran below market expectations on his handicap debut when 4th of 11 at Sandown last month. Should be capable of better but looks worth taking on here.
Lord Protector won over C&D (soft) in May. Before likely not staying 1m 4f back here the following month. Wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 10 in a better race than this at Newmarket in July. It was good to firm that day he's probably better with some ease in the ground.
Majestic Dawn last year’s Cambridgeshire winner. Was pulled out of this year’s race on account of the quick ground but will like today’s surface more.
March Law has returned from a long absence with a couple of promising performances, including when a ½ length 2nd of 5 at Kempton 8-days ago
Rebel Territory won at the 6th attempt at Goodwood 61-days ago. He proved his stamina for 1m 1f that day on soft ground. He’s up 6lb for that win but he could be capable of better for a yard among the winners. The forecast strong pace should see him get the race run to suit.
Verdict: I’m expecting better from C&D winner Lord Protector on an easy surface. However, preference is for Rebel Territory.
Thursday selection:
Salisbury
4:42 – Rebel Territory – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk