Hi all,
Today’s main piece focuses on the four live ITV races at Ascot for day two of the Berkshire Winter Million.
To those who joined my Victor Value service yesterday, well done! You enjoyed three winners—two from Windsor and one from Newcastle. If you’d like access to my selections for the rest of the weekend and the next 30 days, you can get them here.
Before I look at the Ascot races the other ITV meeting at Haydock faces an 8:30am inspection because of the threat of overnight frost. I hope Haydock can race as I really fancy one on the card.
Ascot
1:40 – BetMGM Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m
Top juvenile Kargese, runner-up in last season’s Triumph Hurdle, is the standout on form. She may prefer softer ground but remains the one to beat.
Ooh Betty has won two of her three starts over hurdles since her summer break. She’s progressive, though stepping up in class here, and can’t be ruled out.
Take No Chances landed a Listed race at Wetherby in November and was a close third in a valuable Cheltenham handicap last month. The drying ground suits, and she holds solid claims.
2:15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Martator completed a five-timer with a win here (2m 1f) before finishing third at Kempton last time. The step back up in trip isn’t a concern, and he should run well, though his yard has been quiet lately.
Kansas City Star bounced back to form in refitted cheekpieces, winning at Doncaster 50 days ago. He’s up 4lb but could outrun his odds if the ground stays good to soft or better. Yard from a bit meh.
Bad has stamina concerns over 2m 5f and tends to find little at the finish. However, first-time blinkers could help, and he was competitive over hurdles here last season. Still, he’s 5lb out of the handicap.
2:50 – Holloway's Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3f
Altobelli shaped as though he’d benefit from further when a close second at Doncaster (2m ½f) last month. The return to this trip should suit, and first-time cheekpieces could bring improvement. He’s got good form at Ascot and is capable of scoring off his current mark of 132.
Kamsinas has been improving steadily, winning on his return at Aintree in October and finishing strongly for fourth in a competitive Haydock race last time. Better ground won’t bother him, and he’s a leading contender.
Doddiethegreat, a previous course winner, endured a luckless run at Kempton over Christmas, being hampered and pulled up after the first. He looks well-treated on last season’s best form and has solid claims in this open race.
3:32 – Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
A thrilling top-class two-mile chase is on the cards, with Energumene and Jonbon headlining a four strong field. But why is this marquee race scheduled for 3:32? Imagine being asked, “What time is the big race?” and replying, “3:32.” A premier contest deserves a better slot—not one more suited to greyhound racing. Come on, Ascot, this just isn’t good enough.
Energumene, the former Champion Chaser, made a solid return at Cork but faces this challenge as an 11-year-old. Two years ago, he’d be the automatic pick, but at this stage of his career, his speed may not be what it once was.
Jonbon remains underrated despite an incredible record of 16 wins from 19 starts, including eight Grade 1 victories. He might have the edge in sharpness over Energumene, whose season likely builds towards March’s Champion Chase.
Boothill, a dual course-and-distance winner, has struggled with his jumping but could take advantage, ahead of Edwardstone, if the big two were to underperform. Good-to-soft ground or better would be ideal for him.
I’m not sure if I’ll have the time to do a Sunday column. If I don’t, I’ll be back on Monday to look back at the weekend’s action at Windsor & Ascot.
Good luck with your Saturday.
John