Hi all,
For those with access to the Racing Post, there was a strong piece from Betting Editor Keith Melrose on the Berkshire Winter Million.
Keith makes the case that Windsor is the meeting to watch, with the weekend regularly producing horses who go on to win much bigger races and he’s absolutely right.
Just last year, Caldwell Potter, Myretown, Panic Attack and Kabral Du Mathan all ran at Windsor, alongside plenty of other future winners.
Keep the notebook close by and watch those replays. This weekend has a habit of pointing firmly to what’s coming next.
Today the Berkshire Winter Million moves on to Ascot. ITV Racing will show four races from a strong Ascot card, alongside three from Haydock.
There’s been plenty of rain in the south, far less in the north. It’s not often Ascot rides slower than Haydock, but that looks a real possibility on Saturday.
Inside today’s main piece, I take a close look at the four Ascot races live on ITV.
Ascot
1:40 – BetMGM Warfield Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m7½f
Nurse Susan is sure to be popular after two handicap wins over around 2m4f. Lightly raced for a nine-year-old, the drop back to two miles isn’t ideal, but she deserves her place in this grade on current form.
La Conquiere was a comfortable winner of a Listed mares’ novice at Newbury last time and remains open to further improvement. It’s interesting that Jamie Snowden pitches her into open company on just her third hurdle start. Over two miles, I think she’ll have too much speed for Nurse Susan.
2:20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m5f
Etalon returned to winning ways here 28 days ago, benefiting from an aggressive Harry Skelton front-running ride and first-time cheekpieces. He’s up 5lb and needs the headgear to work again, but if it does, he’s a major player.
Neon Moon once again disappointed with his finishing effort when fourth of six at Ludlow (3m) last time. Prior to that, the 10yo had won a C&D handicap off 3lb lower. This trip looks much more suitable, particularly on easy ground. He wouldn’t want it too testing, but with Harry Cobden back on board he has each-way claims.
Jungle Boogie is the most intriguing runner. The 12yo hasn’t been easy to train and has had just nine career starts. He won a Graduation Chase over C&D last season for Henry de Bromhead and shaped well on debut for Venetia Williams at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, looking in need of the run. If the stable were in better form, I’d really fancy him to spring a surprise. Venetia won this with a 12yo in 2016.
2:53 – BetMGM Holloway's Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m3½f
Came From Nowhere broke his duck at the fifth attempt over hurdles when winning a Hereford handicap over this trip. Lightly raced for a seven-year-old, there should be more to come. He’s unproven on good ground, but if he handles it, he remains a player despite a 7lb rise.
Surrey Lord, like the favourite, comes here in winning form after a Kempton success over 2m5f over Christmas. He’s up 6lb but remains progressive over this sort of trip and should be thereabouts again.
Samuel Spade hasn’t been at his best on three starts this season, but first-time cheekpieces are applied. He won here over 2m7½f last February and races off the same mark. Fine on good or good to soft ground and has each-way claims if bouncing back to last season’s best.
3:30 – BetMGM Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) – 2m1f
Just four runners, but it’s a cracking line-up for the day’s most valuable race, with £98,473 to the winner.
Il Etait Temps made it seven wins from nine over fences when landing his fifth Grade 1 in the Tingle Creek at Sandown last month. He bolted up and sets a very high standard.
Jonbon finished nine lengths behind him on that occasion and was firmly put in his place. It’s difficult to see him reversing the form, though he did win this race 12 months ago and Nicky Henderson has been positive about his chances.
Thistle Ask has been one of the most improved chasers in training this season. He started his career for Dan Skelton off a mark of 115 and is now 43lb higher. He fully deserves his place in the line-up, and good ground will suit.
Gidleigh Park, a Grade 2-winning novice last season, finished runner-up to Jango Baie here over 2m5f on his return. He’s unbeaten over two miles (3-3), so the drop back makes sense, but this looks more about picking up prize money.
Tomorrow it’s back to Windsor for the final day of the Berkshire Winter Million. I’ll likely to a short preview of the best of the Windsor action.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John