A trends-based look at the Ayr Silver Cup by Dr Nick Hardman
There are many ways to tackle a big field handicap race but my preferred option is a to use a trends-based approach. In a nutshell, historical race data is used to build up a profile of the typical winner. The profile is then assessed against the runners in the race and those that tick most of the boxes are the ones to focus on.
Ideally this leaves you looking at 2 or 3 runners that have the best fit for the profile and you can back one, two or all three of them to win depending on how you like to bet.
So, does this mean the horse with the closest profile to the previous winners will win? Absolutely not. They win some of the time, but not all the time.
We only need them to win often enough to make a profit in the long term and in my experience, this is usually the case. It all sounds quite simple, but the key is sorting out the trends that look significant from those that are probably irrelevant. For example, if 90% of the previous winners come from 90% of the runners that have a certain characteristic then it is simply the Law Of Averages. However, if 90% of the winners come from 50% of the runners who have a particular characteristic, then it is most likely significant.
For today I am going to run through the process and look at the trends in the Ayr Silver Cup. This is the type of race that lends itself to race profiling. With around 25 runners going to post and 21 renewals in the Horse Race Base database, we have over 500 runners-worth of data.
We start with the age of the previous winners. 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 3yo to 5yo. Horses aged 6yo and older are 3-186, compared to 18-365. Six times as many winners from twice as many runners.
10 of the last 11 winners were rated 87+, compared to just 1 from 10 prior to this. That shows a definite shift to the better horses higher up the handicap in the last decade.
The draw also looks significant. 8 previous winners came from the lowest 4 stalls and 10 previous winners were drawn in the highest 5 stalls. A middle draw looks to be a negative and getting over to the near or far rail looks the way to go. Which side is best will be dependent on the ground conditions and you can get a few clues from the race held on the Thursday and Friday. However, be aware of any changes in the going across the 3 days as that could change whichever side is favoured.
All bar 2 winners since 1997 had run in the last 5 weeks so an absence greater than this if often a negative.
Those runners that had never race beyond 6.5f have a combined record of 2-109. In contrast, those that had run over 7f or further have won 19 renewals since 1997.
These big field sprints are often run at a tremendous clip and those that stay a bit further are at an advantage. 10 previous winners of this race had never won beyond 6f and whilst that accounts for nearly 50% of the winners, their strike rate is just 3%. In contrast, the other 11 winners had won over 7f or 7.5f and they have a strike rate of 8%.
18 winners since 1997 had won between 0 and 3 previous handicap races, which marries up nicely with the age of the previous winners (3yo to 5yo).
Those runners with exactly one win in the current season are 11-177 which is roughly a 6% strike rate. In comparison those without a win in the current season are 6-190 (3% strike rate) and those with multiple wins in the season have a similarly low strike rate by comparison.
The final interesting statistic is that 17 of the last 21 winners were winning at Class 2 level for the first time, suggesting this goes to a progressive type. In summary:
- Aged 3yo to 5yo
- Rated 87+
- Drawn in 1-4 or in highest 5 stalls
- Raced and preferably won over 7f or 7.5f
- Run in the last 35 days
- Won 0-3 handicaps
- Won once this season
- Not won at Class 2 level
All that brings us now to the racecard and a look at the runners to see which ones tick the most trends boxes.
That leaves Citron Major who ticks all the boxes except for the draw. His stall is 17, 9 out from the rail which is not bad and could have been worse.
Given there are 25 going to post I am happy to fire another couple of darts and Jawwaal interests me on his run behind Dakota Gold in a similar contest two starts back. A useful claimer takes 3lbs off his back and he has twice placed at Doncaster on his two sole visits. He only falls down on a couple of stats (not won this season and draw).
He has never won over 6f (7f winner) but a fast pace, big field and good ground look ideal.
Jawwaal @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Citron Major @16/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
If you would like the rest of Nick Hardman's selections for today and the next 30 days you can trial his Big Race Tips service here https://bigracetips.co.uk