Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my thoughts on Arc Trials Day, plus two eyecatchers from last week’s racing.
Longchamp: Arc Trials Day
The ground was officially “good to soft” at Longchamp, but in truth it rode much quicker. Four fascinating races gave us plenty to chew over.
Prix Foy
Japanese raider Byzantine Dream showed pace dropping back to 1m4f and proved too strong for Sosie (2nd), Almaqam (3rd) and Los Angeles (4th). It was a useful effort, but I don’t see him winning an Arc.
Sosie, fourth in last year’s Arc, but I don’t see him doing better this time around. Almaqam looked as though he stayed 1m 4f but needs softer ground; Ed Walker seems set to roll the dice in October and go for the Arc. Los Angeles, third in last year’s Arc, ran a solid prep. He’ll come forward again, and at 40/1 he looks big—he’s the one I’d expect to do best of this bunch back here next month.
Prix Vermeille
Last year Bluestocking used this Group 1 race as a springboard to Arc glory. This time the hot favourite Whirl (1/2) flopped badly, finishing last of six despite getting the run of the race. She never looked happy and found little off the bridle. I’d be surprised to see her in the Arc – retirement or a Breeders’ Cup tilt seems likelier.
Aventure, runner-up in last year’s Arc, ran out a smooth winner from French Oaks heroine Gezora. It was the perfect prep, and she has a huge chance of going one better next month. Now 9/2 joint-favourite with Minnie Hauk.
Gezora, making her first start since Chantilly, shaped well in second. It turned into more of a speed test, but I think she stays 1m 4f. At 16/1 she’s fairly priced, though you would expect Aventure to confirm the form.
Prix Niel
Andre Fabre’s Cualificar got up by a neck, though he was value for more having been boxed in two furlongs out. Even so, this looked the weakest of the trials and was run in the slowest time. He’s useful but not Arc-winning class.
Arc Trials Verdict
I don’t see Byzantine Dream or Cualificar winning an Arc. If there is one to take from the Foy and Niel it’s Los Angeles who looks too big at 40/1.
If there was an Arc winner on Sunday’s card, its most likely to be Aventure in the Vermeille. But I’d also keep Gezora onside.
This year’s Arc looks wide open. As ever, the draw and ground on the day will have the final say.
Sahlan Shines In Moulin
The Group 1 Prix Moulin over a mile was the most competitive contest on Arc Trials Day. The race went the way of improving 3yo Sahlan. A winner of a Group 3 at Deauville on his previous start, he produced a good change of gear to run out a decisive winner. He’s yet to face truly testing ground, so his next race looks likely to be the Breeders’ Cup Mile. That race should suit him perfectly and he’s one I’m keen to back at Del Mar.
Rosallion was dropped in from his wide draw and settled at the rear but left himself too much to do. He went down by a short head but didn’t really convince. Whilst talented, he’s not as good as trainer Richard Hannon believes. Very good horses find ways to win when things go against them. Merely good ones don’t. Rosallion is in the latter group. It wouldn’t surprise me if connections opt for a change of jockey next time which may work but doesn’t change my thoughts.
The Lion In Winter bounced back to his best to finish a half-length third. He’s had well-documented issues with his feet but looked more comfortable here. The problem is you can’t trust him to back it up. Stablemate Henri Matisse was sent off favourite but could only manage fifth. It was another disappointing run. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner could still return to Del Mar for the Mile but has something to prove now.
Eyecatchers
This week’s two eyecatchers ran at Haydock on Saturday and York on Sunday.
Paddy The Squire (Iain Jardine)
He stayed on for a 3¼-length fifth behind The Reverend in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. The step up to 1m6f didn’t spark improvement, but he still shaped well. A return to a strongly run 1m4f looks the right move. He handles soft ground too, so something like the November Handicap at Doncaster could be an ideal end-of-season target.
Crestofdistinction (Jack Channon)
Amid the drama of Almeraq falling, Crestofdistinction’s head second to Elmonjed in York’s Listed Garrowby Stakes might slip under the radar. A dual all-weather winner, he proved here that he’s just as effective on turf. He could now be Ayr-bound for the Gold Cup. Bet365 go 33/1, while others are as short as 16s. That 33/1 could be worth taking.
I haven't looked at Tuesday's racing so there's no staking challenge selection today.
In Wednesday's column I'll be taking a look at Doncaster's St Leger Meeting which gets underway on Thursday.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John